Iowa Poll: Branstad coasts in re-election bid
Copyright 2014, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.
The central dynamic in the race for Iowa governor hasn't changed, and neither have the top-line poll numbers.
The Des Moines Register's latest Iowa Poll gives Republican incumbent Terry Branstad a 14-point advantage over Democratic challenger Jack Hatch among likely voters, and suggests the governor remains popular with most Iowans, while his opponent remains an unknown quantity to nearly 3 in 10 Iowans.
But that doesn't mean Iowans are pleased with everything about Branstad. His job approval has dropped by double digits since an Iowa Poll in February, and large majorities of likely voters think he's got a problem with cronyism and hasn't lived up to key promises made in his last campaign.
Still, he finds smooth sailing in his re-election bid. Branstad is the choice of 48 percent of likely voters, compared to 34 percent who say they'll vote for Hatch. Three other candidates share 6 percent of the vote, and 10 percent are undecided.
The 14 percentage point margin between Branstad and Hatch is about the same as in a February Iowa Poll that did not include the names of third-party candidates, underscoring the static nature of the race and Hatch's inability to break through against a nearly universally known incumbent running for an unprecedented sixth term.
University of Northern Iowa political scientist Chris Larimer all but declared the race finished, noting the lack of movement even after two of three scheduled debates between Branstad and Hatch.
"If Hatch was going to make a move, he had to move those numbers after the debate, but he hasn't at all," Larimer said. "Nothing seems to be working, and voters don't seem to be taking to Hatch."
Iowans like where state is headed
Iowans overall continue to see the state headed in
the right direction, even as a large majority says the nation as a whole is on the wrong track.
Fifty-five percent of respondents say Iowa is headed in the right direction, compared with 31 percent who say it's on the wrong track. That right-track figure is up from earlier this year, but is largely in line with optimistic sentiments dating to early 2012.
Iowans are far more pessimistic about the situation nationally. Just 23 percent of Iowa Poll respondents say the nation is headed in the right direction, compared with 65 percent who say it's on the wrong track. That right direction figure has barely budged since September 2013, although the wrong track number is down slightly from previous polls over the past year.
James Blankers, 49, of Hospers said Branstad deserves credit for how much better Iowa is doing than the nation.
Blankers, who is a Republican and an airline pilot, said the governor does a good job of ensuring state government spends money only on what needs to be done.
"It'd be great to have all these great programs, but if we can't afford them, we can't afford them," he said.
Even as Iowans see the state headed in the right direction, Branstad's job approval ratings are the lowest they've been in nearly four years.
Fifty-one percent of poll respondents say they approve of the job Branstad is doing, while 38 percent disapprove. That's the lowest approval rating for Branstad since February 2011 — the month after he returned to office — and down 12 percentage points from the 63 percent approval rating he enjoyed in February. The new disapproval figure is the highest of his current term.
Those results are all the more striking when compared with job approval ratings for President Barack Obama and U.S. Sens. Tom Harkin and Chuck Grassley, whose numbers changed little in the latest poll.
Poll respondent Dean Schade, a retired union pipe-fitter and political independent who supported Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, said he's leaning Democratic this year because he's unimpressed with Branstad's efforts in office, particularly on economic issues.
"The only reason I'm supporting Hatch is because he's a Democrat and he's not Terry Branstad," said Schade, of Cedar Rapids. "Terry Branstad has been in there way too long. He's done nothing as far as I'm concerned."
29% don't know much about Hatch
Still, Branstad's approval job rating remains above 50 percent, meaning the slide probably isn't a major cause for concern in his re-election bid, Larimer said.
Among likely voters, Branstad continues to enjoy favorable feelings.
Fifty-five percent say they have a very favorable or mostly favorable view of the governor, compared with 43 percent with unfavorable opinions. Two percent aren't sure how they feel about him.
It's a different story for his Democratic opponent. Twenty-nine percent of respondents say they're not sure how they feel about Hatch, an indication that his campaign has been unable to raise his profile even after more than a year as a candidate.
Kelly Chambers, a registered Democrat from Des Moines, said she would vote for Branstad even though she doesn't believe he's accomplished much in his current term. The problem with Hatch, she said, is that she doesn't know anything about him.
"Usually I go by what I hear from other people, and I've not heard a whole lot about Jack Hatch," said Chambers, 55. She added, "If I had to pick somebody, it would be Terry Branstad because I know about him."
Views of Hatch are split and lean negative: 34 percent say they have a favorable view of him, compared to 37 percent with an unfavorable view.
"Even if Branstad's numbers are down on the approval rating, it's not like voters feel comfortable moving to Hatch's corner," Larimer said. "They may be less approving of Branstad, but these numbers suggest they don't feel confident enough to flock to Hatch."
Most likely voters believe criticisms
The poll also presented several of the criticisms the Branstad and Hatch campaigns have thrown at one another in TV ads. The poll asked respondents whether the criticisms are a big problem, a little problem or not a problem at all.
For all four accusations, more than 50 percent of likely voters call them problematic, underscoring the potency of negative campaigning in forming voters' opinions of candidates and providing insight into the approaches both campaigns have taken in defining their opponents.
Sixty-four percent of respondents perceive that Branstad has demonstrated a "pattern of cronyism" in helping friends and ousting those who disagree with him from government. Sixty-one percent believe Hatch, a developer, has a "pattern of mixing politics with business" as he taps tax credits to build low-income housing. Both accusations have been featured in TV ads and candidate rhetoric during the race so far.
Fifty-nine percent of likely voters say accusations that Branstad hasn't fulfilled campaign promises from 2010 are a problem. Fifty-one percent say it's problematic that Hatch, a state senator from Des Moines, doesn't understand the needs of the entire state.
The Iowa Poll of 546 likely voters in the 2014 general election was conducted Sept. 21-24 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The overall sample of 800 Iowans has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
— Staff writer Tony Leys contributed to this report.
About the poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted Sept. 21-24 for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on interviews with 800 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers contacted households with randomly selected landline and cellphone numbers. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent Census data.
Questions based on the sample of 800 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Questions based on a subsample of 546 likely voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register is prohibited.