Peterson: Beating Kansas State on Saturday would be epic, and here’s why
Randy PetersonMANHATTAN, Kan. — Let’s look closely at some of what Iowa State can accomplish with a victory during Saturday’s 2:30 p.m. regular-season finale at Kansas State.
Camping, Texas or Liberty bowls? We’ll get back to you on that next week. Before jumping into that, here’s what’s known:
The Cyclones are 7-4 and 5-3 in the Big 12. That’s the foundation for all the good stuff Matt Campbell’s second team can still do:
Most wins during a regular season: Eight for the first time since 2000 — since sideline radio reporter Ben Bruns was starring in the trenches for Dan McCarney’s team. It’s a lot better packing an eight-win season on the recruiting trail than seven.
Most conference wins since: Ever. The previous best was 5-3, also in 2000.
Fumble/no fumble: How many FBS teams didn’t lose a fumble during an entire regular season? The Cyclones can be the first.
Winning at Kansas State: Beating the Wildcats anywhere is a chore for Iowa State, but in Manhattan? The Cyclones haven’t done it since 37-23 in 2004.
Road warriors: No Iowa State team has won four conference road games in a season. That could be another first on Saturday.
LanRam: Joel Lanning already has done more than any college football player in the country this season, but he can add to a resume that includes 881 plays — 721 on defense, 42 on offense and 118 on special teams.
Lazard’s streak: Allen Lazard can finish this part of his career with receptions in 47 consecutive games.
Bowl prediction: I’m still saying Camping in Orlando – assuming a victory on Saturday, of course.
ISU-KSU breakdown
Iowa State rushing vs. Kansas State
Fresh off its best game this season, Iowa State’s offensive line is starting to get it. The unit was good against Baylor last Saturday, but there’s a gigantic but. David Montgomery hurt his ankle in the fourth quarter last Saturday. It’s bound to be a bit tender this Saturday, and with a bowl game coming up, it’s not like Iowa State needs him to continue being great. The Wildcats are third-best in the Big 12 against the rush, opponents getting 122.4 yards a game, but the Cyclones are on a rushing roll. They’ve exceeded 100 rushing yards in five of the past six games, including 208 at Texas Tech and 214 last Saturday at Baylor. With Montgomery’s ankle, it’s hard to give Iowa State an edge. ADVANTAGE: Kansas State.
Iowa State passing vs. Kansas State
This could be a big day for Zeb Noland, throwing against a team with the worst pass defense in the Big 12. It also could be a banner day for Allen Lazard and Hakeem Butler, too, a pair of receivers for whom the coaching staff seems to always find mismatches. Lazard is 6-foot-5. Butler is 6-6. They’ve dominated opponents in one-on-one situations. They’ve succeeded against double coverage. They’re playing against a secondary on Saturday that’ll be minus starting safety Kendall Adams. Top cornerback D.J. Reed also might not play. It’s the final opportunity for Lazard and Butler to impress all-Big 12 voters. And with David Montgomery hurt, passing could be the Cyclones’ best way to move the ball. ADVANTAGE: Iowa State.
Kansas State rushing vs. Iowa State
The Wildcats’ 193-yard rushing average is bolstered with quarterbacks who run as well as they pass. Expect Joel Lanning to spy Skylar Thompson wherever he goes on the field. Running back Alex Barnes is the Big 12’s No. 8 rusher, but he’s averaging just a bit better than 61 yards. If the quarterback doesn’t get away with a plethora of long runs, then the Cyclones should win this facet of the game. ADVANTAGE: Iowa State.
Kansas State passing vs Iowa State
Whoever guards Wildcat receiver Byron Pringle has the toughest assignment of the game. In last Saturday’s win against Oklahoma State, Pringle had scoring plays of 46, 47 and 60 yards. He also returned a punt 89 yards for another touchdown, so he’ll be a handful. Kansas State is down to its third quarterback of the season — with Skylar Thompson getting his third start in a row. He was 10-for-13 for 204 yards against the Cowboys, a game in which he also rushed for 93 yards. He has 251 rushing yards this season, so in that respect, he’s a prototypical Kansas State quarterback. ADVANTAGE: Iowa State.
Score: Iowa State 27, Kansas State 24.
Big 12 Predictions
Oklahoma must beat West Virginia on Saturday to solidify its No. 4 ranking on the College Football Poll.
And after Kansas coach David Beaty removed captain status from his players who snubbed Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield during last Saturday’s pre-game coin toss fiasco, here’s hoping that the new captains are courteous enough to properly greet the Oklahoma State captains this Saturday.
Kansas (0-8, 1-10) at No. 21 Oklahoma State (5-3, 8-3)
Time, TV: 11 a.m., FS1
Vegas line: Oklahoma State by 41 points
Prediction: It’s Kansas, for goodness' sake, but it’s also Mason Rudolph’s last game in Stillwater. One of the best quarterbacks in Cowboys history, Rudolph is coming off a 425-yard, three-touchdown game in last Saturday’s loss against Kansas State. He’s exceeded 4,000 passing yards for the second season in a row. The Cowboys are out of Big 12 title game consideration, but there’s still a chance for a good bowl game. Oklahoma 55, Kansas 3.
West Virginia (5-3, 7-4) at No. 5 Oklahoma (7-1, 10-1)
Time, TV: 2:45 p.m., ESPN
Vegas line: Oklahoma by 22½ points
Prediction: It’s not like West Virginia was winning this game anyway, but quarterback Will Grier won’t play. He’s got a finger injury, which means the Mountaineers have zero chance to win this game. Oklahoma has this thing called the College Football Playoffs within its grasp. It’s another opportunity for sometimes crotchety quarterback Baker Mayfield to impress Heisman Trophy voters. Oklahoma 38, West Virginia 17.
Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson has been with the Register for parts of five decades. Randy writes opinion and analysis of Iowa State football and basketball. You can reach Randy at rpeterson@dmreg.com or on Twitter at @RandyPete.