Can Steve King be defeated? History says probably not

For all the indignation ignited by his latest controversial statements, U.S. Rep. Steve King remains virtually unbeatable in his ardently conservative northwest Iowa congressional district.

That’s the consensus of Iowa Republicans inside and outside of the GOP-dominated 4th District, who say only an exceptional (and exceptionally conservative) candidate from within the party could oust the eight-term incumbent — one willing to embark on the political equivalent of a suicide mission, they say.

“A primary against Congressman King in 2018? I would be very surprised if there isn’t one,” said Andy Cable, a Republican activist from Eldora. “But I would also be very surprised if it’s successful.”

King drew rebukes from Republican Gov. Terry Branstad, Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann, fellow members of Congress and even White House spokesman Sean Spicer earlier this month after tweeting that “our civilization” can’t be “restored” with “someone else’s babies.”

The remark was made in support of an anti-immigrant European politician and was widely interpreted as racist. It’s also just the latest inflammatory remark King has made on the issues of race, culture and immigration in recent years.

But in electoral terms, it probably means very little, several Democrats and Republicans said. Even GOP leaders around the state who privately regard King, 67, as an embarrassment or worse see only a narrow path to voting him out of office — one that almost certainly depends on an intra-party challenge. The district's demographics are such that King has triumphed even in elections heavily favoring Democrats in Iowa.

Interviews with nearly a dozen Iowa Republicans this month revealed a growing fatigue with the congressman's antics, balanced by an acceptance of the political reality of the district he represents.

"I’m hopeful that one day the Republican Party will decide to get rid of its embarrassing member of Congress here," GOP activist and fundraiser Nick Ryan said with a sigh in an interview this month.

King's office has not responded to several interview requests from The Des Moines Register this month.

The 39-county 4th District encompasses Iowa’s conservative heartland, rendering most Democratic bids quixotic and likely ruling out moderate Chamber of Commerce-type Republican candidacies as well.

“There’s no prayer for a challenger that comes across as a moderate-to-liberal Republican,” said Mark Lundberg, a longtime GOP activist from Sioux County. “I can’t even imagine that being an option.”

Recent elections back up that belief. In 2016, state Sen. Rick Bertrand, R-Sioux City, foundered badly in a primary challenge to King. Bertrand, a real estate developer from the largest city in the district, got into the race late, struggled to raise money and made few public appearances before getting clobbered by almost 30 percentage points in the June primary.

Democrats likely face even longer odds.

The district includes almost 72,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats, according to the latest data from the Secretary of State’s Office, and many of those Republicans skew strongly conservative. It was northwest Iowa, for example, that drove socially conservative presidential candidates Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz to victories in the last three Iowa caucus campaigns.

Undaunted by the numbers and encouraged by a flood of fundraising following King's comments this month, Democrat Kim Weaver has announced she'll challenge him in 2018. Weaver, of Sheldon, ran against King in 2016, losing by almost 23 percentage points. Even if 2018 turns out to be a strong year for Democrats, she'll face an uphill challenge.

In an interview, Weaver said she knew even from the outset of her first run in 2015 that it might take more than one campaign cycle to introduce herself to voters and build a profile to mount a serious challenge. This time around, she said, she’s already seeing stronger fundraising, more help from volunteers and greater activism around the district.

“I would not be doing this again if I did not think it was a possibility,” she said. “Because trust me, it’s not easy.”

When asked how she could overcome Republicans’ strong partisan advantage, she noted that more than half of registered voters are either Democratic or independent.

“My approach is going to be to talk to everybody — not just Democrats,” she said. “We’re going to reach out to Republicans and no-party voters.”

The 2012 race illustrates how difficult the 4th can be for Democrats even under the best circumstances. New congressional district boundaries meant King was running for the first time in 21 north-central and northeast Iowa counties. His opponent was Christie Vilsack, the former Iowa first lady well-known across the state and well-funded by national Democratic groups. Also on the ballot that year was Democratic President Barack Obama, who built a massive turnout operation en route to victory in Iowa.

It didn't matter. Although the result was closer than in subsequent races, King defeated Vilsack by more than 8 percentage points and 30,000 votes. In the two elections since, King has cruised to victory, capturing 61 percent of the vote in both 2014 and 2016. Setting aside the Vilsack contest in 2012, King has won every race by at least 22 percentage points dating back to his first congressional run in 2002.

“If he is going to be replaced, it’s either going to be by his own choosing — retirement –— or he’s going to be beaten in a primary,” said Ryan, who backed Bertrand’s 2016 bid and has been explicit about his opposition to King, calling the congressman "a disgusting racist" in a tweet this month.

So what would a competitive candidate look like?

According to many Republican observers, the ideal replacement for Steve King would look a lot like Steve King — just without the tendency to make incendiary statements.

“He’s pretty dead-on for what the vast majority of voters like up here when it comes to economics, immigration issues and social issues. He fits very well up here,” Lundberg said, adding, “You’d have to have very conservative credentials to even make an attempt.”

That means someone with deep roots in the district and a fiercely conservative outlook on immigration, abortion, same-sex marriage, debt and deficits and other key issues — not to mention campaign-trail charisma and an ability to raise money.

“Ninety percent of his votes are the same as other Republicans,” Cable, the Eldora activist, said. “To beat him, you’re going to have to prove you’re better on those things, not just that you disagree with him on a few other things.”

Such Republicans do exist in the 4th District, party activists and officials said. Some have even been approached about running. But on top of those ideological, financial and personality requirements, they have to bring something else to the table: a willingness to risk their political future on a challenge to a well-known and still-popular incumbent.

One prominent Republican in the district described such a run as a “kamikaze mission.”

“It would have to be a pretty strong or pretty unique Republican to take him out in that district in a primary,” said Brent Siegrist, a former Iowa House speaker from Council Bluffs who ran for Congress against King in the 2002 GOP primary. “There’s not much of an opening there, but I suppose there’s a small opening.”

If Iowa Republicans are looking for a model in ousting a controversial congressman, they might look to Kansas, where a GOP challenger ousted an incumbent in an overwhelmingly Republican district just last year.

In that case, the incumbent was U.S. Rep. Tim Huelskamp, an arch conservative who was elected in 2010 and so alienated congressional leadership that he was stripped of a seat on the House Agriculture Committee.

That led much of the Kansas ag establishment to organize against him and cleared the way for another conservative Republican, Roger Marshall, to mount a well-organized and well-funded challenge last summer. Marshall prevailed and is now a freshman congressman with a seat on the Ag Committee.

The comparison is imperfect, said Jeff Roe, a national political strategist who was involved in efforts to unseat Huelskamp, because King remains much more popular in his district than Huelskamp ever was.

Roe, who observed King and polled on his popularity as the campaign manager for Cruz’s 2016 presidential campaign, called the congressman “nasty” — and meant it as a compliment.

“By the numbers, he’s probably the most popular Republican congressman within his district that I’ve ever seen” Roe said.

But Huelskamp’s fall — driven by discontent with his work as a legislator — may provide clues for a challenge to King. If there’s a winning argument to make against King, several political observers said, it’s not that he’s racist but that he’s ineffective.

Iowa state Sen. David Johnson, an independent former Republican from Ocheyedan who represents some of the most conservative counties in King’s district, dismissed the congressman as not just a “bigot” and a “bully,” but one who gets nothing done.

“I would hope that Republicans would realize he has accomplished zero in Washington, D.C.,” Johnson said. “My vote to increase the gas tax by 10 cents a gallon has done more to get Highway 20 on a schedule to be completed than anything he has done in the Capitol. Sooner or later, you’re going to get some Republicans who realize that.”

Democratic political strategist Jeff Link said that’s the approach he would take against King, too.

“Everyone gets so exercised about the outrageous comments that they ignore the biggest problem with him,” Link said. “Which is that he collects a salary from the federal government and doesn't do a thing to benefit his constituents.”

“If you focus on his utter ineffectiveness,” Link went on, “it’s hard to defend that.”

Although there’s been talk, it’s not immediately apparent that a challenge to King is actually in the works for 2018. Republicans across the state expressed doubt that a candidate with the profile necessary to challenge King would be brave enough to try.

Ryan, the operative who aided Bertrand’s 2016 campaign, acknowledged as much, but said his door is open.

“Am I out actively recruiting anyone? No,” he said. “If anybody is interested and wants to talk, am I willing to help them? Yes, without question.”