Iowa Poll: Donald Trump's approval rating rises, but he remains underwater

Copyright Des Moines Register & Tribune Co. 2018

Iowans’ views on President Donald Trump and the country’s direction have improved sharply in recent weeks, although both remain underwater.

Forty-four percent of Iowans approve of Trump’s performance as president, and 40 percent see the country headed in the right direction, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

Fifty-one percent, conversely, disapprove of the job Trump’s doing, and 49 say the country’s on the wrong track.

Still, those figures represent marked improvement from December. In that Iowa Poll, just 35 percent approved of Trump’s performance and 60 percent disapproved. Twenty-nine percent of Iowans in December said the country was headed in the right direction, while 60 percent said it was on the wrong track.

The new poll, conducted by Selzer and Co. of Des Moines, questioned 801 Iowa adults Jan. 28-31 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The previous Iowa Poll was conducted eight weeks earlier, Dec. 3-6.

That eight-week period was a consequential one in Washington, D.C., and generally positive for Trump and Republicans.

On Dec. 22, Trump signed into law a major tax reform package that will lower income tax rates for many Americans. On Jan. 22, he signed a temporary spending bill to end a three-day government shutdown that was at least partially blamed on congressional Democrats. And on Jan. 30, while the Iowa Poll was in the field, Trump appeared on primetime television to deliver his first State of the Union address.

The upswing coincides with a national rise in Trump’s approval rating, likely driven by those developments as well as fewer than average “self-inflicted controversies” in recent weeks, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan elections newsletter published by the University of Virginia.

But it’s still not great news for the president or his fellow Republicans in a state he won by 9.5 points in 2016.

“He’s still in a pretty weak position, just not as weak as he was,” Kondik said. “Trump at 44 percent potentially still threatens Republicans down the ballot in Iowa, be it in the governor’s race, a couple of competitive U.S. House races and maybe in some competitive legislative seats.”

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That new data show Trump’s job approval rose within his natural base since December — by 9 points among Republicans, 9 points among born again Christians and 17 points among rural residents — but also among demographics groups that generally have been more skeptical of his presidency.

In that same time, Trump’s approval rating spiked by 14 percentage points among Iowans making less than $50,000 a year, by 13 points among women, and by 10 points among self-described independents.

Poll respondent Jessica Eggleston, 40, of Milo, described several positive improvements she’s seen since Trump took office — starting with her retirement savings. The tax reform, she said, was an “awesome thing,” and she’s appreciated the president’s tougher line against undocumented immigrants, his emphasis on law and order, and defense of religious freedom.

“I honestly believe that Trump has a heart for America,” said Eggleston, a stay-at-home mom and political independent. “He wants to get rid of the deep state corruption.”

As with his overall job approval, though, Trump remains underwater with women, independents and lower-income Iowans overall despite the gains since December.

It’s a similar story with Iowans’ perception of the country’s direction. While Iowans as a whole remain pessimistic, positive feelings spiked among women, independents, Republicans, born again Christians and Iowans making under $50,000 — all by double digits.

Among rural residents, belief that the country is on the right track surged by 21 percentage points in two months.

The January Iowa Poll also tested Trump’s popularity. As with his job approval rating, he’s underwater among Iowans, with 45 percent holding a favorable view compared to 53 percent viewing him unfavorably.

The rising opinions don’t say much for Trump’s re-election as president, though.

When asked how they could see themselves voting in 2020, just 26 percent of likely voters say they’ll definitely vote to re-elect Trump. Forty-eight percent say they would definitely vote for another candidate and another 20 percent say they’d consider someone else. (Likely voters represent a subset of 656 of the 801 respondents who participated in the Iowa Poll, giving these figures a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.)

Among independents, 51 percent say they’ll definitely vote for someone else and another 21 percent say they’d consider another option.

Poll respondent Ron Ballantyne, a farmer from rural Plymouth, said he’d vote for a rock before supporting Trump in 2020. The 66-year-old described himself as a “right down the center” independent, having voted for Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama over the years. But he can’t abide Trump, whom he sees as a “maniac” and a “bully.”

“I feel like he wants to become a dictator. I really do,” Ballantyne said. “I don’t think he can with the way the Constitution is written, but he seems to be getting away with more than any president I’ve ever seen.”

The Iowa Poll finds solid support for the ongoing special counsel investigation into Russian meddling and potential cooperation with the Trump campaign during the 2016 election.

Fifty-four percent say the special counsel is “doing the right thing” in investigating possible connections between Russia and Trump, while 33 percent believe the counsel, Robert Mueller, is not doing the right thing, and 13 percent aren’t sure.

Those results are notably partisan: 82 percent of Democrats support the investigation, while a 54 percent majority of Republicans oppose it. In the middle, 52 percent of independents say Mueller is doing the right thing, compared to 33 percent who say he’s not.

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Jan. 28-31 for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 801 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age and sex to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the sample of 801 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to the Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.