Big 12 Predictions: Who wins the league and where does Iowa State finish?

Oklahoma will be the Big 12’s first regular-season unbeaten since Texas in 2009.

Sooner quarterback Baker Mayfield will be the league’s MVP.

And rumors of Baylor’s immediate demise are greatly exaggerated.

Welcome to this drama-filled conference, where the Sooners are loaded, the Bears are a season away from being irrelevant, and Matt Campbell is healing a fan base that has suffered through five seasons of just 10 Big 12 wins.

Oklahoma will be a top-5 team when the preseason rankings come out — not only based on reaching college football’s Final Four last season, but also because of what Bob Stoops’ team returns.

As for Baylor — there’s still enough talent returning that Jim Grobe’s sudden coaching transition won’t be as rocky as some think.

Oklahoma

Why No. 1?

There’s more to this very explosive offense than Mayfield and a talented tailback in Samaje Perine.

Consider also receiver Mark Andrews.

The 6-foot-5 super talent caught 19 passes for 318 yards — and seven touchdowns last season. That’s about one TD for every 2.7 receptions.

The team's Achilles' heel, if there is one, is at linebacker, where there’s not much returning experience.

Nonetheless, Mayfield and the offense should be potent enough to off-set any deficiency on defense. His 25 touchdown passes against Big 12 opponents led the passing-crazy league, and his 69.3 percent completion rate in nine conference games was best, too.

Potential issues:

You don’t have to scan far down the schedule to see that non-conference wins won’t be gimmes — a season-opening roadie against Tom Herman’s Houston outfit in Dallas, and then back home two weeks later to face an Ohio State team anxious to build a quick resume.

That pair of opponents went 25-2 last season, and then after a week off, it’s the Big 12 opener at TCU.

Interestingly, the Sooners have a second in-season week off, this one just before the Dec. 3 rivalry game against Oklahoma State in Dallas.

Here’s one more hazard along Oklahoma’s road to a regular-season 12-0 -- Stoops brings his team to Jack Trice Stadium for a Thursday nighter on Nov. 3.

Strange things can happen during mid-week night games in Ames. If you don’t believe it, Google “Oklahoma State and Jeff Woody and upset.”

Peterson’s 2016 record prediction:

12-0 (9-0 Big 12).

TCU

Why No. 2?

Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill isn’t Trevone Boykin, but that doesn’t mean the team needs to brace itself for a decline at quarterback. Hill has the ability to produce whopping passing stats, but word out of Fort Worth is that he’s still battling spring game sensation Foster Sawyer for the No. 1 job.

And it's not a bad thing, having two guys capable of playing the team’s most important position.

However, the strength of this team will be its defense, as is usually the case with Gary Patterson-coached outfits.

Seven starters return, and it’s an especially strong group of linebackers.

Up front, opposing tackles will have trouble blocking 6-4, 250-pound end Josh Carraway, who had five sacks last season. He’s disruptive, and he’ll handle double-teams.

The secondary is above average, too.

Potential issues:

It’s never good when a team’s only fulltime returning offensive starter is left guard Joseph Noteboom. There's no offense to this 320-pounder, but some experience is better than none.

At least the Horned Frogs get a scheduling break; inexperienced players can become experienced while opening the season (in order) against South Dakota State, Arkansas, Iowa State and SMU. The first three of that four are at home, by the way.

Boykin is gone, and so are top receiver Josh Doctson and best rusher Aaron Green.

With a superior offense, TCU won five games by seven points or fewer last season. An offensive decline could mean those close games going the other way.

Peterson’s 2016 record prediction:

10-2 (7-2 Big 12).

Baylor

Why No. 3?

Aside from Grobe being the interim replacement (for now), his assistants haven’t changed — and they’re the ones with the intimate player-coach contact, not the head coach.

The Bears will be good — as long as quarterback Seth Russell and running back Shock Linwood are around.

There’s work to be done in rebuilding an offensive line, the defense continues to be under appreciated, and the team speed is among the best in the Big 12.

They probably won't be averaging the FBS-leading 48.1 points a game they did last season, but the offense won’t exactly be stuck in the mud (or turf), either.

"As a coach, winning is important,” Grobe said at his introductory press conference. “At the same time, I want to assure the Baylor family that every decision we will make in this football program will be made with Baylor University, her students and our student-athletes in mind."

That’s a great first step en route to another patsy non-conference schedule that consists of Northwestern State, Lamar and Rice.

Potential issues:

While this season should be OK, it’s what happens once it's over that’s still up in the air. It’s tough enough recruiting to a scandal-ridden school, let alone trying to lure players away from home who don’t know who will be coaching them in 2017 and beyond.

What remains of Baylor’s administration can quickly remove Grobe’s interim status, or brace for the for the fallout.

Regarding the football program alone, the team is already down to 70 scholarship players, which means depth could be a problem.

Baylor faces Oklahoma State at home. The toughest road tests are at Oklahoma, Texas and possibly West Virginia.

Peterson’s 2016 record prediction:

10-2 (7-2 Big 12).

Oklahoma State

Why No. 4?

Quarterback Mason Rudolph is 12-3 as a starter. He’s coming off a 3,700-yard, 21-touchdown season during which he shared time with J.W. Walsh, so there’s a lot of proven weaponry behind the center.

James Washington is among the Big 12’s best receivers after catching 53 passes for 1,087 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. He averaged 20.5 yards on each catch; that’s eye-popping, too.

And get this: Starters are everywhere on the offensive line, although that unit was no better than average last season.

Rudolph must be a play-maker; there’s still not a big-time running back ready to become a 1,000-yard rusher.

Potential issues:

The Cowboys won four games by seven points or fewer last season, and you rarely can count on that happening in successive seasons.

How do you replace all-Big 12 defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah? That's a good question.

And the offense? It’ll continue to be a one-dimensional until they find a rushing attack. Last season, Oklahoma State ranked 114th nationally, averaging just 126.8 rushing yards per game. Even in a passing league, it’s tough to win without a hint of ground game.

The Cowboys’ final two regular-season games are roadies against Big 12 heavies TCU and Oklahoma, something else to think about while considering if this is the season coach Mike Gundy’s team makes that jump to the conference’s mountain top.

Peterson’s 2016 record prediction:

9-3 (6-3 Big 12).

West Virginia

Why No. 5?

Don’t be misled into believing the Mountaineers again will feature a rushing attack that was 16th nationally last season. That segment will be good, but it’ll be back to the air with improved quarterback Skyler Howard.

He completed 28 of 51 passes for 532 yards and five touchdowns in a 43-42 Cactus Bowl win against Arizona State, and there’s no reason to believe that he’ll regress.

He’s got a plethora of talented receivers, and an offensive line that oozes with experience – it might even be the best offensive line in the conference.

All of which means Howard could be in for a huge season – and he wasn’t bad in 2015, while throwing for 3,145 yards and 26 touchdowns.

“He should be a ton better than last year,” coach Dana Holgorsen told reporters during the spring.

Potential issues:

Holgorsen continues on thin ice despite finishing 2015 with a Cactus Bowl flourish.

While his offense should be solid, the defense must mature rapidly during non-conference games against Missouri, Youngstown State and BYU.

And speaking of that schedule, what if the Mountaineers start out 0-3 against that mostly salty trio?

The heat really will be on Holgorsen’s backside. At least the first two games are at home, and the BYU game is in Landover, Md.

There’s not a lot of defensive depth, however Noble Nwachukwu (8.5 sacks in 2015) should be one of the top ends in the Big 12.

Peterson’s 2016 record prediction:

8-4 (5-4 Big 12).

Texas Tech

Why No. 6?

Just because place-kicker Clayton Hatfield was the only Red Raider to make the pre-season all-Big 12 team, doesn’t mean a season of gloom in Lubbock.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is good, very good, and he just happens to play in a conference that usually has high-caliber quarterbacks.

Losing big-play receiver Jakeem Grant is significant, but at least some of his 1,268 receiving yards will go to also-talented Ian Sadler, who averaged 14.2 yards a catch. Texas Tech, it seems, always has many first-rate receivers, and 2016 won’t be any different.

And if an inexperienced offensive line has trouble protecting Mahomes, the shifty junior has ability to run like a tailback.

Potential issues:

Improving on last season’s 4-5 Big 12 record starts with slowing down opponents. Tech was 126th nationally in total defense in 2015 — and there’s not a lot of hope it’ll be greatly improved.

Only three starters return on that side of the ball, and it’s not like the Red Raiders are one of the top ball-control teams in the country.

Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s luster is lessoning, too, so that could be a distraction if the early season trends hay-wire.

Mahomes totaled 5,100 yards in 2015, including 4,653 by passing. He was the third player in Big 12 history with that much one-season production — and he’ll have to be just as good, if not better, to offset the team’s inability to play solid defense.

Peterson’s 2016 record prediction:

6-6 (4-5 Big 12).

Texas

Why No. 7?

Some mags call Texas a Big 12 title contender, which seems like a stretch for a team with a coach whose seat is hot. They’re looking at the home schedule, which includes Baylor, TCU and West Virginia, and a neutral-site game against Oklahoma.

This could be the best offense since Charlie Strong became the coach three seasons ago. That’s based on an upgrade at quarterback with Shane Buechele, and at running back, where improved D’Onta Foreman returns.

The Horns were shut out against Iowa State, scored seven points in a loss at TCU, and got only a field goal in their season-opening loss at Notre Dame last season. Anything offensively will be an improvement.

The secondary is loaded with speed, but the talent is iffy.

Potential issues:

This program is coming off consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1988-89, and Texas fans don’t like it. Some weren’t overjoyed when Strong was hired, and they’ll certainly be angry if his team doesn’t get off to a good start.

Doing that could be tough, considering the season-opener is against Notre Dame (in Austin). Other opponents among the first five are at Cal, at Oklahoma State, and against Oklahoma in Dallas.

UTEP is the only patsy, so realistically, the Longhorns could be 1-4 when ISU arrives in Austin for an Oct. 15 game.

Peterson’s 2016 record prediction:

5-7 (3-6 Big 12).

Iowa State

Why No. 8?

It’s crazy how much enthusiasm Campbell has injected into this program since November — and the offense isn’t bad, either

Tailback Mike Warren and receiver Allen Lazard were pre-season all-conference picks, while the only other Big 12 school with more than two on offense was Oklahoma, with three.

That’s impressive, and now add experienced quarterback Joel Lanning to the mix, and that trio combines for one of the best skill positions in school history.

Warren and Lazard are as good as anybody at their respective positions. Lanning could be undervalued in a league that’s always heavy on quarterbacks.

Need more? Defensive lineman Demond Tucker will be among the Big 12’s best, and a secondary that consists of Brian Peavy, Jomal Wiltz, Mike Johnson and Kamari Cotton-Moya will be improved.

Potential issues:

Two words: Offensive line.

Returning starters combine for 24 starts, including 23 by left tackle Jake Campos — and he missed spring ball after undergoing hip surgery.

“We’ll be better than people think we’ll be,” Campos said last month.

Iowa State has had a few good linemen in recent seasons, but the problem has been keeping them healthy. Compounding this inexperienced unit is the schedule — there’s not a lot of time to learn while playing at Iowa on the second Saturday, and then opening Big 12 play at TCU the following week.

The defense returns to a four-man front, which should free Tucker from being double-teamed on every play.

“Demond can be as good as Demond wants to be,” Campbell said of the 6-foot, 295-pound senior. “There were flashes of some really good ability last season. Now it's a matter of consistency.”

Peterson’s 2016 record prediction:

5-7 (3-6 Big 12).

Kansas State

Why No. 9?

The assumption is that Kansas State won’t be in a quarterback quandry again after its first series of the season.

On the Wildcats’ first possession — on their first snap of the season against against South Dakota — Jesse Ertz (of Burlington) suffered a season-ending ACL during a 5-yard scamper. His backup went down in the next game, so the Wildcats ended up using a former walk-on the remainder of the season.

Even if Ertz stays healthy, the offense isn’t likely to set the Big 12 afire. The defense, though, should be all right.

Safety Dante Barrett returns after also suffering a season-ending injury in the opener, and he’s got 27 starts on his resume.

These guys must stay healthy; otherwise, it will be a long season of Kansas State fans watching Big 12 offenses score lots of points while wondering if this will be Bill Snyder’s final coaching season.

Potential issues:

There’s just nine starters — total — returning from a team that won three of its final four regular-season games just to achieve bowl eligibility in 2015.

There’s just three starters returning on offense, which further complicates the issue in this offensive-minded Big 12 world.

Kansas State lost six games in a row for the first time in school history, and the only reason it beat Iowa State was because of the Cyclones’ faulty play-calling at the end of the game.

That gift of a 38-35 win on a field goal with 7 seconds remaining cinched the biggest comeback win in school history after trailing 35-14 at halftime.

Circumstances like that aren’t likely to happen this season.

Peterson’s 2016 record prediction:

3-9 (1-8 Big 12).

Kansas

Why No. 10?

Quarterback Ryan Willis set a school freshman record with 35 completions for 330 yards last season against Texas Tech, and that’s at least a start for a team that went oh-fer last season.

However — he threw 10 interceptions and just nine touchdown passes, and that’s a statistical ratio that must improve.

This team lost in the Big 12 last season by an average of 35.8 points a game, but as Phil Steele so cleverly wrote in his magazine:

“This year’s Kansas team would be favored by double-digits over last year’s squad.”

Potential issues:

They’ll probably be celebrating the end of a 15-game losing streak, providing the Jayhawks beat Rhode Island in the season-opener.

After that?

Bring on basketball.

Kansas hasn’t beaten a Big 12 road opponent since 2008, and that’s unlikely to change — with games at Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Kansas State this season.

Willis can be a decent quarterback; it’s just that most of the talent around him isn’t so decent.

This is just David Beaty’s second season as the coach. He inherited a horrible program, and it’ll be a while before it improves significantly.

Peterson’s 2016 record prediction:

1-11 (0-9 Big 12).