Peterson peers into his Big 12 expansion crystal ball
There’s not a perfect fit — or even a natural one — when talking about Big 12 Conference expansion. That’s unless the four defectors return. And that’s unlikely, despite Kansas State football coach Bill Snyder saying he knows of two that would like re-admittance.
So we’re forced to extend beyond the conference’s so-called footprint when looking at the two or four schools the Big 12 might welcome before this 2016 football season ends.
Don’t get hung up on distance; BYU is 1,900 miles from West Virginia, and 1,500 miles separate the ACC's Boston College and Miami, and there are 1,300 miles between the Big Ten’s Rutgers and Nebraska.
Major college sports teams travel on chartered jets. Furthermore, there’s little regard anymore for fan convenience.
So, essentially, Bob Bowlsby’s expansion buffet is the world of non-Power Five colleges and universities.
What recommendations will he provide his board when this process concludes?
Texas governor Greg Abbott tweeted Thursday that “Big 12 expansion is a non-starter unless it includes University of Houston,” so how much impact will that have?
Stay tuned. Storylines will abound in the conference, and I’m not referring only to Baylor’s scandal-ridden program. A potential expansion will continue to create a few headlines, too, and there’s a good chance it’ll come from this list of 10.
So for the sake of conversation, let’s use the recruiting star system to rank the candidates, and let’s assume the Big 12 will go all-in with four new additions:
The Favorite:
Houston
Location: Houston, Texas
Current conference: American Athletic
Pro: Beat the Pac-12 in snatching the Cougs from the American Athletic Conference. The football program is strong, and someday Tom Herman will be the highest-paid college coach in America. The basketball program isn’t horrible, and the school resides in the fourth-largest city in America. There are 1,900 Iowa State alums living in the Houston area, fwiw.
Con: A fifth Texas school?
Get over it. There’s enough recruits in Texas to go around. It’s easy travel for Iowa State fans living in Iowa — by air, at least.
Big 12 fit: 5 stars
Chance of an invite: 60 percent
The Next Three:
BYU
Current conference: Independent
Location: Provo, Utah
Pro: It’s a national brand — not Notre Dame national, but it’s the best non-Power Five program out there. If you’re worried about long road trips during a school week, this is a school that could be added for football only, and that’s attractive, too, although the Big 12 isn’t high on the idea. The Cougars have a glossy 43-22 football record over the past five seasons. The average home crowd is 58,532. There are 624 Iowa State grads living in Utah — for the record.
Con: Never on Sunday, but I’m doubtful that’s a deal-breaker. Some in the Big 12 play Sunday basketball games, and some of the Olympic sports also compete on Sundays. Trips would be long, especially to West Virginia, but other conferences include long road trips — we just don’t hear about them as much. There’s no likely geographic partner, if Boise State or Colorado State don’t make the cut.
Big 12 fit: 4 stars
Chance of an invite: 55 percent
Cincinnati
Current Conference: American Athletic
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
Pro: Location. Location. Location. That might be this school’s biggest selling point — that and their basketball program. It’s a pseudo partner for West Virginia, something Bob Huggins’ boss, Gordon Gee, has wanted since the day the Mountaineers joined the Big 12. Locally, the school is in Iowa State coach Matt Campbell’s Ohio recruiting wheelhouse.
Con: It’s not a huge brand name in any sport, but that’s only a so-so con. It’s overshadowed in its state by Ohio State, but that’s not exactly horrific, either. Here’s one: Cincinnati isn’t a member of the exclusive American Association of Universities, but neither are seven of the current Big 12 schools.
Big 12 fit: 4 stars
Chance of an invite: 50 percent
Connecticut
Current conference: American Athletic
Location: Storrs, Conn.
Pro: This school will be good for what already is a very good basketball conference. It has four NCAA men’s basketball titles (Kansas has three), and the UConn women have 10, including the most recent four.
Con: It won’t improve Big 12 football — the Huskies are 8-17 in coach Bob Diaco’s (a former Iowa player) two seasons. The average home football attendance last season was 28,224 in the 41,000-seat Rentschler Field. Offsetting these negatives is the fact that this school can bring to the Big 12 huge fan bases in New York, Boston and throughout the Northeastern United States.
Big 12 fit: 3 stars
Chance of an invite: 45 percent
Maybe:
Boise State
Current conference: Mountain West
Location: Boise, Idaho
Pro: This football-dominated school has played in 15 consecutive bowl games, including three Fiestas. The Broncos have been among the Associated Press’ final Top 10 five times, most recently in eighth at the end of the 2011 season. They could be a travel partner for BYU.
Con: Athletically, this is pretty much just a football school. The men’s basketball team is 0-7 in NCAA Tournaments, the most recent two coming in First Four rounds — not a sport that Broncos fans talk about around the water cooler.
Big 12 fit: 3 stars
Chance of an invite: 42 percent
Memphis
Current conference: American Athletic
Location: Memphis, Tenn.
Pro: FedEx is so motivated to get this school into the Big 12 that it’ll pay major bucks to sponsor the conference’s championship football game. That can’t be overlooked. City leaders were among the first to court conference officials, and that’s probably a tad significant, too. The football team last season beat Kansas by 32 points, Cincinnati by seven, Ole Miss by 13, and lost by just a point to a 13-1 Houston program.
Con: New coach Tubby Smith has some work to do in making the men’s basketball program relevant again. The Tigers haven’t been to an NCAA Tournament since the 2013-14 season. NCAA participation is the bar that’s used these days in determining basketball success. (If anyone can do it, it’s Tubby, by the way). It’ll be interesting to see how his team attracts fans in a city that also includes the NBA’s Memphis Grizzlies.
Big 12 fit: 3 stars
Chance of an invite: 35 percent
Central Florida
Current conference: American Athletic
Location: Orlando, Fla.
Pro: An Iowa State coach told me last spring that this school would be high among considerations — and not only because Disney World makes it an attractive destination trip for fans. It’s a mega media market, and enrollment was third nationally — behind Ohio State and Arizona State — in 2015. The Knights beat Baylor 52-42 in the 2013 Fiesta Bowl.
Con: The Big 12 doesn’t need a Florida-based school just to get a recruiting football hold in that state. Everyone recruits Florida, anyway. UCF’s most recent NCAA basketball tournament was 2005 — under coach Kirk Speraw, now is an assistant at Iowa. The men’s basketball record the past three seasons is 37-54. It was 42-22 during the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons. The women’s basketball program is 54-99 during those same five seasons. (Cedar Rapids native Katie Abrahamson-Henderson is the new women’s coach.)
Big 12 fit: 2 stars
Chance of an invite: 20 percent
Doubtful:
Colorado State
Current conference: Mountain West
Location: Fort Collins, Colo.
Pro: This has more of a Big 12 feel than any potential candidate, and that’s probably because Big Brother Colorado was in the Big Eight/Big 12 for the latter half of the 20th century — and right up until 2011. This school is in the midst of building a $225 million on-campus football stadium, and it’s reportedly on schedule to open in 2017. And there’s also the Larry factor. How robust would the response be if Larry Eustachy coached inside Hilton Coliseum again? Despite some past warts, he’d receive a standing ovation with cheers so loud that it would rattle the backboards.
Con: While nearby Denver boasts the nation’s 18th-largest television market, Colorado is the school with whom most people in Colorado associate. Too many other candidates have too much more to offer.
Big 12 fit: 2 stars
Chance of an invite: 15 percent
Peterson: Eustachy returning to Hilton would be epic
Tulane
Current conference: American Athletic
Location: New Orleans, La.
Pro: Its Proximity to Bourbon Street is significant to fans. Solid academics, including American Association of Universities membership, is import to CEOs interested in adding another noted research university to the conference. AD Troy Dannen’s close relationship with Bowlsby might be an over-rated plus.
Con: Over the past five years, Green Wave football has a 17-45 record, while men’s basketball went 80-85. Devlin Fieldhouse, where the basketball team plays, seats just 4,100.
Big 12 fit: 1 star
Chance of an invite: 10 percent
South Florida
Current conference: American Athletic
Location: Tampa, Fla.
Pro: Nielsen says the school resides in the nation’s 11th-largest media market. For now, the Bulls play in the NFL Bucs’ Raymond James Stadium, and that’s neat. What’s not so neat is that USF averaged just 26,578 in that 66,000-seat stadium.
Con: There’s an investigation going on, with the NCAA looking into alleged academic fraud in the men’s basketball program. The Big 12 doesn’t need more potential baggage. There’s already Baylor, and another potential disaster won’t sit well with CEOs who already agreed that what’s happened in Waco has soiled the reputation of everyone in the league, if not nationally.
Big 12 fit: 1 star
Chance of an invite: 5 percent