ELECTIONS

GOP memo: Republicans reach milestone in early voting in Iowa

Jennifer Jacobs
jejacobs@dmreg.com
Republicans say they've reached a milestone in early voting in Iowa.

Republicans say they have surpassed Democrats in the number of early votes cast by their party members in Iowa for the first time in recent elections history.

Democrats had mastered the early vote strategy, realizing they could overcome the GOP's traditional Election Day voter turnout advantage by harvesting thousands of absentee ballots. State law allows for early voting to begin 40 days before Election Day.

The GOP was significantly behind the Democrats in absentee ballots at this point in the last couple elections - nearly 57,000 votes short in 2012 and 16,000 short in 2010. But as of Wednesday, 305 more Republicans than Democrats had returned their ballots to elections officials, either by mail or in person at satellite voting stations or county elections offices, Republican strategists say.

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said in a statement shared with The Des Moines Register: "We've completely revamped our ground game, putting an emphasis on turning out low-propensity voters before Election Day, and it's working. The Democrats can spin all they want but they are in trouble in a blue state."

Longtime Iowa Democratic strategist Jeff Link dismissed the GOP spin.

"They are selling a story on early vote like they sold the whole Joni Ernst tale. We will win early vote. Period," Link said.

Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst and Democratic U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley are engaged in one of the most contentious U.S. Senate races in the nation, fighting to replace retiring Democratic U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin. The two rivals are so close in the polls - Ernst is up about 2.5 points in rolling averages - that the outcome of early voting could be particularly consequential in that race.

Iowa Democratic Party officials say they think Republicans are simply encouraging their base to vote early, while Democrats are "expanding the midterm electorate and are turning out non-midterm voters." A total of 18,000 more Democrats have requested absentee ballots than Republicans at this point, and "we expect those ballots to flood in over the final days," party spokeswoman Christina Freundlich told the Register.

In Iowa, Democrats have traditionally claim victory among the early ballots, while Republicans win the ballots cast on Election Day. Recent polling shows Braley leads Ernst among early voters, but a majority of Iowans have yet to hit the ballot box, and Ernst leads with those later voters.

The last time Republicans surpassed the Democrats in early voting was in 1998, a former Iowa GOP chairman said.

As the parties wage a fierce battle to turn out their members, votes from independents also will be a key factor in Election Day results.

Here's a memo from Mark Stephenson, co-founder at the Washington, D.C.-based data targeting company Cardinal Insights, who is doing work for the RNC in Iowa:

TO: Joni Ernst for US Senate; Republican Party of Iowa; Republican National Committee; National Republican Senatorial Committee; Branstad for Governor

FROM: Mark Stephenson – Partner, Cardinal Insights

SUBJECT: State of Iowa Absentee/Early Vote Data

DATE: October 22, 2014

With 13 days left in absentee and early voting, Republicans have reached an historic milestone - surpassing Democrats in absentee and early vote (AB/EV) returns – an achievement that has never occurred in modern day Iowa early voting. This Republican advantage poses a major challenge for Iowa Democrats, who historically rely heavily on absentee and early vote leads to win elections.

Absentee and early voting has been underway in Iowa for several weeks, with ballots sent out on or about September 25th. After securing the Republican nomination in June, in close partnership and collaboration with the RNC, NRSC, Republican Party of Iowa and Branstad for Governor campaign, our team at the Joni Ernst for US Senate campaign planned, and is now executing, the most organized, robust and targeted data and analytics-driven grassroots and AB/EV effort that Iowa has ever seen. This memo illustrates important demographics and analytics in regards to the state of AB/EV data in Iowa as of October 22, 2014.

In short, the current state of affairs underscores a very troubling statistical vote projection for Democrat Congressman Bruce Braley's campaign.

Republicans learned important lessons in 2010 and 2012 and have turned a historical deficit into a tactical strength going into Election Day 2014. Republicans should be proud of their efforts in the state to this point; however, their work is far from done. As improvements to the Republican AB/EV operation have started to materialize, Democrats are rapidly changing strategies and investing heavily to improve their numbers so they are able to cling to their stale absentee and early vote narrative. As a result, we should expect Democrats will regain the AB return advantage in the coming days – but doing so at the expense of their Election Day vote share, as their recently recruited high propensity voters begin returning their ballots.

The Democrats' response to our sustained, targeted and successful grassroots mobilization was anticipated and not only is it flawed, but it ironically resembles the same strategy they accused Republicans of employing no less than two weeks ago. They are now resorting to turning out likely midterm voters that our analytics projected would have voted on Election Day – cutting directly into the ballot share percentage that Congressman Braley expects to receive on November 4th.

Here are six important demographic and statistical points showing the state of absentee and early vote data as of today, October 22, 2014:

1) In an unprecedented ground game mobilization, Republicans surpassed Democrats in AB/EV Returns for the first time in modern Iowa AB/EV history on October 22, 2014.

§ Today, cumulative Iowa registered Republican returns/early votes surpassed Democrats, to take a lead of 305 returned ballots. This is the first time registered Republicans have surpassed Democrats in returns.

§ In 2010, the lead for Democrat returns at this point in the cycle was 16,426 ballots. In 2012, that gap was 56,908.

§ For 2014, Republican absentee returns are up by nearly 50% over 2010, compared to only 18% for Democrats.

2) Republicans lead with in-person Early Voting, a place where Democrats historically have relied on large advantages going into Election Day.

§ Republicans lead in-person absentee and satellite voting 24,818 to 24,483.

§ Since in-person Early Voting began on 9/25, 19 total days, Republicans have led in 14 of those days.

3) The outstanding absentee ballot request gap is closer in 2014 than ever before at this point in the cycle.

§ Currently, the total overall AB request gap between Democrats and Republicans is 19,605. At this point in the cycle, this is much closer than either 2010 or 2012.

§ In 2010, the request gap at this point was 24,620. In 2012, the gap was 75,287.

§ Republican requests are up 41.5%, compared to Democrat requests improving only 30.0% over 2010.

4) Republicans have steadily grown their vote share with a group of new, low propensity, non-midterm voting individuals each week, over the past six weeks. Their total share of these voters is growing every day, while Democrats' share is steadily decreasing.

§ Since October 1, when Republican contact efforts intensified, Republicans lead in total absentee requests from non-2010 voters by 7,678 voters.

§ The share of non-2010 voters has grown steadily over the past weeks for Republicans, while decreasing for Democrats.

§ In fact, on the Democrats' biggest request day of the cycle, October 20th, nearly 28% of Republican absentee requests came from non-2010 voters, compared to only 13% for Democrats.

5) Democrats are now resorting to cannibalizing their 2010 voters, to keep up in the request race, keep their activists energized and hold onto their press narrative.

§ Democrats' largest request day of the cycle, October 20th, was made up by over 87% of 2010 voters, compared to only 72% for Republican on the same day.

§ With each week, a higher percentage of Democrat 2010 voters requested ballots for 2014, starting with 75.0% for the week of September 29th, to 84.1% for the week of October 20th.

§ Even more troubling for Democrats, their recent investment, in response to our sustained growth, was to mobilize 2010 absentee and poll voters – the very cannibalization they claimed they were not engaging in.

6) The Democrats' lead is simply not sustainable or large enough to overcome Republican efforts going into Election Day.

§ Historically, Republicans outperform Democrats, both in turnout and vote share on Election Day.

§ Democrats went into the 2010 election with a request lead of almost 30,000 votes and a return lead of nearly 20,000 votes, but lost the Governor's race overall by 108,000 votes.

§ In addition, President Obama went into the 2012 Election Day with an AB/EV lead of 137,355 votes, but lost on Election Day by 45,428 votes.

Working closely with the Republican Party of Iowa, RNC, NRSC and Branstad for Governor campaign, our efforts within Iowa to grow the electorate, along with excitement for Joni Ernst's campaign for US Senate, is driving more and more low turnout Republican and Republican-leaning Independent voters to vote AB/EV. Iowa Democrats, especially Congressman Bruce Braley's campaign, are rightfully concerned about these facts as they approach Election Day.