Iowa Dems may hold thin edge in early voting

Democrats may have an advantage over Republicans in an all-out battle to attract party loyalists who didn't cast ballots four years ago, an exclusive Des Moines Register analysis of absentee voter data suggests.

But it's each party's ability to attract votes from independents that could decide some tight races next week.

The Democratic and Republican parties and the campaigns of Joni Ernst and Bruce Braley in the too-close-to-call U.S. Senate race have bragged for weeks about their early-vote efforts. In particular, they've talked up their efforts to engage so-called "drop-off" voters who didn't participate in the 2010 midterm elections.

Data mining of more than 450,000 records reveals nearly 60,000 ballots cast so far this year by Iowans who didn't vote in 2010. Almost 25,000 have been cast by Democrats, compared to more than 17,000 by Republicans.

Drop-off voters could be the key in deciding extremely tight races for U.S. Senate; the 1st Congressional District, in northeast Iowa; the 3rd Congressional District, in central and southwest Iowa; and secretary of state.

However, a big chunk of the nearly 60,000 votes (more than 17,700) comes from independent "no party" voters, who have been pursued by Democrats and Republicans alike and whose leanings aren't easy to discern.

"The key to mobilization is contact, and based on these numbers, Democrats and Republicans seem to be in a foot race to knock on the doors of independent voters," said political scientist Chris Larimer.

For now, it's not clear who's winning the mobilization battle, or which candidate independents are breaking for.

Thousands vote who didn't do so in 2010

For weeks, the parties and campaigns have released hand-selected statistics to support assertions that they're winning the early-vote battle. The Register's analysis, conducted in collaboration with Larimer, an associate professor at the University of Northern Iowa, is the first to scrutinize detailed data released independent of the parties and campaigns.

Almost 20 percent of Democrats who requested and cast an early ballot as of last Saturday did not vote in the 2010 midterm. That renewed participation from 24,569 drop-off Democratic voters effectively expands the electorate, and is seen as especially critical to Braley's success.

Democrats are driven to turn out new voters and expand their base because of several factors that appear to be working against them this year, including consistent polling showing Ernst slightly ahead in the Senate race, President Barack Obama's unpopularity and historical trends suggesting the midterm will favor Republicans.

"With Bruce's lead in early-vote numbers, there is a clear sign that Republicans will not benefit this year from the same kind of conservative, low-turnout electorate they enjoyed in 2010," Braley campaign manager Sarah Benzing said in a conference call with reporters earlier this week.

But Republicans have also found success pursuing new midterm voters. As of last Saturday, 14 percent of their early voters — 17,199 of them — hadn't voted four years ago.

"Our efforts within Iowa to grow the electorate, along with excitement for Joni Ernst's campaign for U.S. Senate, is driving more and more low-turnout Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters to vote" early, Ernst campaign adviser Mark Stephenson wrote in a memo last week.

Parties relentlessly chase independents

The biggest turnout shift from 2010 is among independent voters.

About one-third of independents who cast an early ballot this year did not vote in 2010. Their choices could shift the balance from four years ago, when Republicans rolled to victory in top statewide races.

It's not easy to model, however, who these voters are choosing. Unsurprisingly, both parties claim them as their own.

Democrats say they excel at identifying and turning out like-minded voters, even if they don't identify explicitly with the party. They've built elaborate databases drawing on huge stores of personal and consumer data to target potential supporters.

Along with outside campaign groups, they've relentlessly pursued those voters with mailers, phone calls and knocks on the door.

Party leaders are projecting confidence about the effect of this effort, saying they're winning two-thirds of independents and claiming a 22-point lead among all early voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2010.

If so, the Register's data suggest only a marginal gain for Braley — somewhere around a percentage point.

But Democrats insist that their early-vote lead is accelerating as more requested absentee ballots are returned.

"Over the coming days, all signs point to these encouraging trends continuing and Braley padding his early vote lead by even wider margins," Benzing said.

Not so fast, Republicans say. They've made inroads with independents, too, and have their own modeling showing strength for their candidates and flagging turnout for Democrats. Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann described a "million-dollar investment" into identifying GOP-leaning no-party voters that has included analysis of voter histories, in-person surveys and phone calls.

"We think this is going to pay some dividends to us," Kaufmann said. "I can look you in the eye and state that we are significantly closing the gap (with Democrats) and exceeding our own expectations."

Indeed, Larimer, the UNI political scientist said, it probably is the personal touch from the parties that will make the difference.

"A lot of mobilization depends on someone reaching out to you, contacting you," Larimer said. "It really could come down to which party contacted those no-party voters."

Women dominate in casting early votes

The early-vote returns show that women — who generally favor Democrats over Republicans — represent a majority of early voters in the period analyzed, casting almost 167,500 votes, or 56 percent.

Women have cast 60 percent of registered Democrats' ballots, compared with 52 percent of GOP early ballots. A solid majority of independent ballots — 55 percent — came from women as well, but not enough to judge whether their participation skewed the independent vote toward one candidate or the other, Larimer said.

Independent early voters do appear to skew substantially younger than early voters from one of the two major parties. Nearly 19 percent of returned no-party ballots came from early voters under 40 — compared with 10 percent for Republicans and 12 percent for Democrats.

Younger voters are generally thought to lean Democratic, although a Des Moines Register Iowa Poll conducted earlier this month found Ernst leading among voters under 35 by more than 10 percentage points.

Truly new voters, or just new timing?

One contrast among Democrats and Republicans apparent in the Register's analysis is the method in which voters requesting an absentee ballot in 2014 voted in 2012.

Roughly 27 percent of Republicans requesting an absentee ballot this year voted on Election Day two years ago. That's nearly 42,000 voters. By contrast, about 19 percent of Democrats — almost 33,000 voters — who requested an absentee ballot this year voted in person in 2012.

Those figures could factor into what has been one of the biggest stories of early voting this year: the surge in GOP absentee ballot requests and returns.

After several election cycles in which Democrats have dominated early voting while Republicans have focused on Election Day turnout, GOP absentee efforts have run neck-and-neck with Democrats this year. For a few days, Republican early votes exceeded Democratic returns.

"Republicans learned important lessons in 2010 and 2012 and have turned a historical deficit into a tactical strength going into Election Day 2014," Stephenson, the Ernst adviser, wrote last week.

Democrats contend that the surge is not indicative of a growing GOP electorate, but rather changing habits within the existing electorate. If true, that would mean early-voting Republican gains are merely eating into the gains they previously enjoyed on Election Day, making the race more competitive for Democrats.

Once again, though, independent voters represent a significant unknown. An even higher percentage of independents who cast an early ballot in 2014 — nearly 28 percent, or about 23,500 voters — voted on Election Day in 2012.

ABOUT THIS REPORT

The study draws on early voting data current as of Saturday, capturing records from the first 31 days of the 40-day early vote period. It includes 450,180 absentee ballot requests and 299,849 votes actually cast.

As of Wednesday, voters had requested 492,915 ballots and returned 370,616 of them, according to the Secretary of State's Office. The Register's analysis captures more than 80 percent of those votes.