Senate debate will have effect beyond Iowa
The U.S. Senate candidates will face heavy-duty pressure tonight to not do something embarrassing or say anything foolish.
Tonight's debate will be less about articulating policy and more about avoiding gaffes that would be exploited by the air war captains directing all the TV attack ads, Iowa political insiders say.
Iowa's race has implications beyond the political careers of Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst because of the possibility that Iowa could be the 51st seat in a GOP takeover of the U.S. Senate.
The debate, sponsored by The Des Moines Register and KCCI-TV, begins at 5 p.m. at Simpson College. It will be broadcast live on Channel 8 in central Iowa and live-streamed on the Register and KCCI websites. C-SPAN also will carry the debate live.
The campaigns hope that undecided voters — 12 percent have yet to make up their minds — will tune in. But if political operatives can find any "gotcha!" moments that could damage their opponent, the clips will be played over and over in TV commercials in the final five weeks.
Watch the live broadcast from 5 p.m. to 6 p.m. at KCCI-TV or the live stream at DesMoinesRegister.com/Debate or KCCI.com.
As you watch the debate, discuss how each candidate is doing by using#IADebate on Twitter.
You can also tweet questions to the candidates with #AskErnst and #AskBraley. The moderators plan to ask the candidates some of the questions suggested by the Twitter audien.e. See which questions have been submitted already and follow the discussion during the debate at DesMoinesRegister.com/Debate
Here's a guide to the politics of the first of three U.S. Senate debates:
1. Braley could use a game-changing performance.
He's trailing by 6 points with likely voters, the new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows. Ernst will likely be focused on avoiding any serious flubs that would knock her out of the lead.
Both candidates have practiced hard. In separate, private mock debates, the two campaigns assigned savvy Iowa politicos to play the role of each opponent. Some of the who's who of national debate preparers also were brought in to help each candidate rehearse snappy one-liners, careful attacks, winsome anecdotes and smart answers on a variety of policy questions.
2. The eyes of political strategists nationally will be on this debate.
That's because Iowa could be the state that puts Republicans on top in the U.S. Senate, nonpartisan politics expert Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia told the Register.
And it would be an impressive feat, he said.
"It's easy in this kind of election year for Republicans to win places such as West Virginia and South Dakota, but it's always tough to win highly competitive states like Iowa," Sabato said.
West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas will likely end up with GOP senators — that's four, he said. The GOP needs to win at least two of the following states to take control: Alaska, Colorado, Louisiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina — and Iowa.
3. One tricky question for Braley will be how to approach his female opponent.
Ernst is a 5-foot-2-inch woman who's also a lieutenant colonel in the military, Iowa politics watchers said.
"If he's too aggressive, he'll be labeled a 'bully.' If he's too 'velvet glove,' she will win the debate," said political scientist Steffen Schmidt of Iowa State University.
Plus, Braley has already set off some Iowans' snob detectors. Video footage caught Braley standing by a bar cart at a private fundraiser in Texas, making a remark that has been interpreted by some voters as insulting to farmers. Republicans have circulated the video widely in an attempt to paint him as an arrogant trial lawyer.
And after several TV ads that featured testimonials about Braley by other people, but didn't star the candidate himself, "we are all chewing our nails to see how charismatic he is," Schmidt said.
In turn, the Democrats have done their best to spread the word that Ernst is "radical," so watch for her to project everyday-Iowan normalcy, insiders predicted.
4. Both sides are playing the expectations game in interviews with reporters.
They've taken care to compliment the talent of their opponent.
"We have watched Ernst's 36 joint appearances from the primary and found her to be a strong debater," Braley strategist Jeff Link told the Register. "She was clear and consistent in her joint appearances and was widely viewed as breaking out during these joint meetings. Her style is poised, and she is disciplined in delivering her lines."
Ernst campaign strategist David Kochel said Braley's nearly eight years in Washington as a member of Congress and more than 20 years of experience as a trial lawyer have "honed his debate skills."
"He is also the only candidate who has participated in a one-on-one debate against a member of the opposite party," Kochel said. "Joni has participated only in candidate forums with members of her own party, in a mostly friendly environment where there was general agreement about many of the issues. That's a much different standard for previewing debating skills."
5. Expect themes from the campaign playbooks.
"Joni will demonstrate that her positions are in line with the majority of Iowans who care about growing the economy and creating good jobs, as she's helped Gov. (Terry) Branstad do through her support in the state Senate," Kochel said.
Ernst will also highlight her background of service to the state and the nation, and reinforce her support for protecting and securing Social Security for Iowa's seniors, Kochel said.
Link said of the Braley camp's approach: "Our goal is to show the vast difference between Braley's positions and hers — on Social Security privatization, the federal minimum wage, banning all abortions and other issues."
Braley also will highlight his small-town roots and his record of accomplishment in Congress, Link said.
How to watch tonight's debate
Watch the live broadcast from 5 p.m. to 6 p.m. at KCCI-TV or the live stream at DesMoinesRegister.com/Debate or KCCI.com.
C-SPAN also will carry the debate live.
Free tickets to attend the debate have been distributed through the Register, KCCI and Simpson College, and are no longer available.
Meet the moderators
Kathie Obradovich, the Register's political columnist, has covered Iowa government and politics for more than 25 years.
Kevin Cooney has anchored KCCI-TV's newscasts for 32 years.
Tweet questions to Braley, Ernst
As you watch the debate, discuss how each candidate is doing by using #IADebate on Twitter.
You can also tweet questions to the candidates with #AskErnst and #AskBraley. The moderators plan to ask the candidates some of the questions suggested by the Twitter audience.
Follow our coverage
Follow comprehensive coverage, including analysis, photos, video clips and more, at DesMoinesRegister.com/Debate.
Our coverage team:
• Jennifer Jacobs, chief politics reporter, @JenniferJJacobs
• Jason Noble, Statehouse reporter, @jasonnobleDMR
• William Petroski, Statehouse reporter, @WilliamPetroski
• Andrea Melendez, photographer, @acmelendez15
• Charlie Litchfield, photographer, @CharlieLitch
Who's not on stage?
Ballots on Nov. 4 will feature four additional candidates:
• Douglas Butzier for the Libertarian Party.
• Bob Quast for Bob Quast for Term Limits.
• Ruth Smith, no party.
• Rick Stewart, Independent.
They have objected to their exclusion from the debate.
KCCI-TV and The Des Moines Register have said they used pre-established objective criteria to determine which candidates to include. KCCI relied on legal counsel to ensure the debate complies with all Federal Communications Commission laws and regulations.