Joni Ernst wins Iowa GOP U.S. Senate race
Joni Ernst, who highlighted her ability to shoot guns and castrate hogs to overcome disinterest in a sleepy primary election, dominated the field to become the first female GOP U.S. Senate nominee in Iowa history.
The 43-year-old farmer's daughter turned state senator and military commander blew past the 35 percent necessary to claim victory over her four competitors, including retired businessman Mark Jacobs, who tried to overpower the rest of the field by self-funding his campaign with millions from his own wealth.
Ernst won with a stunning 56 percent of the vote. Jacobs fell to a disappointing third, with 17 percent. He quickly pledged 100 percent support to Ernst. Christian conservative college professor and talk-show host Sam Clovis claimed second, at 18 percent.
Ernst wiped away tears during her victory speech. She stressed the values she learned growing up on a farm in southwest Iowa. "It really is a long way from Red Oak to Washington, but with your help, that journey is just beginning, and it is beginning tonight," she said to cheers from supporters at her watch party at the Des Moines Social Club.
Next up: In what's expected to be a highly competitive and expensive race, Ernst will square off in the November election with the unopposed Democratic nominee, Bruce Braley, a congressman and trial lawyer from Waterloo. It will be Iowa's first U.S. Senate race without an incumbent in 40 years.
Clovis, who framed himself as a fighter for freedom and liberty, beat expectations set by recent polling, but failed to duplicate kindred spirit Rick Santorum's Iowa caucus sneak attack into the winner's circle, as their mutual supporters had hoped.
Former federal prosecutor Matt Whitaker, a tea partier who took a controversial stance against renewable fuel subsidies, came in fourth, at 7.5 percent, with one precinct still out on Wednesday morning. Car sales manager Scott Schaben never rose above long-shot status, receiving 1.4 percent.
Turnout was relatively low. The energy in the race never reached the heights of 1980, the year of Iowa's last epic GOP U.S. Senate primary, when conservative upstart Chuck Grassley, a future legend, defeated establishment-backed, self-funder Tom Stoner by 32 percentage points. Turnout was over 259,000.
But in a year when Republicans have set their sights on regaining control of the Senate, the Iowa race generated intense national interest. It attracted the attention of the big newspapers and TV networks, some of whom sent correspondents to Des Moines to cover it.
Democratic U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin, Iowa's liberal lion, is retiring after holding the seat for 30 years. Republicans need to gain six seats to reclaim the majority; they hope the Iowa seat will be one.
Next question: Will Ernst pivot toward middle?
In a state where 40 percent of voters are registered neither as Republican nor Democrat, the next challenge for Ernst will be to build her argument for independent voters, politics watchers said.
Ernst won attention in the GOP primary with her persona as a Harley-riding Second Amendment advocate who commands the largest battalion in Iowa, and by drilling home the message that she believes in conservative principles of limited government and traditional family values.
She repeats her "mother, soldier, conservative" slogan everywhere she goes. But the word "conservative" has a different impact on middle-of-the-road voters in Iowa, Democratic strategists noted.
"The real question is: 'Does she pivot at all or not?'" said Jeff Link, a consultant for the Braley campaign. "She calls for eliminating the U.S. Department of Education, which even (U.S. Rep.) Steve King has said is just a bridge too far for him."
In the general election, watch for Braley's backers to talk about his record. He'll say he worked with Republicans to pass legislation, has helped veterans, pushed for more job training and helped force the government to use plain language in its official documents. The Democrats will say Ernst has an "extreme" record: She wants to privatize Social Security, make abortion illegal and replace the income tax with a national sales tax that critics say would benefit the wealthy and hurt the working class.
Ernst supporters will say she's part of the "Iowa way" of running lean government and keeping unemployment low, while Braley is enmeshed in the failures of Washington, D.C.
She'll talk about the evils of Obamacare, which polls show is unpopular with nearly half of Iowans; he'll talk up its virtues.
"The problem for Bruce Braley in this election," said Ernst supporter and Republican strategist David Kochel, "is that he's tied to unpopular Washington policies, like giving the closing argument for Obamacare and standing in lockstep with Nancy Pelosi and the liberals in Congress in opposing the Keystone XL pipeline."
Jacobs' self-funding sets Iowa campaign record
Jacobs set an Iowa record for the most spending in a self-funded campaign, according to federal reports, but the results show that the candidates' own appeal trumped the power of money.
Early on, Jacobs had the momentum with a burst of TV advertisements that began three months before any competitors took to the airwaves. The commercials — portraying him as a nice guy and family man who used to run an energy company — didn't close the deal with voters, political observers said.
"(He) had a hard time shaking the 'carpetbagger' charge that he simply moved back to Iowa in 2012 to, in the view of some, 'buy' a Senate seat," said Iowa political historian Jeff Stein.
At Jacobs' watch party at the downtown Des Moines Embassy Suites Tuesday night, somber Jacobs backers listened to his concession speech. "This is not the outcome we were hoping for… but it's one the voters of Iowa delivered," Jacobs said. He added: "This has been an amazing journey."
The race bagged another Iowa record: an unprecedented level of involvement by conservative outside groups, who piled on against one Republican (Jacobs) in favor of another (Ernst). The collection of political action committees, including potential 2016 presidential candidate Marco Rubio's PAC, together spent upwards of $700,000 in the final week on pro-Ernst TV ads to try to drown out Jacobs' own ads.
In the final 30 days of the race, Ernst had all the momentum. Last week's Des Moines Register Iowa Poll showed that a majority of GOP likely primarygoers are most attracted to Christian conservative candidates with military experience, a background in business, experience in elected office — and an endorsement from Mitt Romney. Ernst has four of the five attributes, all but a business background.
Ernst on Tuesday night alluded to a Braley gaffe earlier this year, when he was caught on video at a Texas trial lawyers' fundraiser. "Bruce Braley told out-of-state trial lawyers that if they gave him money, he would be their voice in the Senate. And let me tell you something, I won't be the voice for any special interests. I will be the voice for you — all of you," she said.
She predicted Democrats would quickly regret nominating a career trial lawyer. "Now he's running against a farm girl, and he's running against that farm girl in Iowa," Ernst said.
THE MATCHUP
ERNST, R: State Sen. Joni Ernst managed to become a darling of both the GOP establishment and the anti-establishment but now enters the general election race at a bit of a disadvantage. Polling shows her several points below Braley in head-to-head matchups, but successful primary candidates often see a bounce. Her cash on hand was just $352,000 at the end of the last reporting period in mid-May, while Braley had $2.3 million. But conservative outside groups have spent millions coming to her aid in the primary, and money from well-heeled Republicans nationally will likely pour in now that she has sewn up the nomination. And watch for GOP White House hopefuls to sidle up to her on the stump.
BRALEY, D: U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley of Waterloo was regarded as the heavy favorite in the race until a caught-on-tape video surfaced with remarks perceived as snubbing Iowa farmers and Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley. Braley, who had no opponent in the U.S. Senate primary, was forced to dip into his campaign cash to do TV ads, but will most likely see continued support from Harry Reid's Senate Majority PAC as well as future funding from California billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer. At 10 a.m. Tuesday, long before the votes were counted, the Braley campaign released a memo spelling out how it will aggressively go after Ernst for "manufacturing an image she cannot live up to."