5 districts key to Iowa House chamber control

Four districts with retiring incumbents are the most likely battlegrounds in this year's contest over control of the Iowa House.

The districts — three in eastern Iowa and another in the far west — are nearly evenly split between Democratic and Republican voters. And without an incumbent in the race, neither party has an obvious advantage.

A fifth district, in rural Polk County, has swung between the parties in recent elections, and could swing again this November.

Republicans currently control the chamber with a six-vote, 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats would have to net four seats to seize back control they ceded in 2011.

That'll be tough given the seats in play, requiring Democrats to win all of the most competitive races and at least one more. But party leaders in the state and at the national level are projecting confidence it can be done.

"We're focused on getting to 51 and hopefully more than that," said House Minority Leader Mark Smith, D-Marshalltown. "We're looking at a number of places in the state where we think we can pick up seats."

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, a national organization devoted to winning statehouses for Democrats, has identified Iowa as one of eight "Emerging Majorities" states where the party can reduce GOP majorities or win control outright.

House Republican leaders, though, are looking in the opposite direction.

House Speaker Kraig Paulsen said last week he believes the overall political climate favors his party, citing in particular the strong GOP campaigns of gubernatorial candidate Terry Branstad and U.S. Senate candidate Joni Ernst at the top of the ticket.

He's looking to extend his majority by two or three seats.

"I think we pick up seats," Paulsen, R-Hiawatha, said. "If (the DLCC) claims this is one of their best opportunities, they don't have much opportunity."

Here is a look at the seats considered most up for grabs:

House District 15

This district covering northwest Council Bluffs looks like the definition of a tossup.

Currently held by a Republican, it's an open seat and likely a must-win for Democrats to shift the balance of power in the chamber.

Retiring state Rep. Mark Brandenburg, R-Council Bluffs, represented the area for two terms, but prior to that a Democrat held the seat.

Party registration favors Democrats by almost 1,300 voters according to the latest numbers from the secretary of state's office.

President Barack Obama won the district handily in 2012, but the area voted solidly in favor of Republicans for governor and for Congress in 2010, the latest midterm election.

The GOP candidate is John Blue, the owner of a landscaping company. The Democrat is Charlie McConkey, a retired steelworker who has served in leadership positions with United Steelworkers Local 3141.

House District 30

Democrat Joe Riding won this eastern Polk County seat in 2012 despite a plurality of GOP voters who today outnumber both Democrats and independents. The district is still closely contested, though: As of this month the Republican edge over Democrats was fewer than 600 voters.

Riding, of Altoona, is the manager of Terrace Hills Golf Course in Altoona and a former city councilman with a long record of civic activity.

He'll be challenged in November by Republican Zach Nunn of Bondurant, an Air Force veteran and intelligence officer who previously served on the White House National Security Council.

House Republicans will surely target the district as one of the best opportunities to grow their majority, and it could be a prime target for broader get-out-the-vote efforts by both parties in ultra-competitive races for Congress and the U.S. Senate.

House District 55

The retirement of eight-term Democratic Rep. Roger Thomas opens a district with a distinctive Republican lean, and represents one of the GOP's best chances to expand its majority in the House.

The district covers portions of Winneshiek, Fayette and Clayton counties, including the city of Decorah. Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district by more than 1,300 voters.

Democrats have fared well, though: Besides Thomas' long tenure, Obama won almost 55 percent of the district's vote in 2012.

The Republican candidate in the race is another veteran: retired Army Col. Darrel Branhagen, an attorney who more recently has served as Winneshiek county attorney and on the Decorah City Council.

Democratic candidate Rick Edwards served for 19 years as Decorah's director of parks and recreation.

Holding the seat will be critical for Democrats to have any shot at winning a majority in the House. Losing it would require them to win five other seats currently held by Republicans, and likely demand an upset over a GOP incumbent.

House District 91

Incumbent Rep. Mark Lofgren's ill-fated run for Congress earlier this year leaves uncontested a district where Republicans enjoy only a slight voter-registration advantage but have run strongly in recent years.

The seat represents the city of Muscatine and rural areas of Muscatine County along the Mississippi River.

The Democrat in this year's race is John Dabeet, an economics professor at Muscatine Community College who ran and lost to Lofgren in 2012 by 374 votes.

His opponent is Republican Gary Carlson, a vice president at HNI Corp., the Muscatine-based parent company of Hon, Allsteel and other furniture brands.

In just the last few months, Republican voter registration has surged in the district. In April, party registrations were dead even: Democrats outnumbered Republicans by just seven voters; in August, after competitive primaries in several GOP races, there were 392 more Republicans than Democrats.

The seat, last held by a Democrat from 2005 to 2011, is a must-win for Democrats to have a shot at retaking control of the House.

House District 97

The retirement of six-term GOP Rep. Steve Olson of DeWitt puts in play another district central to Republicans' current majority.

The district, centered on DeWitt and including parts of rural Clinton and Scott counties, leans slightly Republican but is rich with no-party independent voters who make up nearly 43 percent of the electorate.

Top-of-the-ticket results from the last two cycles show just how much of a swing district it is: Obama won 50.4 percent of the vote there in 2012, while Branstad won 55 percent in 2010.

Running for the Republicans is farmer Norlin Mommsen of DeWitt. He's served on several county-level boards and was a farm supply salesman. The Democrat is Jay Saxon, an inspector at the Alcoa Aluminum plant in Davenport. Campaign finance records show Saxon has so far enjoyed strong backing from labor unions, including cash contributions and in-kind donations of campaign materials.

As with districts 91 and 15, House District 97 is virtually a must-win for Democrats to have any chance of retaking the majority this year.

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Monday:Expect negative campaigning in U.S. Senate race

Wednesday: Key Iowa Senate races to watch.