10 questions that will be answered by Iowa caucuses
Celebrity Caucuses, Season 1, has its big finale Monday night in Iowa.
“We’ll all know the answer to Mr. Trump’s question, ‘How stupid are the people of Iowa?’” said longtime Iowa Republican activist Richard Rogers. “That answer will depend upon our individual perspective on the relative merits of the candidates.”
The contest in Iowa on the GOP side is down to Donald Trump, the entertainment entrepreneur whose presidential bid was widely ridiculed until he proved his staying power with voters, and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, a conservative superstar famous for his government shutdown tactics.
Still in the spotlight, but in a distant third and fourth place, according to the new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, are Marco Rubio, the Florida U.S. senator referred to three years ago in Time magazine as “The Republican Savior” who could sell the GOP on a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants; and Ben Carson, a brain surgeon whose skills were featured in a movie called “Gifted Hands.”
The Democrats are down to a duel between one of the best-known women in America, former first lady and former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and the upstart liberal rock star Bernie Sanders, a Vermont U.S. senator whose call for a political revolution has inspired unexpectedly strong support.
The Iowa caucuses are just the first round of voting in the 2016 presidential race, but they’re disproportionately influential — and the whole political world is waiting for the results.
Here are some of the questions that will be answered Monday night:
1. Will Trump crush his competition, or will he lose to Cruz and risk being branded a loser? Will Clinton feel the Bern from Iowa again, or is the Sanders phenomena just sound and fury?
Strong turnout from younger voters as well as from voters of all ages who have never participated in the Iowa caucuses before will aid Trump and Sanders, the final Iowa Poll before the caucuses shows.
“I think they’re coming,” said Ralph Reed, chairman of the Faith & Freedom Coalition, who has closely followed the caucuses for nearly 30 years.
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Clinton and Cruz, who do better with practiced caucusgoers, need to be ready, Reed said. “As a matter of pure strategy, don’t ever assume your opponent is going to be playing a weak hand. Assume he’s got the strongest hand he could possess, and you’re going to beat him anyway,” he said.
Clinton suffered an embarrassing loss in Iowa in 2008 during her first presidential run and faces the threat of embarrassment once again, this time from Sanders, whose supporters' favorite slogan is "Feel the Bern." She has just a 3-point lead in the Iowa Poll, while Trump has a 5-point lead.
2. Will the celebrity-centric television coverage of this race trump the traditional fundamentals of an on-the-ground organizational advantage?
“How effective has the media been in manipulating the public?” said Brad Sherman, an evangelical conservative leader from Coralville. He backs Republican Mike Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, who has 2 percent support in the Iowa Poll and has complained about a lack of news coverage. “Their power to promote the rating-makers and subtly relegate others to insignificance is formidable. Will the people see through it?”
3. Will the media overplay the importance of “three tickets out of Iowa?”
In a normal year, multiple candidates get a boost out of Iowa, but “given the strength of Trump and Cruz, the third ticket might not be worth much. In fact, if Trump wins, there might not be much room for Clinton or Sanders either,” said Jeff Link, a Democratic strategist from Des Moines who backs Clinton.
If no rival is able to overcome Trump in Iowa, it’s questionable whether even the super-funded super political action committees can take him out after getting started so late, said GOP strategist Kevin Madden, a spokesman for Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign. “The posse finally came to town only after every window has already been shot out,” he said.
Rubio is counting on momentum from Iowa to help him survive Trump, who knocks down rivals like bowling pins. “I don't think you're going to really get clarity on this race until the race narrows a little bit,” Rubio said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
4. Will a logistics or results snafu happen, and how bad will it be?
Organizers have been sweating for weeks over every eventuality.
Iowans got a black eye after the excruciatingly close GOP caucuses last election cycle, when the count showed Romney won by 8 votes on caucus night, but former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum was declared the official winner by 34 votes after a certified count.
“Rather than take a Frankenstein approach and piecemeal the reporting system back together, the parties chose a brand new system akin to Robocop, proactively working to ensure a smooth process,” said Republican operative Tim Albrecht, who backs former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
This time, precinct captains will report results by smartphones or tablets using new secure, cloud-based apps that Microsoft has developed for each party.
But even if the apps work perfectly, there are plenty of opportunities for error in volunteer-driven, party-organized events involving 1,681 precincts.
Will the precinct locations that party officials booked be too small to hold everyone? In Iowa City, for example, some schools didn’t want to play host again because of the 2008 crowd sizes, so some precincts were moved to neighboring Coralville this year. Will there be enough volunteers? Will the caucus chairs competently run each precinct, especially on the Democratic side, where the rule book is tricky and involves math?
5. If the Democratic results are close, does someone play the “popular vote should win” card?
Strategists and poll data suggest a Sanders wave in college towns and Clinton wins in rural areas. A mismatch between "state delegate equivalents," which determine the Democrats' winner, and the popular vote could set off a fresh round of criticism about the process.
6. Will candidates who have attracted some of the most hearty and fervent party activists overcome their poor poll numbers?
That group includes Republican Rand Paul, a Kentucky U.S. senator, who has 5 percent support in the Iowa Poll, and Democrat Martin O'Malley, a former Maryland governor who has 3 percent.
Paul, the son of Ron Paul, 2012’s third-place GOP caucus finisher, has a long track record of success in organizational competitions. “Will that pay dividends and put him back in the game?” asked Virginia-based GOP strategist Phil Musser.
7. Do endorsements — or de-endorsements — matter?
“Will Obama's semi-endorsement for Hillary help?” asked Urbandale Democrat Rick Smith, editor of the Iowa Daily Democrat, referring to President Barack Obama telling Politico on Jan. 22 that his former cabinet official is “extraordinarily experienced — and, you know, wicked smart.”
Is corn still king? Can a candidate targeted by a popular governor and the ethanol lobby, as Cruz has been for his opposition to the Renewable Fuel Standard, squeak out a win? Or, if voters ignore the GOP establishment’s “Not Cruz, please” message, will the Republican National Committee build a wall around Iowa and make us pay by never again letting us kick off presidential voting?
8. Will Elizabeth Warren, the progressive Massachusetts U.S. senator, be the real Iowa loser?
“If Sanders loses a close race, some on the left will think she could have won,” said Washington, D.C.-based Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis, referring to liberals' efforts to draft her into the race.
9. Which candidate goes before the microphones first to speak about the results on caucus night?
“In order to shape the news, you've got to come out early enough to shape the headlines. What does Sanders say if he loses? What does Clinton say? Your message post-loss can be just as important as it is when you win — ask Howard Dean,” Kofinis said.
In 2004, Dean, a Democratic presidential candidate and former Vermont governor, rattled off states he intended to win in the coming months, then gave a fist-pumping “YAAAAAAAHHH!” What became known as the "Dean Scream" sounded normal to people standing next to him, but because of the way microphones were positioned, came across as an oddball shriek to television audiences and helped sink his candidacy.
10. For whom does the bell toll?
Is there a Feb. 2 for Huckabee, Santorum, Carson and former tech company CEO Carly Fiorina? They all had their moment — two are past caucus winners, one was the Iowa Poll leader in October, and one was a September debate champ, said GOP activist Wes Enos, a City Council member in Bondurant who backs Rubio.
Others on the brink: O’Malley and Paul. Will any of them finish strongly enough to justify continuing, or do they end their campaigns and start endorsing? And who will they endorse?
About the caucuses
What: The Iowa caucuses for the Republican and Democratic parties will be held Monday. A caucus is a gathering of fellow party members to discuss their presidential preferences, elect local party leadership and discuss issues that make up the party’s platform. The Iowa caucuses kick off presidential voting in the United States.
When: They begin at 7 p.m. Monday for both parties
Where: You must vote in the precinct where you live. To find your precinct, go to the Iowa secretary of state’s website: sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterreg/pollingplace/search.aspx. Look up Democratic caucus locations at the Iowa Democratic Party website: iowademocrats.org/2016-democratic-caucuslocations/ Look up Republican caucus locations at the Republican Party of Iowa website: www.iowagop.org/caucus-locations/
Who can participate? You must be eligible to vote in the state of Iowa; 18 years old by the date of the presidential election, Nov. 8, 2016; and registered as a Democrat or Republican. You can register to vote or change parties on caucus night. No specific identification is required.
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DURING THE DAY MONDAY
Use our interactive grid to look up candidates’ stands on 27 issues. You can search by issues or candidate. And you can click to “agree” or “disagree” with each answer. A scoreboard will show you which candidate’s positions most closely match your views. Find the grid at DesMoinesRegister.com/CompareCandidates.
Also at DesMoinesRegister.com:
- Keep up to date on the latest news as candidates make their final-day arguments.
- Find historic galleries and recaps of past caucuses.
- Download the “Three Tickets” podcast, on the history and culture of the Iowa caucuses.
ON CAUCUS NIGHT
- Live video: The Des Moines Register is partnering with WHO-TV to provide a livestream of news and commentary, starting at 7 p.m.
- Live results: Get up-to-the-minute results by county and by candidate.
- News and analysis: The Register’s political team will keep you up to date on which candidates overachieve and which ones falter.
- Photos and videos: Experience the caucuses and parties in ways no other media can match.
- Social buzz: What are people talking about? We’ll round up the buzz.