Obradovich: Trump, Sanders voters see rigged system
More than two-thirds of likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa believe the system is rigged against all but the very rich and powerful. Nearly four out of 10 likely Republican caucusgoers agree.
That’s a powerful call for change and goes a long way toward explaining why Donald Trump, a political outsider with no government experience, is leading the Republican caucus race in Iowa. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has made economic inequality a central campaign message, is neck-and-neck with Hillary Clinton, who has adopted similar themes in her campaign.
The new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows Clinton at 45 percent and Sanders at 42 percent among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Both have seen slight increases in their support since early January. Adding to the anything-can-happen atmosphere is the fact that 30 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers say they could still be persuaded to change their minds.
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Meanwhile, the new poll shows Donald Trump with 28 percent support from likely Republican caucusgoers. Trump has acquired a 5-point lead over Ted Cruz, who has dropped slightly from early January. Forty-five percent of Republicans say they could still be persuaded to change.
Republican caucusgoers generally are more likely to say the system works reasonably well for those who work hard to get ahead. That’s true of young and old, men and women, conservative and mainstream, evangelical and tea party, caucus veterans and first-timers. It’s true of Cruz supporters, as well as those for Marco Rubio.
The exception is Trump.
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Almost 40 percent of GOP caucusgoers who feel the system is rigged against all but the wealthy are going for Trump, a billionaire and the richest guy in the race. Trump has argued that he is immune from the influence of campaign money because he can pay his own way. People who make less than $70,000 a year and political independents also have pluralities who think the system is rigged.
Among Democratic caucusgoers, a majority in all age, economic and political categories think the system is rigged. Sanders is the first choice of 50 percent of voters who think the system is rigged, compared with 39 percent for Clinton. Clinton gets the support of 60 percent of those who think the system works, compared with 24 percent for Sanders.
Trump and Sanders are both leading with people who are generally considered less reliable caucusgoers: young voters, political independents and moderates. Clinton leads Sanders 54-42 percent with those whose minds are made up. Cruz leads Trump by huge margins with evangelicals and the very conservative, two groups that often dominate the caucuses. In fact, pollster Ann Selzer says if evangelicals come in a bit heavier than their 2012 turnout percentage, only 1 percentage point would separate Trump and Cruz.
Trump and Sanders also lead with first-time caucusgoers, which may be an asset or a liability. People who have never caucused before may be less likely to show up. But if they turn out in huge numbers, as they did for Barack Obama in 2008, they can make all the difference. The percentage of first-timers is 40 percent for Republicans and 34 percent for Democrats — hardly the blockbuster of nearly 60 percent we saw for Democrats in 2008.
The question that could make the difference Monday is whether people who think the game is fixed will decide to play.
The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll was taken Jan. 26-29 by Selzer & Co. Questions based on the full sample of 602 likely Republican caucusgoers or 602 likely Democratic caucusgoers have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.