6 things that help explain Iowa's Republican caucus results
Iowa’s caucus results had barely been recorded before Republican presidential candidates and their entourages packed up and shifted the center of the political universe to New Hampshire.
But as the dust settles, strategists and operatives will work to make sense of what transpired in Iowa.
On the Republican side, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz upended businessman Donald Trump, who led in the latest poll going into caucus night. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio surged into a stronger-than-expected third place showing. And former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee ended his campaign after disappointing results.
MORE RESULTS:
Here's a look at six reasons the results shook out the way they did.
1. The ground game is still king in Iowa
In the seven months Trump campaigned in Iowa, he upended conventional caucus wisdom.
That wisdom says in order to win Iowa, a candidate needs to spend time a lot of time here. And when they’re here, they have to meet voters face-to-face, shake hands and answer questions. They need a team on the ground who identifies supporters early, stays in contact with supporters often and makes absolutely sure they turn up on caucus night.
Cruz and Rubio generally followed that blueprint, while Trump instead favored large-scale rallies where he rarely took questions — usually jetting in and out of the state for a single event.
Trump spent 37 days campaigning in Iowa, hosting 57 events, according to The Des Moines Register Candidate Tracker. His campaign did not reveal specifics about his organizational strength to the media and faced speculation from some that they were failing to capitalize on the enthusiasm of his thousands of rally attendees.
Cruz, in comparison, hosted 152 events over 56 days. He also boasted 1,573 precinct captains, a coalition of 164 pastors and 12,000 volunteers who fanned out across the state to knock on doors and make calls on his behalf.
And up until caucus night, it looked as though Trump may be able to win Iowa without playing by Iowa’s rules. But then the numbers started rolling in.
“The simple thing there is to suggest that that ground game in Iowa is still really important,” said David Redlawsk, a political science professor at Rutgers University who studies the caucuses. “You can have all these giant crowds that Trump had but you’ve got to have people to motivate (people to caucus).”
2. Record turnout means big numbers for everyone — not just Trump
More than 180,000 Republicans caucused Monday night, shattering the 2012 record of 121,503 people. According to entrance polling from The New York Times, 45 percent of those Republican caucusgoers were participating in the process for the first time.
Many predicted record turnout primarily would benefit Trump, suggesting Trump would inspire people who had not previously been engaged in the political process.
And that held true — to a degree.
Thirty percent of those first-time caucusgoers were supporting Trump. But Rubio and Cruz also benefited, earning 22 percent and 23 percent of those voters respectively, effectively stopping Trump from running away with it.
“Even though the Trump people were able to bring some new voters to the polls, they just couldn’t overcome a groundswell of Republicans who now have a good reason to go out and vote,” said Bryan English, Cruz’s state director, noting Cruz's attractiveness to the GOP base.
3. Evangelical voters turn out in droves
Cruz has made religion a centerpiece of his campaign, calling on Iowans to vote for their values. His father, a pastor, traveled around Iowa to speak with congregations and buoy support for his son among religious voters. Christian conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats also endorsed Cruz's candidacy.
Those voters turned up en masse to caucus, making up more than 60 percent of caucusgoers, according to New York Times’ entry polling.
And of those caucusgoers who identified as white evangelical or born-again Christians, 33 percent supported Cruz. Cruz also won out among the 42 percent of voters who said the most important quality in a candidate is that they share the same values.
"On caucus night, the unprecedented turnout included the highest-ever measured proportion of evangelicals to show at a Republican caucus — 64 percent, beyond anything in recent memory and what anyone might have speculated, I would guess," the Register's pollster, J. Ann Selzer, wrote in an essay published in the Register Wednesday. "… This is probably the biggest reason Cruz prevailed."
Trump, though he had the endorsement of evangelical leader Jerry Falwell Jr., never made religion or social issues a primary piece of his pitch to Iowans. Rather, Falwell attempted to sell Iowans on Trump despite the fact that Trump is not overtly religious, telling them they’re electing a president, not a pastor.
And Trump did pick up his share of the evangelical vote, earning 21 percent, along with Rubio, who also garnered 21 percent.
4. Marco Rubio surprises, draws support from late deciders
Arguably the biggest surprise of the night was Rubio, who surpassed expectations by earning 23 percent of the vote overall, nearly knocking Trump out of second place.
The Florida senator did best among voters who made their decision on the day of the caucus or in the few days before, according to New York Times entrance polls.
John Epperson, a political science professor at Simpson College, said Rubio potentially siphoned off supporters who ultimately soured on Trump, helping to close the gap between the two candidates.
Eric Woolson, a Republican strategist who worked on Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s campaign, said he thinks Rubio in part grabbed support from the candidates who placed below him in the race. He noted that while Cruz and Trump fought it out for the top spot, Rubio was making the pitch that he’s a unifier of the party.
“Probably the majority of folks making up their minds late just started to focus on (the race) in the past week,” he said. “So as they started to focus on it, there’s Rubio front and center.”
He noted that in the final week, Rubio was in the state, he was on TV and the narrative surrounding his campaign was that he had been gaining momentum as the default establishment candidate.
Rubio’s results also seemed to validate his campaign strategy. He had taken heat, from some who jokingly referred to him as the “mayor of Ankeny,” for failing to campaign much beyond the Des Moines metro area.
5. Few geographic strongholds
Rubio took the top spot in three Des Moines-area counties, which are some of the state’s most populous.
While Cruz carried a majority of Iowa counties, Trump held pockets of support across the state. And neither candidate dominated the northwest corner of Iowa, which is heavily Republican and historically has supported Christian evangelicals.
“I’m kind of encouraged when I look at this map and think everybody was making independent decisions,” English said. “It’s not like anyone just dropped in and owned any one area. It looks like we were all competing with each other in every part of the state.”
6. RFS stance doesn’t take down Cruz
Cruz also came out on top in Iowa despite a perceived liability: his opposition to the Renewable Fuel Standard.
For weeks, Cruz was followed by questions asking him to clarify where he stands on the federal regulation and ethanol. Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad rebuked Cruz for his stance and said it would be a mistake for Iowans to support the Texan.
Branstad’s son also led a pro-renewable fuels group that trailed Cruz’s campaign bus, passing out literature calling Cruz harmful to Iowa farmers.
Even so, Cruz won the Iowa caucuses over Trump, who had called the RFS “an important tool in the mission to achieve energy independence.”
Rick Tyler, a Cruz spokesman, said on caucus night that he credits the campaign's organizational strength for being able to overcome the issue. He noted the campaign had to weather a public denunciation from Branstad as well as a wave of advertising attacks.
"We had the two winners of the previous Iowa caucuses and a lot of people convening in the evangelical lane who really worked hard for that vote," Tyler said. "In the end we overcame all of those challenges and obstacles.”