IOWA CAUCUSES

6 reasons GOP might see record caucus turnout in Iowa

Jennifer Jacobs
jejacobs@dmreg.com
Former Sen. Ted Cruz greets supporters after speaking at the Crossroads Shooting Sports gun shop on Friday, Dec. 4, 2015, in Johnston, Iowa.

All of the work the presidential campaigns have invested over the last year or more will boil down to the next four weeks — and whether they can turn out supporters on caucus night.

A huge list of names harvested at Iowa campaign rallies is worth nothing if those names don't show up to vote.

Some GOP strategists think turnout for the Republican caucuses on Feb. 1 might be in the 140,000 range, at least 15 percent higher than in 2012.

MORE:Big question 4 weeks out: What will caucus avoiders do?

Here are six reasons why:

1. More Ted Cruz people

Operatives for the current Iowa front-runner are data-driven technocrats, and they could help turn out a record number of evangelical conservative voters.

Ideologically motivated "base" voters — the antagonists of back-to-back nominees John McCain and Mitt Romney and candidate Jeb Bush this cycle — are excited to finally have a candidate attractive to the party's conservative base, and they won't need much hand-holding to get to the caucuses, campaign strategists said.

The Texas U.S. senator, the son of a pastor, is appealing to conservative evangelicals, who punch way above their political weight in the GOP caucuses, said Dennis Goldford, a Drake University political science professor. They make up only about 25 percent of Iowa's population, but comprised 57 percent of the caucus electorate in 2012 and 60 percent in 2008, based on caucus-day entrance polling.

2. New Donald Trump people

Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump at the Iowa State Fair on Saturday, August 15, 2015.

The New York businessman, in second place in Iowa polling, has made it clear he wants to win the caucuses.

If Trump can bring in Iowa no-party voters who re-register for the evening, turnout might spike, said Tim Saler, who was candidate Bobby Jindal's deputy manager until Jindal exited the race in November. And if Trump can get the newcomers, he has the potential to blow the lid off historical numbers. But campaign operatives said they get nervous anytime a campaign counts on newbies for a victory.

3. Maybe some new anti-Trump people

People hold signs during a silent protest of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in Sioux City, Iowa, Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2015. Hundreds of students, parents and other Sioux City residents protested Trump's appearance at a northwestern Iowa high school on Tuesday, saying the Republican presidential candidate's rhetoric about immigrants violates the school's anti-bullying policy.

Will a desire to see Trump lose be motivation for Iowans to turn out for the GOP caucuses?

Democrat Maria Bribriesco, a Bernie Sanders super-volunteer from Bettendorf, said Scott County has 10,000 Latinos, and the goal is to get 1,000 to caucus.

But for some Latino activists in the Quad Cities, the urge is strong to caucus with the Republicans so they can vote against Trump, Bribriesco said. "I'm encouraging them to vote for someone," she said, as opposed to casting a protest vote.

4. GOP anger at Barack Obama, Washington, Hillary Clinton, D.C. Republicans, the establishment

President Barack Obama speaks at North High School in  Des Moines, Iowa, Monday Sept. 14, 2015, with US Secretary of Education Arne Duncan.

Iowa's record-setting Democratic turnout in 2008 has been attributed in part to an unpopular president and a party's frustration at being locked out of the White House for eight years.

Republican George W. Bush's job approval was just 34 percent at the end of his term. A GOP groundswell is possible now that the tables are turned, and a Democrat with 44 percent approval occupies the White House.

Except for George H. W. Bush, no party has kept the White House three terms in a row since World War I, Goldford noted. Republicans believe that the "two-terms-and-you're-out dynamic" points to a GOP victory in the general election, he said.

WHERE IN IOWA?:  Track presidential campaign visits across the state

5. The rise of digital organizing

A large digital twitter trending screen in the Spin Room hours before CBS News would host Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley for the second in a series of Democratic presidential primary debates at Drake University on Saturday, Nov. 14, 2015.

It's easier with today's tools to teach first-timers how to caucus, strategists said. Social media adds reach, too.

6. The sheer number of candidates

As of today, 11 Republicans are competing in the Iowa caucuses, now that Wisconsin's Scott Walker, Texas' Rick Perry, Louisiana's Jindal, South Carolina's Lindsey Graham and New York's George Pataki have dropped out.

It was Romney and everyone else in 2012. This cycle, Republicans have repeatedly said they see a phalanx of people who could plausibly sit behind the big desk.

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