IOWA CAUCUSES

Iowa Poll: At a glance, how each GOP candidate fares

Jennifer Jacobs
jejacobs@dmreg.com

WHO'S UP?

Donald Trump

  • First choice: 23 percent
  • Rank in field: First
  • Change since May: Up 19 points
  • Favorability: 61 percent
  • Change since May: Up 34 points

Trump has pulled off a reversal in how caucusgoers view him. In May, his favorability was upside down: Just 27 percent viewed him favorably and 63 percent unfavorably. Now, it's 61 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable.

Business-oriented establishment types are going for Trump over Jeb Bush 30 percent to 16 percent, said J. Ann Selzer, pollster for the Iowa Poll.

Those who like what they see in Trump include first-time caucusgoers (69 percent favorable, 29 percent unfavorable), tea party Republicans (73 percent favorable, 24 percent unfavorable) and caucusgoers in Iowa's 1st Congressional District in northeastern Iowa (70 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable).

By capturing 23 percent of the vote while 61 percent have favorable feelings toward him, "Trump definitely has upside potential," Selzer said. "All the talk about a ceiling was a little premature."

MORE:

Ben Carson

  • First choice: 18 percent
  • Rank in field: Second
  • Change since May: Up 8 points
  • Favorability: 79 percent
  • Change since May: Up 23 points

Carson, a book author and retired brain surgeon raised by a low-income single mom, hasn't done much advertising in Iowa. His campaign has spent $225,000 on TV — far less than groups supporting Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry — as well as a little on radio and newspaper ads, plus billboards.
As of Friday, five other GOP contenders have invested more days campaigning in Iowa.
Yet his popularity is mounting dramatically.

His 79 percent overall favorability rating is 8 percentage points higher than anyone else in the field, and 46 percent of those have very favorable feelings toward him,15 points higher than any rival.

Carson's best numbers are with the tea party (90 percent favorable, 6 percent unfavorable).

Women prefer Carson over Trump, 20 percent to 16 percent, Selzer noted.
Christian conservatives also like him better than Trump, 23 percent to 16 percent.

"Carson has built an impressive grassroots team and surpassed many observers' expectations," said GOP strategist Jake Ketzner, who was Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad's campaign manager in 2014 and is now a vice president at the public affairs firm LS2 Group.

Ted Cruz

  • First choice: 8 percent
  • Rank in field: Tied for third
  • Change since May: Up 3 points
  • Favorability: 61 percent
  • Change since May: Up 2 points

The Texas U.S. senator earns more first-choice votes than he did in May, but his favorability is about the same (61 percent favorable, 24 percent unfavorable now, versus 59 percent favorable, 20 percent unfavorable).

Cruz does best with tea party Republicans 87 percent favorable, 6 percent unfavorable.

"Cruz is slowly but surely building up a strong grassroots team that could potentially mirror the success of Santorum 2012 and Huckabee 2008 in Iowa," Ketzner said.

Carly Fiorina

  • First choice: 5 percent
  • Rank in field: Seventh
  • Change since May: Up 3 points
  • Favorability: 64 percent
  • Change since May: Up 23 points

Her jump in favorability places her fourth in the field on that measure, and third in favorability ratio, at plus 49 percentage points (64 percent favorable, 15 percent unfavorable), trailing only Ben Carson and Scott Walker.

She does best with those 65 and older (80 percent favorable, 3 percent unfavorable).

She also places fifth in combined first- and second-place votes at 16 percent, up from 5 percent in May.

"Carly Fiorina is doing everything right and continues to impress. I have yet to meet anyone that has ruled her out completely," Ketzner said.

Bobby Jindal

  • First choice: 2 percent
  • Rank in field: Tied for 10th
  • Change since May: Up 1 point
  • Favorability: 61 percent
  • Change since May: Up 18 points

The jump in favorability since May improves the Louisiana governor's position, Selzer said.
His favorability ratio is plus 43 percentage points (61 percent favorable, 18 percent unfavorable), fifth in the field.

WHO'S DOWN?

Scott Walker

  • First choice: 8 percent
  • Rank in field: Tied for third
  • Change since May: Down 9 points
  • Favorability: 71 percent
  • Change since May: Up 5 points

Caucusgoers still really like the Wisconsin governor, but he's no longer their first choice.

Walker gets half the votes he got in May (now 8 percent, down from 17 percent).
Even so, he is up a bit in favorability, trailing only Ben Carson in that measure.

He does best with tea party Republicans (85 percent favorable, 11 percent unfavorable).

Ketzner said: "Walker has had a rough summer. He made a great first impression but hasn't capitalized during the spring and summer months. Iowa is a must-win state for him, and he needs to reignite his campaign soon."

Mike Huckabee

  • First choice: 4 percent
  • Rank in field: Tied for eight
  • Change since May: Down 5 points
  • Favorability: 61 percent
  • Change since May: Unchanged

Although the former Arkansas governor's favorability held steady, his first-place votes dropped by half, from 9 percent in May to 4 percent.

The former pastor does best with Christian conservatives, 70 percent favorable, 19 percent unfavorable.
Huckabee, winner of the 2008 Iowa caucuses, is doing better than 2012 caucus candidates Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at bringing back past supporters, and he recently rolled out an impressive list of county chairs across the state, Ketzner said.

Rand Paul

  • First choice: 4 percent
  • Rank in field: Tied for eigth
  • Change since May: Down 6 points
  • Favorability: 39 percent
  • Change since May: Down 16 points

Is Paul fading?
"Yes," Selzer said.
The Kentucky U.S. senator has about half the support (4 percent) that he had a few months ago (10 percent). In May, 55 percent viewed him favorably. Now his favorability ratio is upside down, 39 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable.
Paul does best with likely caucusgoers under age 45 (55 percent favorable, 37 percent unfavorable).

Just 8 percent of likely caucusgoers identify strongly with the liberty movement, but he gets 47 percent of that vote.

Rick Perry

  • First choice: 1 percent
  • Rank in field: Tied for 13th
  • Change since May: Down 2 points
  • Favorability: 54 percent
  • Change since May: Down 5 points

The former Texas governor has seen not only a drop of 5 percentage points in those who view him favorably, but also an 8 point increase in those who view him unfavorably, rising from 29 percent to 37 percent.

"Perry has worked extremely hard in Iowa and has a group of solid backers, but his campaign's money problems will likely be too much for him to overcome," Ketzner said.

Rick Santorum

  • First choice: 1 percent
  • Rank in field: Tied for 13th
  • Change since May: Down 5 points
  • Favorability: 48 percent
  • Change since May: Down 8 points

The former Pennsylvania U.S. senator has dropped from 6 percent of the vote in May to 1 percent.
His favorability numbers have taken a dent, too, although not as great as Rand Paul's. Those who view him unfavorably are now at 37 percent, up 9 percentage points since May.

ABOUT THE SAME

Marco Rubio

  • First choice: 6 percent
  • Rank in field: Tied for fifth
  • Change since May: Unchanged
  • Favorability: 67 percent
  • Change since May: Up 7 points

The Florida U.S. senator's favorability shows an uptick, but it is not translating into more votes, Selzer said.

He's now at 67 percent favorable, 20 percent unfavorable, up from 60 percent/17 percent. "Note that both scores are up — he's becoming better known and that's a mixed bag," Selzer said.

Rubio does best with likely caucusgoers with a college degree (76 percent favorable, 15 percent unfavorable) and those with household incomes of $100,000 or more (77 percent/13 percent).

Jeb Bush

  • First choice: 6 percent
  • Rank in field: Tied for fifth
  • Change since May: Down 3 points
  • Favorability: 45 percent
  • Change since May: Up 2 points

Iowa Republican likely caucusgoers are tepid toward Jeb Bush, with just 10 percent saying their feelings are very favorable, Selzer said.

He's upside down on overall favorability at 45 percent favorable, 50 percent unfavorable, including 19 percent very unfavorable.
Bush is right side up with moderates (60 percent favorable, 36 percent unfavorable), business-oriented establishment Republicans (64 percent/33 percent), those with household incomes of $100,000 or more (59 percent/38 percent), first-time caucus attendees (52 percent/41 percent), those with a college degree or higher (51 percent/44 percent) and those living in Iowa's 2nd Congressional District in southeastern Iowa (51 percent/44 percent).

Ketzner said: "Bush has the financial resources available that no other campaign will ever be able to match. The question they face is: Do they save those dollars for a long primary fight, or do they try to end the primary early by upping their investment in Iowa and finish better than expected?"

John Kasich

  • First choice: 2 percent
  • Rank in field: Tied for 10th
  • Change since May: Unchanged
  • Favorability: 33 percent
  • Change since May: Up 8 points

The Ohio governor's favorability is up somewhat, but the overall picture hasn't changed much since the May poll, despite a burst of publicity after he formally joined the race last month and generally good reviews of his performance in the first Republican debate. He does best with caucusgoers 65 and over, 47 percent favorable, 24 percent unfavorable.

Chris Christie

  • First choice: 2 percent
  • Rank in field: Tied for 10th
  • Change since May: Down 2 points
  • Favorability: 29 percent
  • Change since May: Up 1 point

The New Jersey governor's favorability rating is deeply underwater, 29 percent favorable, 59 percent unfavorable.
His best numbers are with business-oriented establishment types. But still he's underwater with them (43 percent/49 percent).

Lindsey Graham

  • First choice: Less than 1 percent
  • Rank in field: Tied for 15th
  • Change since May: Down 1 point
  • Favorability: 15 percent
  • Change since May: Down 7 points

The South Carolina U.S. senator is severely underwater in favorability: 15 percent have favorable feelings toward him, and 59 percent unfavorable. He's become better-known to caucusgoers since the May poll, but they're not liking what they see.

George Pataki

  • First choice: Less than 1 percent
  • Rank in field: Tied for 15th
  • Change since May: Unchanged
  • Favorability: 9 percent
  • Change since May: Down 1 point

The former New York governor is upside down in favorability, with 9 percent favorable and 40 percent unfavorable. Half of caucusgoers don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

Jim Gilmore

  • First choice: Less than 1 percent
  • Rank in field: Tied for 15th
  • Change since May: Not a declared candidate at time of May poll
  • Favorability: 4 percent

The former Virginia governor has not visited Iowa since announcing his candidacy late last month. Three-fourths of caucusgoers don't know enough about him to form an opinion.