It looks like a quiet Christmas on Iowa's campaign trail
Iowans will have some political respite around Christmas: The nonstop presidential candidate blizzard is forecast to die down for three days straight.
We haven't had a three-day candidate-free spree since Thanksgiving, The Des Moines Register's candidate visit tracker shows.
Unless some candidate makes a last-minute announcement that alters this Christmas miracle, just three White House hopefuls will spread their cheer in Iowa during Christmas week. Republican Mike Huckabee will be here Monday, and Democrat Hillary Clinton on Tuesday. Democrat Bernie Sanders wraps up a three-day swing with a final event at noon Wednesday. But there's nary a candidate in sight from Thursday, Christmas Eve, through Saturday.
All is quiet on the campaign trail until Democrat Martin O'Malley reappears with bells on Sunday, two days after Christmas, and Republicans Chris Christie and Marco Rubio hail a sleigh to Iowa the next day. Most are sparing Iowans their presence until the new year.
The reason for the rare lull: Iowans get an extra month this time to make up their minds. At this point in the 2012 presidential election cycle, campaigns were in a frenzy of voter persuasion before the Jan. 3 caucuses. This year, the first ballots in the nation won't be cast here until Feb. 1.
MORE ON IOWA CAUCUSES:
Iowans tend to ignore politics when the Christmas and Jewish holidays roll around, said Steffen Schmidt, who has been analyzing presidential politics here since 1970.
"That's especially true this year because there are no happy — or merry — warriors. The entire run-up to 2016 is the most bitter, negative, divisive, nasty and scary I've seen in 45 years. None of the candidates offer 'a shining city on the hill,' nor a 'good morning in America' the way Ronald Reagan did. The campaigns seem intent on scaring the devil out of citizens and voters," Schmidt said, referring to rather non-Christmas-spirit political rhetoric about terrorism, carpet bombing, gun violence and death.
Political operatives have to weigh pros and cons: Is it risky to abandon the field for a few days, when there are quite a few “political tourists” here from other states, and when Iowans want to make a holiday activity of the presidential race, going as a family to see as many candidates as possible? Or is it worse to tick off Iowans by continuing to campaign, keep the phone banks open and run TV ads through the holidays?
Voters won't get any calls on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day from Iowa-based conservative call center Campaign HQ, which does telephone-based fundraising and advocacy and is handling telemarketing for GOP front-runner Ted Cruz.
"We want our employees to spend time at home celebrating with family. But with the caucuses coming up on Feb. 1, campaigns need to take advantage of every opportunity to connect with voters," said the company's president, longtime Iowa political operative Nicole Schlinger. "One of the best gifts you can give your family is better leadership for our country, and the presidential race will be a big topic at Christmas dinner this year."
Pataki's Christmas gift: free Iowa airtime
Campaigns are loathe to talk about their holiday strategy — and thus tip off their opponents. A few well-funded candidates, including Democrats Clinton and Bernie Sanders and Republicans Rubio, Jeb Bush and Ben Carson, will slide down chimneys into Iowans' living rooms via TV commercials.
Earlier this year, Cruz paid for an Easter Sunday TV ad in Iowa, talking about God's blessing on America and his motivation for seeking the White House. Huckabee posted a Thanksgiving ad that talked about faith, freedom and how badly he thinks President Barack Obama is doing.
Cruz struck again with a holiday ad that aired during “Saturday Night Live.” The tongue-in-cheek infomercial-style TV ad shows him reading faux Christmas “classics” to his daughters, like “Auditing St. Nick,” “Rudolph the Underemployed Reindeer” and “The Grinch Who Lost Her Emails.”
Longtime Iowa Democratic operative Norm Sterzenbach said candidates are safe to take off time for the holidays — and Iowans will see through those who don't.
"I would cut off phones on Sunday or Monday through the weekend after Christmas," said Sterzenbach, a principal at the digital communications firm GPS Impact. "I would avoid ads during holiday/family programming during this time. And cut all negative ads. A holiday ad is fine, but I think Iowans see it for what it is, so I don't think there is any value in spending the money on it."
Or will a cheeky contender do something nontraditional to be sure to stay top of mind for families who will be discussing politics at holiday gatherings?
"Maybe Donald Trump will dress up as St. Nick, camouflage 'Trump One' as a 'UGE!' sleigh, and fly over Iowa yelling 'Ho! Ho! Ho!' That would be genius!" Schmidt said.
FREE TIME OVER THE HOLIDAYS? Listen to "Three Tickets," our podcast on the Iowa caucuses
CANDIDATE HOLIDAY PLANS
What are the candidates' strategies for the holidays? Here's what their aides were willing to share:
TED CRUZ: Now that he's climbed to the front of the GOP pack here, he's temporarily leaving the state to blitz through the South, wrapping up his tour in Oklahoma two days before Christmas. The Texas U.S. senator won't be in Iowa again until after New Year's. But some of the Texans who moved into Camp Cruz, the campaign-rented apartment complex in Des Moines, will be staying through the holidays to root for him here.
HILLARY CLINTON: The Democratic front-runner has made more trips to Iowa since the Nov. 14 Democratic debate here than the rest of her rivals, and she'll be back for a one-day trip on Tuesday. The ad she's running in Iowa right now is on the cost of prescription drugs. No holiday-themed ad is planned.
Clinton has dozens of Iowa organizing events on her campaign website, ending with a 6 to 8 p.m. phone bank event in Davenport on Tuesday, where neighbors will bring their cellphones, then start "reaching out to as many Iowans as possible."
After that event, it looks as if the campaign is mostly going dark for Christmas, but activities will continue behind the scenes. Some volunteers are hosting organizers and other staff for Christmas meals. Some are delivering homemade holiday cards to their precinct captains. And staff will come together before New Year's Eve to do caucus training, aides said.
DONALD TRUMP: During a recent Burlington campaign rally, Trump excoriated the "war on Christmas," saying he's "a good Christian," so if he's president, "we're going to be saying 'Merry Christmas' at every store … You can leave 'Happy Holidays' at the corner." The New York businessman, who is in second place in the GOP race in Iowa, according to the latest Iowa Poll, held a public rally in Cedar Rapids Saturday. He isn't expected to be back in Iowa during the holidays.
BERNIE SANDERS: The Vermont U.S. senator, who is in second place in the Democratic horse race, is doing a three-day swing through western Iowa before Christmas: from Sioux City on Monday to Storm Lake, Carroll, Harlan and Council Bluffs on Tuesday, then Red Oak on Wednesday.
MARTIN O'MALLEY: The Democratic underdog won't be in Iowa again until Dec. 27-30 for events in Des Moines, Waterloo and a few surrounding counties, aides said. Before Christmas, he was scheduled to be in New Hampshire Sunday and Monday, then at home in Maryland with his family for Christmas Day, aides said.
O'Malley will do a holiday party for staff when he arrives in Iowa on the 27th.
"It's just a way to say thank you to all the staff for their hard work so far, and bring us all together as we head into the final push," spokeswoman Kristin Sosanie said.
The former governor's son, William O'Malley, 17, will spend his Christmas break from high school with the campaign field team, organizing for the caucuses as he did over his summer break.
BEN CARSON: Carson, in third place in the latest Iowa Poll, has seen his popularity with Iowa Republicans wane in recent weeks. He was in Iowa on Saturday for stops in Carroll, Harlan and Council Bluffs. He won't be back until sometime in January.
But Carson's face will be on TV screens through the holidays, in a campaign commercial set to emotional, wordless music that seeks to remind Iowans why many have found the trailblazing brain surgeon so inspirational. The ad, "These Hands," is a nod to Carson's memoir, "Gifted Hands," which became a movie starring Cuba Gooding Jr. in 2009. In keeping with his pledge, the Carson commercials say nothing negative about others, strategists noted.
And the Carson campaign bus just finished a "house call" tour with Ben's wife, Candy, who just released a Christmas album. She's been leading caroling in nursing homes, schools and neighborhoods around the state, said Carson's Iowa director, Ryan Rhodes. "We have been handing out Christmas ornaments that say "Team Carson Says Merry Christmas #BC2DC," he said.
MARCO RUBIO: Rubio, in fourth place here, won't be back until a week after Christmas. The Republican Florida U.S. senator will be working voters in New Hampshire Monday through Wednesday, then heading home to Florida to be with family for Christmas. He'll be back Dec. 28-30, aides said.
Rubio's current Iowa TV ad makes a play for evangelical Christian conservative voters. "Millions with traditional values (are) branded bigots and haters," it says. It goes on: "A generation drowning in debt, and a president humiliated by Putin, Iran and Islamic jihadists." His aides declined to say if they plan to swap in something more cheery for the holidays.
JEB BUSH: Bush will jump back and forth between New Hampshire and Florida from Monday through Jan. 1. He'll be in Miami with his family for Christmas, aides said.
The former Florida governor's campaign will be dark over the holidays in Iowa with no TV ads. But the super PAC that supports him is running two Iowa ads. "Desk" criticizes rivals Cruz, Trump and Rubio on national security, then promotes Bush as the only credible leader to fight ISIS. "Tough Enough" features his Tuesday debate showdown with Trump.
MIKE HUCKABEE: The Republican former Arkansas governor will spend one day in Iowa the week of Christmas, making four stops Monday, including an Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition Cedar Rapids area house party, aides said. The former Arkansas governor did a TV ad in Iowa for Thanksgiving but has none planned for Christmas. He will probably be back before January, aides said.
RAND PAUL: The Kentucky U.S. senator doesn't return to Iowa until the first week of January, but Iowans will hear him doing interviews on local radio stations in the meantime. For Christmas, he'll be with his family in Bowling Green, Ky. No holiday TV ad is planned for Iowa.
CHRIS CHRISTIE: Christie is out of Iowa until a three-day trip in late December, but expect some Iowa endorsements to pop into the news in the meantime. Before Christmas, the New Jersey governor is focusing on New Hampshire, scheduled to roll along on a bus tour Saturday through Tuesday. He'll be home in New Jersey with his family before heading to Iowa Dec. 28-30 for stops in Dubuque, Davenport, Muscatine, Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, Marshalltown and Waukee, aides said. No holiday TV ad is planned.
CARLY FIORINA: The former businesswoman held a Christmas reception Friday night at the Figge Art Museum in Davenport and did Iowa stops in Burlington and Washington on Saturday. Then she's off to South Carolina before heading home to Virginia with her family for Christmas, aides said. She, too, has no holiday TV ad for Iowa, although her super PAC is running an online ad that likens her to Margaret Thatcher, the first female prime minister of Britain.
RICK SANTORUM: The former Pennsylvania U.S. senator will return to Iowa between Christmas and New Year's. He will be spending the holiday with his family in Virginia, aides said.
OTHERS: None of the other candidates have announced any holiday travel or advertising in Iowa.
Shorter reprieves in past years
Candidates couldn't afford to spend long off the trail during the holiday season in the past two caucus cycles, when the caucuses were held on Jan. 3.
In the 2012 cycle, the interlude without in-person presidential politicking was just two days, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. On Dec. 23, Republican Michele Bachmann was on the eighth day of her 10-day tour of Iowa’s 99 counties. Rival Rick Santorum was back at it the day after Christmas, hunting gamebirds with U.S. Rep. Steve King in hopes of bagging his endorsement. (King didn’t end up endorsing before the caucuses.)
The break in politicking was but a day in 2007. On Christmas Eve, Connecticut U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd, who had moved his family to Des Moines in November, visited Carroll with his wife and two young daughters. They joined in a holiday service project, helping fill boxes of goodies for shipment to Iowa soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan. No candidates held public events on Christmas Day, but the Dodd family spent part of their holiday at the Brenton Skating Plaza in downtown Des Moines.
On the day after Christmas, eight candidates had events in Iowa: Democrats Dodd, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, and Republicans Mike Huckabee, John McCain and Fred Thompson.
Yes, candidates are in Iowa a lot
It’s an exaggeration to say presidential candidates are always in Iowa this time of year. But it’s not far off.
In the 203 days from June 1 through Sunday, Dec. 20, according to The Des Moines Register candidate tracker:
- There’s been no stretch longer than three days without a presidential candidate campaigning in Iowa.
- There has been no candidate campaigning here on 51 days of the 203. Looked at another way, there’s been a candidate seeking your vote in Iowa 75 percent of the time since June 1.
- The busiest month? August, when candidates missed only four days. Candidates made a beeline here for the Iowa State Fair, and the U.S. Senate was in recess.
- Until Sunday, candidates had missed only three days in December.