In fluid race, Iowans remain open to Bush's candidacy

Iowans say they’re not ready to write off Jeb Bush’s caucus campaign just yet.

The former Florida governor, once considered the odds-on favorite to win the Republican nomination for president, has been battling bad press amid stalling poll numbers and another lackluster debate performance last week.

But several audience members at the Growth and Opportunity Party in Des Moines Saturday credited him with an energetic performance that rekindled their interest.

And strategists interviewed by the Register Sunday still see the possibility of a successful path for him in Iowa. The Feb. 1 caucuses are three months away, an eternity in politics, they said, and many likely Republicans caucusgoers have yet to settle firmly on their choices.

MORE: How Jeb Bush intends to pursue Iowa

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“I think if you were to take a poll of every Iowa caucusgoer, not more than 20 percent could tell you definitively that this is my No. 1 choice and I’m not going to rethink that at all,” said Steve Scheffler, Iowa’s Republican national committeeman and a longtime GOP activist. “The race is real fluid right now. I just think we’ve got a long ways to go, and I don’t think you can count anybody out at this point as long as they’ve got organization.”

Tim Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, agreed. With so many Republicans vying for the nomination, there’s still likely to be plenty of movement, he said, and many voters are likely waiting until January to see who's still standing.

Bush on the offensive

A recently leaked memo detailing the Bush campaign’s ground game has ramped up speculation in some camps that Bush doesn't have the organizational capacity to secure a caucus victory. The 112-page report, obtained by U.S. News & World Report, was presented to donors in Houston following last week’s Republican debate.

That leaked memo reinforced the post-debate narrative that Bush lacks energy and charisma  and had been schooled by competitor Marco Rubio after attempting an ill-executed critique of Rubio’s Senate attendance record.

All of that is laid against the backdrop of declining poll numbers. The most recent Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll showed 5 percent of respondents listing Bush as their first choice in the caucuses. That's down 3 points from an Iowa Poll in May.

Hagle said the number of precinct captains listed in the leaked campaign memo (129 in Iowa’s more than 1,700 precincts) causes some concern. Campaigns try to have a captain in as many of Iowa’s precincts as possible, he noted.

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The Bush team could be focusing efforts on larger precincts where the former governor is likely to have better appeal, but regardless, “it means there’s still a lot of work ahead.”

“This is when campaigns really have to get their ground game going, and that means identifying those precinct captains, making those calls to people that you thought perhaps had been your supporters and so forth,” Hagle said. “Because January is when they have to put in that push to really make sure that whatever ground game they’ve got, that it’s fully energized.”

Bush himself in an interview Sunday with Chuck Todd on "Meet the Press" said he remains optimistic about his chances to win the nomination.

"I think I have the skills to win," he said. "You look at the record of Hillary Clinton and she's a smart person, she's talented, but she has no record of accomplishment. Are we going to put up someone who doesn't have a record of accomplishment against her?  Or someone who cut taxes every year, totaling $19 billion, reduced the government workforce by 11 percent?

"… You see the gridlock in Washington and compare it to a conservative reformer like I was as governor?  I think that's a pretty compelling story."

Down but not out

Some likely Republican caucusgoers  who said they were open to Bush in the recent Iowa Poll said Sunday they’re not ready to rule him out, but they have concerns.

“I’m having second thoughts now between (Bush) and Marco Rubio as my second choice,” said Hope Aldrich, a retired Waterloo resident who previously considered Bush her second choice behind Donald Trump.

But seeing the exchange between Bush and Rubio during the debate planted a seed of doubt, she said. She worries Bush doesn’t stand out on a debate stage among other Republicans who seem better able to fire up­ their base. That could hurt Bush in a general election, she said.

“For a lot of — I think they call them low-information voters — they view things differently,” she said. “It’s not even about issues for them. It’s about maybe their sense of leadership abilities or something just about the way they look.”

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But Aldrich said she wasn’t ready to make a final decision about Bush — or any other Republican, for that matter.

Joe Malik, a teacher in Bettendorf, said his top choice for the presidency is Ohio Gov. John Kasich, followed by Bush. He likes that both men are more moderate than some in the field, and he said he would not vote for a Republican that swings too far to the right.

He said he worries about Bush’s most recent performance because it could open up an avenue for a tea party Republican to surge.

“I (worry) that some of the other candidates that are not as viable, to me, for president, are going to rise in the polls and people would elect them instead,” he said.

But even that concern over Bush's performance, Malik said, isn't enough to get him to turn his back.

Cash, staff important

Bush has a larger campaign organization in Iowa than most candidates. And despite recent belt-tightening, he remains in the top tier of candidates in cash on hand as of Sept. 30. And while a candidate can't coordinate with super political action committees, outside groups supporting Bush are still sitting on a bundle of cash.

“Is there still a path for Bush? Sure.” Hagle said. “Because he’s got the resources. Because he’s got that knowledge. Even if he’s having a bad time right now, he can still come back.”

Scheffler agreed. He said that as long as Bush commits to campaigning in Iowa frequently, he sees an avenue for him to be successful.

RELATED: Jeb Bush talks up social conservative credentials

“I think he’s got a compelling message. He’s got a good record as governor,” Scheffler said. “Again, different people take different criteria into consideration before they figure out who they’re going to support. So I think there’s room as long as you’ve got money, you’ve put infrastructure together and organization. ...

"If you’ve got both of those and you work it right, and maybe toward the end you get a little bit lucky, things could turn out pretty good for you."