Iowa caucus coin flip count unknown
In an unknown number of Iowa Democratic caucus precincts Monday, a county delegate was awarded after the flip of a coin.
Why is the number unknown? Because officials who reported county delegate totals without using the party's smartphone app weren't required to signify if the win was the result of a coin toss, said Sam Lau, a spokesman for the Iowa Democratic Party.
Lau said seven coin flips were reported statewide through the app, and Bernie Sanders won six of them.
The Des Moines Register has identified six coin flips through social media and one in an interview with a caucus participant. Of those seven, Clinton was the apparent winner of six. It's unknown if there is any overlap between the coin flips identified by the Register and the coin flips the state party confirmed.
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But it’s highly unlikely the coin flips had an impact on the caucuses final outcome, said Norm Sterzenbach, a former executive director of the party who said he would have caucused for Hillary Clinton had he not been occupied with other political responsibilities. The results, declared official 17 hours after the caucuses began, showed Clinton won 49.8 percent of statewide delegate equivalents, while Sanders won 49.6 percent.
“The data we have suggest the game of chance was a rare occurrence and of the data we have, Sanders won the majority of those delegates that were chosen through the game of chance,” Sterzenbach said.
The coin tosses were used to determine county delegates, of which there are roughly 11,000 across the state from 1,681 precincts. The county delegates influence but are not the same as the 1,400 statewide delegate equivalents that were awarded in the final results.
Another way to look at it: Statewide delegate equivalents that determine the outcome on caucus night are derived from the county-level delegates. But statewide delegates are aggregated across the state and weighted in a manner that makes individual county delegate selections at a handful of precincts count for a tiny fraction of the ultimate result.
The Register requested a list of each precinct coin flip and its outcome, as well as the total number of precincts that reported outside of the smartphone app.
Sterzenbach acknowledged the coin flip sounds like an odd way to determine county delegates, but he noted that statewide election officials can use the same method to decide ties. It’s a longtime practice, and occurred an unknown number of times in 2008 when Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses, he said.
A coin flip is used in the Democratic caucuses when, for example, an equal number of caucusgoers support two candidates in a precinct with five county delegates. The coin flip would determine which candidate is awarded the fifth county delegate.
Another coin flip scenario occurred in Precinct 2-4 in Ames, where supporters of candidates Sanders and Clinton disputed the results after 60 caucus participants apparently disappeared from the proceedings.
Here’s what happened in Ames, according to David Schweingruber, an associate professor of sociology at Iowa State University (and Sanders supporter) who participated in the caucus:
A total of 484 eligible caucus attendees were initially recorded at the site. But when each candidate’s preference group was counted, Clinton had 240 supporters, Sanders had 179 and Martin O’Malley had five (causing him to be declared non-viable).
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Those figures add up to just 424 participants, leaving 60 apparently missing. When those numbers were plugged into the formula that determines delegate allocations, Clinton received four delegates and Sanders received three — leaving one delegate unassigned.
Unable to account for that numerical discrepancy and the orphan delegate it produced, the Sanders campaign challenged the results and precinct leaders called a Democratic Party hot line set up to advise on such situations.
Party officials recommended they settle the dispute with a coin toss.
A Clinton supporter correctly called “heads” on a quarter flipped in the air, and Clinton received a fifth delegate.
The Register has been collecting reports of coin toss wins, reported on Twitter and YouTube. These are unverified by the Iowa Democratic Party and one of the reasons the newspaper has requested the voting records.
Clinton won in a precinct in Des Moines, at another precinct in Des Moines, in Newton, in West Branch and in Davenport.
Sanders won a flip in Hardin Township in Johnson County.