8 things to watch for at Iowa GOP's big Lincoln Dinner

Saturday's Republican party fundraiser will be the biggest presidential "cattle call" in Iowa so far this election cycle, but the after-hours receptions may be where White House contenders secure activists' allegiances.

Eleven White House hopefuls — Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump and Scott Walker — will get 10 minutes each to make their pitch to Iowa voters at Saturday night's Lincoln Dinner, a fundraiser for the Iowa GOP at the Iowa Events Center.

After the speeches upstairs, there will be receptions downstairs.

Iowans can free-flow between the contenders' hospitality rooms, mingling with the politicos of their choosing.

"Campaigning from the stage is not sufficient here. The true tests will come as people go room to room narrowing their choice," said Jonas Cutler, a West Des Moines Republican and secretary of the Polk County GOP.

The personal interactions will help seal relationships, said longtime GOP campaign operative Grant Young, an Iowa native.

"Every single person in the room on Saturday night will be at their precinct caucus on Feb. 1," Young predicted. "Most of them will be running the meeting or working on behalf of their candidate that night. This isn't another cattle call. This is an NFL combine for activists."

Here's what to watch for:

1. PARTY ROOMS WITH TREATS.

Some of the presidential contestants will offer light catering or other enticements.

Root beer floats will be on tap in the hospitality room for Carson, a doctor turned conservative book author. Santorum, a former Pennsylvania U.S. senator, will give away door prizes.

Perry's team will serve ice cream. The former Texas governor has a tradition of ending the day on the campaign trail by stopping by an ice cream shop. "I think it harkens back to a 'treat' he'd have after a long day's work on the farm as a kid," said Robert Haus, Perry's Iowa strategist. "We plan on saving a big serving for our fellow farmer and ice cream lover, Chuck Grassley."

Walker, the Big Cheese in the Wisconsin governor's office, and Fiorina, a former business executive, are planning something special, aides said, but wouldn't say what.

Other 2016'ers are keeping it simple, with no hand-outs. The Bush room will be just Jeb.

And two contenders — Paul, a U.S. senator from Kentucky, and Pataki, a former New York governor — aren't hosting receptions. Paul has a family function on Sunday, so he's flying back to Kentucky after his speech, aides said.

MORE: Full Iowa Caucus coverage | Candidate tracker

2. SHORT SPEECHES.

When each presidential contestant reaches the 10-minute mark, the dinner's organizers will cut off the microphone. The contenders will have a clock timer, plus green, yellow, then red lights to warn them, said Charlie Szold, spokesman for the Iowa GOP.

The identical blocks of time will make it easier for Iowans to compare speeches — how much time the contenders spend defining themselves, time spent running against likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and time spent running against other Republicans.

3. IOWA STRAW POLL INTRIGUE.

With the Republican Party of Iowa's straw poll 85 days away, will any candidate commit from the stage to participating in this hot potato event?

Party officials, who have battled to keep the straw poll alive after years of criticism that it's irrelevant to the race and a waste of money for candidates, will leave ticket-sales fliers on dinner guests' seats. Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, one of the few non-2016'ers who will take the microphone, will advertise that the $30 tickets are a bargain right now at $5 off.

Two candidates have confirmed they won't attend: Bush and Graham.

MORE: Full Lincoln Dinner coverage | Download Iowa Caucuses app

4. SURPRISE STAND-OUT?

Who will Iowa Republicans be surprised by?

"Whoever can create a 'pop' at the event with a strong message or a stunning performance — and not (Mike) Huckabee playing the bass — is likely to get a bump going forward," said Michael Cheney, a former dean at Drake University who is now a professor of communication and an associate professor of economics at the University of Illinois at Springfield.

Expectations are highest for Walker, likely caucusgoers' current favorite, according to polling.

The news media has offered a steady menu of articles and opinion pieces reminding Iowans why they shouldn't forget some of the GOP'ers who don't rank in the top half in the polls. "Why it's a mistake to dismiss Bobby Jindal," Stuart Rothenberg wrote for Roll Call. "Why Rick Perry connects in Iowa," Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin wrote. There was "Taking Donald Trump seriously" by the Washington Examiner's Byron York.

"I also think Fiorina has a great opportunity to grow her support," California-based GOP strategist Rob Stutzman told the Register. "Obviously she's the only woman in the race, but she only has to compete with Carson in the 'government outsider' category as well."

"Sure, Trump is an outsider," Stutzman said of the real estate entrepreneur turned reality TV star, "but assume he's there to give a monologue."

5. REACTION TO BUSH.

For Bush, a former Florida governor, this will be the second trip to Iowa this presidential election cycle, and his first since March. Polling shows Bush is struggling in Iowa, coming in seventh among the 14 contenders whom Quinnipiac University tested in a survey released earlier this month.

How much will Bush play up his conservative credentials? How much will he talk about foreign policy in the wake of confusion this week over his answers on the wisdom of invading Iraq in 2003?

Stutzman said: "I'd look for Bush to connect authentically with the crowd like he did at CPAC (February's Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, D.C.) and surprise attendees who are only getting him through a media lens right now."

6. WHY FOUR ARE MISSING.

Four contenders are sitting this one out: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio.

Rubio will be in Miami for his daughter's birthday celebrations, his spokesman said. One of Cruz's daughters has a piano recital, his spokeswoman said. Aides for Huckabee and Christie didn't offer explanations.

Absentee contenders were given an option to purchase a hospitality room, which are free for participating 2016'ers, but none did, organizers said.

But representatives of Christie and Rubio will offer a presence at the event, their aides said.

7. SUBTLE BARBS.

Which contenders will dig into GOP rivals who are perceived threats?

Will anyone gang up on Walker, who was 8 percentage points ahead of his nearest competitors in Iowa in the Quinnipiac poll? Will anyone needle Bush, the current national frontrunner in the RealClearPolitics.com rolling average of polls? Or will the four no-shows be the targets?

"Remember that (former Virginia Gov.) Jim Gilmore got his 10 minutes of fame in the 2008 cycle by saying, 'We can't win with Rudy McRomney,' " Young said.

8. RELIGIOUS MESSAGES.

Who will stick with some of the religious conservative points they've made when speaking at events organized by evangelical Christian groups?

At the last cattle call in Iowa, the Faith & Freedom Coalition spring dinner, one big takeaway was that all the speakers were against same-sex marriage. (Six skipped the Faith & Freedom event: Bush, Carson, Christie, Pataki, Trump, and Graham, a U.S. senator from South Carolina.

Iowa activists who consider themselves evangelical Christians will be at the Lincoln Dinner, but the audience will likely be a broader cross-section of Republicans.

The two religious conservative contenders faring the best in polling in Iowa right now, Cruz and Huckabee, aren't making an appearance.

Basics on the Republican Party of Iowa's Lincoln Dinner

WHEN: Saturday, May 16. Doors open at 4:30 p.m. The program is scheduled to run from 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m.

WHERE: Iowa Events Center's Community Choice Credit Union Convention Center, 833 5th Ave., Des Moines.

Democrats respond with website

In honor of the Republicans' Lincoln Dinner, the Iowa Democratic Party has a caustic new website to help voters track "when the circus is next showing up in your town."

The "Iowa GOP Circus" website plays off Republican U.S. Rep. Steve King's comment to the Spencer Daily Reporter that Iowans have "a ringside seat for the greatest show on Earth" for the caucuses.

The Democrats offer a calendar of the GOP presidential contenders' upcoming Iowa events, with some commentary about the field that includes "the illusionist," "the contortionist," "the trapeze artists," "the ventriloquist," "the human cannonball," and "the tight rope walkers."

"Watch closely or you'll miss it as the GOP candidates for president try to make you believe they care about working Iowa families, while pushing for policies that reward only extremists and the mega-rich!" the website says. "Watch as their billionaire special interest backers speak and the words come magically out of the GOP candidates' mouths!"

How to follow coverage

It's another politics-heavy weekend in Iowa, and the Register's team will cover candidates and events around the state.

We will have staff Saturday at the Iowa National Security Action Summit, sponsored by the Family Leader; the Working Families Summit, sponsored in part by the Iowa Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO; the Iowa Republican Party's Lincoln Dinner; and events featuring individual hopefuls.

You can follow our staff on Twitter all day using #IAcaucus, and, for the evening event, #LincolnDinner. You can also follow us on our Snapchat account: dmrcaucus.

Watch the livestream of the Lincoln Dinner speeches and see our coverage at DesMoinesRegister.com/LincolnDinner.

MORE: Full Lincoln Dinner coverage | Download Iowa Caucuses app | Full Iowa Caucus coverage | Candidate tracker