Grassley still popular despite Supreme Court fight, poll says

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A word of caution for Democrats thinking U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley’s controversial stance on a U.S. Supreme Court vacancy might make him vulnerable at the ballot box this year — the veteran Republican remains popular in Iowa.

The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll — which was conducted Feb. 21-24, as the court controversy was unfolding — shows Grassley’s approval rating holding steady at 57 percent, while just 28 percent say they disapprove of the job he’s doing.

That approval is down 7 percentage points from a year ago, but it remains well within his normal range over the last several years, Register pollster J. Ann Selzer said. Over the past decade, Grassley has rated as high as 75 percent, in January 2009, and as low as 54 percent, in February 2010.

The poll was conducted by Selzer & Co., which surveyed 804 Iowa adults. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The results suggest that even Iowans who are frustrated by Grassley’s role in blocking the nomination proceedings aren’t ready to deny him the seventh term he’s seeking this fall.

“This may be politically damaging for the Republican Party, but I don’t think it is for Senator Grassley,” University of Northern Iowa political scientist Chris Larimer said. “He’s built up such a considerable amount of goodwill across the state that it seems as though voters separate him from the Republican Party.”

In recent weeks, Grassley has been at the center of a national controversy over the Supreme Court vacancy opened by the unexpected death of Justice Antonin Scalia on Feb. 13. Grassley serves as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which holds confirmation hearings for judicial nominees put forward by the president.

Grassley has joined with other Republican senators in refusing to hold these hearings, effectively stopping the confirmation process before Democratic President Barack Obama has named a nominee. Republicans say the appointment should be delayed until a new president is elected this fall, so that voters have a say in the ideological direction of the high court.

Democrats have decried this position as obstructionism, and on Thursday multiple sources told the Register that former Iowa Lt. Gov. Patty Judge will enter the Senate race against him. Judge told the Register last week that she was considering entering the race largely in response to Grassley's handling of the nomination.

In follow-up interviews, several poll respondents said they were not happy with Grassley’s role in the controversy.

Pamela Glassmeyer, 58, of Logan, told the pollster last week that she approved of the job Grassley was doing. But when contacted by a reporter Wednesday, her view had shifted markedly.

“His position on the Supreme Court seems to follow the party line in going so far to the right,” Glassmeyer said. “He seems to be doing what other people are saying, not what he thinks is best. That has really colored my opinion of him in the past week.”

A self-identified independent, Glassmeyer said she would be “looking closely” at Grassley’s record as the election approaches, as well as studying his ultimate opponent.

Poll respondent Richard Grimm, of Waterloo, also expressed disappointment in Grassley’s refusal to hold nomination hearings, but said he would continue to back him.

“Looking back at his past history and the job he’s done, I would still support the man for re-election,” said Grimm, a 76-year-old retired civil engineer. “I just think he’s making a bad mistake and will probably lose votes for the stance that he’s taken. It’s purely a political party play, and there isn’t any space for that in this situation.”

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Grassley probably won’t face a greater challenge in November because a political fight over a Supreme Court nomination simply isn’t a “voting issue” for most Iowans, Davenport-based Republican political consultant Steve Grubbs said.

Voters decide who to support based on issues such as taxes, the economy and national security — not partisan wrangling over a judicial appointment.

“It’s unlikely the Supreme Court nomination has any lasting impact on Senator Grassley’s re-election,” Grubbs said. “There’s very little opening to upset him in his bid for re-election.”

But Grant Woodard, a Des Moines attorney and Democratic operative, disagreed. Challenging Grassley represents a steep climb for Democrats, he acknowledged, but the court controversy could make the race competitive because it undermines Grassley's hard-won political identity: that he's a hardworking, practical and independent.

“I don’t think anybody running against Grassley is under the illusion that this will be an easy campaign — he’s the undisputed king of Iowa politics,” Woodard said. “But Grassley has created a persona over his lifetime of being a moderate, work-together-and-get-things-done Republican, and I think this does tarnish that brand.”

Ernst approvals rise; many have no opinion

Iowa’s junior U.S. senator is not nearly as popular as her more tenured colleague, but she’s also not as well-known.

Forty-three percent of Iowa Poll respondents approve of the job U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst is doing, compared with 31 percent who disapprove and 25 percent who say they’re not sure.

Ernst was elected to her first term in 2014 and is still becoming known to her constituents.

Her approval ratings are up 5 percentage points from a year ago, while her disapproval ratings and the percentage of respondents unable to form an opinion about her have dropped 3 percentage points each.

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Feb. 21-24 for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 804 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the sample of 804 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.