Rubio to dominate Iowa televisions during sprint to caucus day

Marco Rubio is poised to dominate Iowa’s television airwaves with about 7,000 ads scheduled to run from Jan. 1 until caucus day — an effort that accounts for more than one-third of all political ads slated to air during that time.

The purchases on Rubio's behalf make up more than half of the $9.4 million in total spending for ads that are scheduled to air across the state during the final month of the caucus campaign.

Rubio’s campaign and a supportive super PAC have together spent about $5.1 million on those ads, which are scheduled to air from Jan. 1 to Feb. 1, the date of the 2016 Iowa caucuses, according to a Des Moines Register analysis of records filed with the Federal Communications Commission through Dec. 31,

“Back in the middle of 2015, we were, because of strong fundraising in the early part of the year, able to reserve significant portions of airtime in Iowa in December and January leading into the caucus,” said Jeff Sadosky, a spokesman for Conservative Solutions PAC, which supports Rubio. “That was done both to ensure we’re operating as cost effectively as possible but also to ensure access to prime television time.”

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In total, Iowans will be subjected to more than 17,000 TV ads during that final stretch. But that's less than a third of the more than 60,000 TV ads they will have seen throughout the entire caucus season — ads worth about $33.8 million, according to the Register’s analysis.

That doesn’t even include more recent buys made in the early days of January. A super PAC supporting former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee made a $500,000 ad buy, and the campaigns for both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz have made buys of about $1 million.

Justin Holmes, an associate professor of political science at the University of Northern Iowa with a focus on political advertising, said television ads are unlikely to sway voters in a general election that pits one Republican against one Democrat. But in a primary or caucus cycle, when many candidates of the same party espouse similar ideas, any single thing can convince a voter.

“I can’t guarantee it’s an ad that’s going to do it,” Holmes said. “But when people are volatile and the race is bouncing around, any piece of information has the potential to do that.”

Jordan Russell, Rubio’s Iowa spokesman, said he could not comment on media strategy. But in December, Rubio’s national campaign manager, Terry Sullivan, told the New York Times that TV time is critical to garner positive media attention.

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"More people in Iowa see Marco on ‘Fox and Friends’ than see Marco when he is in Iowa," Sullivan told the Times.

Rubio has spent 36 days campaigning in Iowa this cycle. That puts him behind six other Republicans for time spent in the state, but still ahead of rivals Chris Christie, Jeb Bush and Donald Trump.

For Rubio, who is in third place in Iowa with 12.6 percent support here, according to RealClear Politics' rolling average, being on TV could help keep him on the minds of voters and of the pundits who control the news cycle.

“It makes you look serious,” Holmes said of being on TV. “It sends sort of a signal to voters that this is a top-tier candidate. This is a well-funded candidate. This is somebody who’s in it for the long haul.”

Cruz plays light in TV ads

The ad-heavy Rubio strategy directly contrasts with the tactics of Iowa Republican front-runner Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

As of Dec. 31, Cruz’s campaign had spent about $3,400 on just 33 TV ads that are set to air during the final month ahead of the caucuses. A supportive super PAC, Keep the Promise, announced a $1 million TV and radio ad buy on Dec. 31.

David Barton, president of Keep the Promise, said his group's focus has been on direct voter contact through person-to-person canvassing, direct mail and phone calls. He said the super PAC has employed 10 on-the-ground staffers. Volunteers also have been part of that effort.

He said it can be ineffective to blanket the state in TV ads when historically only about 120,000 people turn up on caucus night. Instead, he said the group prefers to advertise digitally and through social media, where it can more closely target messages and measure responses.

“Traditional airtime doesn’t make sense,” Barton said. “That’s been a Washington consultant-type approach. Not a business-type approach. We’re trying to run a business approach. … For us, we have not needed to do television (advertising), and the numbers have risen significantly.”

Super PACs like Keep the Promise and Conservative Solutions have become nearly ubiquitous this election cycle following a Supreme Court decision in 2010 known as Citizens United. That decision cleared the way for groups known as super political action committees to raise and spend unlimited amounts of money on behalf of candidates.

Those groups are legally prohibited from coordinating or communicating strategy directly with the campaigns they support, which can limit their activities. But many organizations have stepped in to try to fulfill what had previously been campaign-exclusive functions.

Those include things like the voter canvassing Barton describes. Other groups, like the one that supported Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, have hosted campaign events to which they invite the candidate to speak. Although many have questioned those activities, leaders of the super PACs insist they do not cross the boundaries into "collaboration," which is prohibited.

A primary function of many super PACs, though, has been advertising, despite the fact that they are not able to reap some of the financial benefits that are afforded to campaigns. By law, candidate campaigns get access to lower TV ad rates, but super PACs have to pay what the market will bear, which is often significantly more for the same TV time.

So even though spending was split almost evenly between campaigns and super PACs, according to the Register's analysis, campaigns have so far purchased about two-thirds of the advertising spots in Iowa.

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Newcomers and no-comers

Former neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who has been absent from Iowa’s airwaves for most of the fall, recently began booking ad time to air during the final stretch. His campaign has purchased about 1,650 spots worth more than $627,000, set to air in January.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, another latecomer to the advertising game, has scheduled 1,210 ads worth about $464,000 to air in the final month. But that’s barely a quarter of the time booked by his competitor, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who has spent close to $1.2 million on 4,601 spots in that same time frame.

It's even more recently that Huckabee, Trump and Cruz made their buys over the new year.

As some candidates race to add airtime, though, others are cutting back. The Jeb Bush campaign announced Dec. 30 it would cancel about $1 million worth of TV time it had booked. Some of those cancellations are reflected in the Register’s data, though many had not yet been filed to the FCC.

Despite the deluge of ads, a handful of candidates likely will be absent from Iowa’s airwaves during the final push ahead of caucus day. As of Dec. 31, Rick Santorum, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina had no ads scheduled to run on their behalf.

Also noteworthy

• Nearly half — or $14.9 million — of the $33.8 million spent on television advertising in Iowa has been targeted to Des Moines-area viewers. In second place is the Cedar Rapids-Waterloo market, which has seen $9.9 million in spending, followed by the Quad Cities, which saw $3.8 million worth of ads.
• Marco Rubio and the groups supporting him have surpassed Jeb Bush for money invested in TV airtime this year. Rubio and his backers have spent about $9.7 million on ads throughout the duration of the caucus cycle, compared with $8.5 million from Bush and his allies.
• Hillary Clinton and her backers lead the Democratic field in spending with spent $6.1 million. 
• However, Clinton remains the most common face on Iowa television screens. Because her campaign, not a super PAC, purchased her spots, she got more TV time for her dollar. Clinton's campaign will air more than 16,000 ads compared to the 12,710 from Rubio and his backers. 

ABOUT THIS REPORT

This exclusive report was prepared by examining political advertising records that major televisions stations serving the Iowa broadcast market, including each ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox network affiliate, filed with the Federal Communications Commission through Dec. 31. Ads aired on cable stations or satellite networks such as Dish and DirecTV were not included. The contracts detail the agreements presidential campaigns and political action committees made to purchase time and when advertising will be aired. Information gathered included the name of the committee making the purchase, the dates the ad spots began airing and ended, the number of spots bought and the gross amount spent. That information from more than 3,500 contracts was then entered into a database used in the Register’s analysis.

Assisting Register staffers with the data entry were five college students whose studies include politics, advertising and related fields. They are Maya Kliger, of Chautauqua, N.Y., majoring in political science and history at the University of Chicago; and Iowa State University students Jessica Bales, a senior public relations major from West Des Moines; Saul Bravo, a junior public relations major; Ashley Kirkpatrick, a freshman business major from Madrid; and Christian Spendlove, a senior advertising major from Ames.