IOWA CAUCUSES

Clinton keeps slim edge over Sanders in latest Iowa Poll

Donnelle Eller, and Jennifer Jacobs

DesMoines

Hillary Clinton has kept a tight grip on her slim lead over Bernie Sanders in the waning hours leading into the Iowa caucuses, a new Iowa Poll shows.

Clinton is the top pick for 45 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, with Sanders at 42 percent, The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll shows.

Clinton's support is up 3 percentage points from earlier this month, and Sanders' is 2 percentage points higher.

“This race is as tight as can be,” said David Axelrod, a national political strategist. “If Bernie Sanders had momentum headed into the final month, the race now is static and essentially tied."

“It comes down to who can grind it out on the ground on Monday night,” said Axelrod, a senior political commentator for CNN and an architect of Barack Obama's successful 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

The results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

"Turnout is everything," Axelrod said. "If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie."

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Clinton leads Sanders among Democrats who say they will definitely hit caucus sites, while Sanders leads among Democrats who say they will probably caucus.

Clinton, a former first lady and former secretary of state, wins a majority among caucusgoers who are 65 and older, Catholics and moderates. Sanders, a U.S. senator representing Vermont, wins a majority of those under 35, first-time caucusgoers and political independents.

"Clinton's voters are more certain and much more likely to have caucused before," Axelrod said. "Bernie's organizational task, counting so heavily on first-time caucusgoers — many of them young — is greater."

Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley snags 3 percent of likely caucusgoers' support. He had 4 percent support in early January.

Clinton is helped by supporters who think the system works reasonably well for people working hard to get ahead, the poll shows.

Sanders benefits from supporters who believe the system is rigged against all but the very rich and powerful.

Overall, about two-thirds of Democrats believe the system works against them.

“That theme is probably why this race is so close,” said Ann Selzer, who conducts the Iowa Poll.

The new Iowa Poll of 602 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 26-29 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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Nine percent of caucusgoers are undecided or not committed to a candidate, compared with 14 percent earlier this month. They are part of a larger group of 30 percent who are up for grabs, both those without a first choice and those with a first choice who could still be persuaded to move to another candidate.

Selzer said the data suggest Clinton's support is more solid than Sanders'.

The poll shows 83 percent of Clinton’s caucus supporters have made up their minds going into Monday’s vote, up from 69 percent earlier this month.

“That’s huge,” Selzer said. “That’s a number any candidate would like to see.”

Sixty-nine percent of Sanders’ supporters are firmly behind him coming into the caucuses, about the same as earlier this month.

The poll shows a gender and generational split among Clinton and Sanders supporters.

Clinton enjoys heavy support from older caucusgoers, especially women over 45. Sanders has support from 63 percent of those under 35 and holds the edge with men.

"The age break is stark," Axelrod said. "The man who would be the oldest president by far entering office has a solid base among the young."

Poll respondent Virginia Condon, 68, of Fonda, "toyed with the idealism" that Sanders offered before coming down in Clinton's camp, based on her experience.

"We have to be realistic,” said Condon, who works in a nursing home after a career helping people with mental and physical challenges.

She likes the attention Sanders has brought to issues such as pay and human rights inequalities, but believes Clinton will tackle those issues as well — and has the political resume needed to find consensus and make progress.

“Hillary will fight, too,” Condon said, “but it takes years to solve those kind of social and economic issues.”

18 hours on the Iowa caucuses campaign trail

Fifty-one percent of Democrats say Sanders is the candidate who cares most about “people like you,” while only 37 percent say it’s Clinton.

Danial Samar, 31, of North Liberty, likes Sanders' “honesty and integrity.” He sees other Democratic and Republican candidates pandering to voters.

“In my opinion, he has the best interests of the people at heart,” said Samar, who works in the biotech industry.

More than 80 percent of caucusing Democrats have a favorable opinion both of Clinton and of Sanders.

Large majorities also say they're enthusiastic about Clinton or Sanders as the Democratic nominee, but Clinton leads, 73 percent to 69 percent.

A majority say they've grown more comfortable with Clinton winning the nomination and serving as commander in chief, while slightly less than half say the same about Sanders.

Clinton also has an asset in her husband, Bill Clinton. Nearly three-fourths of Democrats caucusgoers say he was a successful president with good ideas. Fifty-seven percent don't care about Hillary Clinton's handling of the former president's extramarital affairs and accusations of sexual impropriety.

Marjorie Greer, 53, of Ottumwa, said she believes Hillary Clinton was an asset to her husband when he was in the White House, and she expects Bill Clinton will return the favor. "They're a great team," she said.

Samar, however, thinks Clinton seems to do whatever is necessary to get votes. “That’s not appealing.”

However, he added, “It’s not that she’s a woman. This is 2016.”

In fact, 80 percent of Democratic caucusgoers agree it’s time for a woman president, with 42 percent who strongly agree.

Maggie Miller, 19, a sophomore at the University of Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls, believes Clinton is the most qualified candidate.

“I’m happy that she’s a woman, but that’s just the cherry on top of everything she’s doing — fighting for minorities, the middle class. I hope to be part of the middle class someday.”

Although Sanders is seeking the Democratic nomination, he has run for the House and Senate as an independent and describes himself as a democratic socialist.

That label doesn't bother most likely Democratic caucusgoers. Sixty-eight percent are OK with a democratic socialist as president, including 31 percent who strongly agree.

Lynette Richards, 65 of Cedar Rapids, likes Sanders’ opposition to the Iraq war and to the proposed Bakken oil pipeline, which would cut through Iowa on its way from North Dakota to Illinois.

The retired guidance counselor has been working in her neighborhood, talking with residents and organizing efforts to get out the vote. Her neighborhood association is providing rides and making sure sidewalks are cleared of snow. “I expect to win,” she said.

Selzer said Clinton's and Sanders' caucusgoers will likely lobby hard Monday night for O’Malley backers if they fail to reach the viability threshold under Iowa Democratic Party caucus rules. It’s too close to say how the shift could break down.

Jamie Lynch, 38, of Urbandale who backs O’Malley for his moderate views, believes he might be able to attract voters.

“It will be an uphill battle, but I’ll try to sway some votes,” he said.