It's almost game time for Iowa voters
A few days ago, I asked an undecided caucusgoer what would finally push him over the top to pick one of several candidates he was still considering.
He replied, “I don’t know — a deadline comes up and you have to say something, right?”
That was Donald Todd of Slater, a semi-retired pilot who for many years flew politicians such as Steve Forbes, Mike Huckabee and Elizabeth Dole around Iowa to court voters like himself. Todd was attending a Ted Cruz event last weekend, but he was still considering Rand Paul, Ben Carson and perhaps others.
I thought of Todd when I sat down to sift through the shifting political sands for a look at where each candidate stands going into the final weekend before Monday’s caucuses. Every new poll in Iowa seems to swap the lead between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders for the Democrats. Donald Trump has led Cruz in recent polls but the margin varies wildly. Roughly every third voter I talk to at campaign events is still mulling his or her options. Assessments of campaign ground operations are like looking in a funhouse mirror.
But the deadline is coming — so what can we say?
The Republicans
The media like to talk about the three tickets out of Iowa, based on the top three places in the caucuses. Historically, it’s rare for a candidate of either party to win the nomination without at least winning bronze in Iowa. John McCain was an exception, placing a close fourth in Iowa before becoming the GOP nominee in 2008.
But ticket-punching is too definitive for the 2016 campaign. Instead, let’s talk about the three most important stories likely to come out of Iowa: The Winner’s Circle, The Center Lane, The Casualty Ward.
The Winner’s Circle: The contest between Trump and Cruz is a no holds-barred grudge match with high stakes for both candidates. If Trump tromps the rest of the field, some in the media think he’ll be unstoppable for the nomination. If Cruz can’t win Iowa, where evangelical conservatives are the most important demographic, it will be tough to recover. If someone else wins the caucuses, we all may drop dead of shock.
News that the Donald plans to skip Thursday night’s Fox News debate in Iowa was the hubris a la mode to Trump’s not-at-all-humble pie. For a front-runner to skip a debate in Iowa four days before the caucuses takes an ego the size of the Trump Tower. His action may project that he thinks the caucuses are ready to be engraved with his name, but over-confidence can backfire in a close race.
There is substance behind Trump’s bravado, however. Five of the six most recent polls have Trump leading Cruz, with margins ranging from 2 to 11 percentage points. The “gold standard” of Iowa caucus polling, the Register/Bloomberg Iowa Poll, is still to come at DesMoinesRegister.com at 5:45 p.m. Saturday. Thousands of people are turning out to Trump’s campaign events.
The Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday shows Trump with support that transcends party factions. He does well with almost every type of likely caucus voter: young and old, rich and poor, male and female, conservative and liberal, caucus virgins and veterans.
The central question about Trump’s Iowa campaign is whether it can convert enough star-struck celebrity watchers into bona fide caucusgoers to win on Monday. Media reports about the strength of the Trump campaign’s ground game are inconclusive. Just because reporters find a lot of people at Trump rallies who don’t seem to know how to caucus doesn’t mean his campaign can’t turn out enough voters to win.
The central question for the Cruz campaign isn’t whether his supporters will show up at their caucus. They’ll caucus, you can bank on it. In the close Quinnipiac Poll, Cruz leads Trump 39 percent to 27 percent with white evangelical/born-again Christians. Cruz leads Trump by 20 points with voters who identify themselves as “very conservative.” Cruz has 50 percent of the tea party supporters, compared to 34 percent for Trump. These folks will show up, the question is whether there are enough of them to withstand Trump mania.
Few voters looking to bounce Rubio, Carson into lead
The Center Lane: Normally, we’d be reserving one of the top stories for whoever comes in third on caucus night. For many in the media, this may only be true if that candidate happens to be Marco Rubio. As the only candidate in the top tier of Iowa polls with both government experience and appreciable mainstream support, Rubio may win one of Iowa’s coveted tickets even if he winds up in fourth place.
That’s bad news for Ben Carson, who has been Rubio’s closest competitor in the last month of polling for the No. 3 spot. Carson is considered to have a good campaign organization in Iowa, maybe better than Rubio’s. He promised reporters Wednesday morning that he would surprise everyone, but he’s been on a downward slide in most polls. Unless Carson can vault over Cruz or Trump, he is in peril of being eclipsed by Rubio or whoever breaks the tape in the center lane.
The Casualty Ward: The third story from the caucuses is which candidates will be on death watch if they don’t perform better than expected in Iowa. Besides Carson, that leaves Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina and Rick Santorum.
Of this group, Huckabee and Santorum are closest to the edge of the cliff. Both are former Iowa caucus winners and both are far back in the pack. If Iowa voters won’t give them another look, there’s nowhere to go but home. Fiorina also is in jeopardy after running hard as a conservative but failing to capitalize on initial voter interest.
Paul, who was once a top-tier candidate in Iowa, has talked up the power of his ground operation in Iowa, as well as his organization on college campuses. If Paul can’t outperform his poll standing in Iowa, he’s on thin ice.
The rest of the field still has hopes of getting a look from New Hampshire voters, who sometimes look at Iowa as a signal of how not to vote. There may be a few crumbs of recognition for Christie or Kasich if either can beat Bush. But of these three, Kasich has campaigned the least in Iowa and has an easier time spinning a loss here.
MORE CAUCUS COVERAGE:
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The Democrats
Three tickets, three candidates. It should be simple math. But there will be only one winner for Democrats in Iowa with not even a participation ribbon for second or third place.
The polls in Iowa show a close race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley needs a miracle to even be competitive and that’s not likely.
Clinton, who lost the caucuses in 2008 to Barack Obama and John Edwards, arguably has more to lose in Iowa than Sanders does. If the best campaign organization that money can buy can’t hold off a Democratic socialist , she will be damaged goods. If she can’t prevail in Iowa and also loses to Sanders in New Hampshire, she could still win the nomination but it will be a long, difficult road.
On the other hand, if Sanders loses Iowa in a close race, he could still win New Hampshire, and there may still be protracted difficult slog to the nomination. If he loses both states, we can say bye-bye to Bernie.
It all comes down to whether Clinton’s organization can withstand the youthful enthusiasm of the Sanders coalition. Clinton has more reliable caucusgoers; Sanders has more passionate ones. Sanders needs a big turnout statewide; Clinton’s campaign needs to be savvier than the competition.
One wild card that could come into play is smart precinct-level strategy in cases where the O’Malley campaign doesn’t have enough supporters to win a delegate. If more experienced Clinton precinct leaders can better manage that caucus math, it could make a difference in a close race.
Ultimately, the race will come down to voters like Donald Todd, who will sit down in a noisy room with their neighbors and face that deadline. Then, we’ll finally know what they want to say. And then, we'll see how the media spin it.