IOWA CAUCUSES

Iowa caucus weather could be balmy

Charly Haley

chaley@dmreg.com

Iowa's first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses may get a helping hand from Mother Nature: Forecasts call for warmer-than-usual temperatures Feb. 1.

But even if temperatures are brutally cold, one political expert predicted, it likely won't deter voters because of the excitement surrounding this year's caucus races.

"If the enthusiasm level and the level of importance is up — which it is this year — I think the weather has less of an effect" on caucus turnout, said Steffen Schmidt, a political science professor at Iowa State University.

The National Weather Service's preliminary forecast shows caucus night has a 50 percent chance of being "warmer than normal" across Iowa. "Normal" temperatures for Feb. 1 in Des Moines are a high of 32 degrees and a low of 15 degrees, said Mindy Beerends, meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Des Moines.

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There's also a 40 percent chance of more precipitation than normal across Iowa that day, Beerends said. This precipitation could be rain or snow, because the temperature could fluctuate above and below freezing, she said.

Beerends emphasized that the weather outlook may change, and she suggested caucusgoers watch the forecasts as caucus day nears for more accurate predictions.

Still, the early predictions of warmer weather are a positive sign that caucus turnout could be strong, Schmidt said. Even if there's rain or snow, he expects the excitement surrounding this year's caucuses will motivate people to turn out.

Recent polls show the Democratic race tightening between Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, motivating supporters of both candidates to turn out in hopes of helping their candidate secure the caucus win and momentum toward the nomination, Schmidt said.

In the Republican race, the large number of contenders (11 have visited Iowa 12 days or more) likely will help boost attendance, Schmidt said.

"People are going to want to go because they think they can make a big difference," he said.

Supporters of the two top-polling contenders, New York businessman Donald Trump and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, are especially likely to caucus, regardless of weather, Schmidt said. Their anti-establishment messages have drawn large, passionate crowds.

"They're going to make every single effort they can," he said of candidates and their supporters. "I can't imagine a more intense environment (for the caucuses) than right now."

While turnout is notoriously difficult to predict, some Republican strategists foresee record turnout to their caucuses, perhaps as high as 140,000 voters, breaking the 2012 mark of 121,000.

Democratic leaders doubt they'll come close to the party's 2008 record of 240,000 voters, when their all-star lineup included Clinton, now-President Barack Obama, current Vice President Joe Biden and 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards.

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In recent election years, weather has had little effect on caucus attendance, said Harry Hillaker, state climatologist.

But storms and bitter cold have been known to wreak havoc on the carefully laid plans of candidates, their staffs and party leaders.

On caucus night in 1972, "Iowa was under siege by a fierce winter storm," according to the definitive history of the caucuses, "The Iowa Precinct Caucuses: The Making of a Media Event," by Drake University professors Hugh Winebrenner and Dennis Goldford. The low temperature hit minus 4 that day in Des Moines.

In about a fourth of Iowa's 99 counties, the caucuses were postponed a day and in some cases two days, the authors wrote.

Hillaker said 1992 was a snowy day for the caucuses, and 2004 was cold, but the weather has been milder in most years.

Sources: Register archives; "The Iowa Precinct Caucuses: The Making of a Media Event," by Hugh Winebrenner and Dennis Goldford; and state climatologist Harry Hillaker