6 things to watch for at GOP faith, family event
The last time GOP presidential hopefuls were gathered around a "Thanksgiving table" facing an Iowa audience of religious conservatives, Michele Bachmann noticed everyone had drinking glasses, but no one had water.
The Minnesota congresswoman, who described herself as a sinner in need of a savior, grabbed the water pitcher and did the pouring for her five rivals in November 2011.
"We did it on purpose," Bob Vander Plaats, president of the Family Leader Christian advocacy group said this week, "to see who would serve."
Four years later, faith and service will again be central themes of the Family Leader's "Presidential Family Forum," set for Friday night in Des Moines.
Seven 2016 candidates will gather in an arrangement reminiscent of Leonardo da Vinci's painting of "The Last Supper," behind a table specially made by West End Architectural Salvage in Des Moines. They'll answer questions meant to encourage them to bare their souls and reveal their true character.
The event will be an opportunity for the 2016 field to inspire and alter the opinions of the base of the Republican party in Iowa, Vander Plaats said. An October Iowa Poll by the Register and Bloomberg Politics showed that 42 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers consider themselves to be evangelical Christians. More than 1,600 people are expected to attend.
Here's what to watch for at an event Vander Plaats casts as "the final exam" before the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses:
1. Who will pour the water this time?
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who met with Vander Plaats more than any other candidate as Jindal aggressively pursued evangelical Christians, dropped out of the race this week.
His seat at the Thanksgiving table will be removed, leaving (in order of their current standing in polling in Iowa) former neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, former tech company CEO Carly Fiorina, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul and former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum.
A handful of 2016'ers won't attend. The most prominent candidates opting out: businessman Donald Trump, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham.
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2. Will Cruz get the Family Leader endorsement?
The conventional wisdom is that the hardcore Texas conservative, the son of an evangelical Christian pastor, is the shoo-in for the nod. But Vander Plaats is working hard to knock down that notion.
"Right now, we are not there," he told The Des Moines Register.
The Family Leader's decision will come between Thanksgiving and Christmas, if board members can reach consensus.
"Last time, even though they reached unanimity around Rick Santorum, it was a process to get there. I tell you, it was not easy. (Former Georgia U.S. Rep.) Newt (Gingrich) probably had the most votes the first vote we took. And then it was (then-Texas Gov. Rick) Perry in there. Anyhow, it ended up being Santorum," Vander Plaats said.
But the Family Leader board itself didn't endorse; it instead cut loose Vander Plaats and Chuck Hurley, the organization's vice president, to do their own. Vander Plaats also used a super PAC to promote the endorsement. He doubts he'll go that route this cycle.
"We did that because we had only two weeks to get the endorsement to stick," he said.
3. Who will best connect with the audience?
The forum is meant to be an oasis of personal stories in the midst of a series of high-pressure debates marked by timers and zingers.
"We're not looking for candidate-to-candidate engagement at all," Vander Plaats said. "The questions are structured to reveal your story and what has threaded your leadership DNA."
Huckabee, a former pastor and television talk show host, has great communication skills, "and he's obviously one of us," Vander Plaats said. Evangelical voters propelled Huckabee to victory in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, when Vander Plaats served as Huckabee's Iowa campaign chairman.
Santorum "is exponentially a better candidate than he was four years ago" and shouldn't be underestimated, he said.
Cruz connects quickly "with his intellect and his debate ability. He has a harder time connecting emotionally," Vander Plaats said.
Rubio is the Roy Hobbs of politics — "he's a natural," he said.
"A lot of our base loves Ben Carson," Vander Plaats said. "They like his outside approach, his bedside demeanor."
This will be the first Family Leader event attended by either Fiorina or Paul, he said.
Of Fiorina, he said: "We're thrilled to have her."
Paul, he said, will be trying to "thread a very difficult needle," staying true to a more libertarian point of view while trying to "mesh evangelical, faith-based components."
4. Absent contenders are still in the running
"Even though we do see this as the final exam, and it doesn't play in people's favor if they miss a final exam, there will still be some grace provided if someone believes a candidate who is not there — whether it's Jeb Bush or Donald Trump or Chris Christie — is the right one that we need to go with," Vander Plaats said.
Vander Plaats said the candidate whose absence most surprises him is Bush. "You know what? I like him. He was governor of Florida. He's a real leader."
Campaign aides said Bush has chaired a cystic fibrosis fundraiser for 20 years, and this year's is Friday.
GOP public opinion researcher Frank Luntz, who during a Family Leader summit in July got Trump to admit he's never in his life asked God for forgiveness, will again be the moderator.
"I think if I do something wrong, I think, I just try and make it right," Trump said at the July event in Ames. "I don't bring God into that picture. I don't."
Trump later blasted Luntz's focus group work as "unfair" and "terrible."
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On Tuesday, Trump telephoned Vander Plaats to say he can't make it Friday night. "He and I have a vey transparent relationship," Vander Plaats told the Register. "I think this is funny, and he laughed at it, so I don't think Mr. Trump would care if I shared it publicly. He said, 'If you can guarantee me your endorsement, I will turn the plane around and get there.' I said, 'Well, you know I can't do that.'"
Some Iowans in the Family Leader network struggle with Trump, skeptical that some of the behavior of the sharp-tongued, thrice-married billionaire should be viewed as Christian. But others are still willing to back him, Vander Plaats said.
"Listen, we have voted for a lot of the guys who say they go to church twice on Sundays and every Wednesday night and carry the King James Bible to Washington, D.C., with them, only to go along and get along," he said.
Trump will be campaigning in South Carolina, and Christie in New Hampshire.
In the October Iowa Poll, Carson far outpaced the field in garnering the first-choice support of self-identified born-again or evangelical Christians, at 33 percent. Trump had 18 percent; Cruz, 13 percent; and Rubio, 9 percent. Everyone else was at 4 percent or less.
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5. Will anyone cry?
Crying on the campaign trail isn't necessarily recommended, but voters like to see a little human emotion on occasion.
At the 2011 event, several candidates shed tears. Gingrich wiped his eyes after recounting a tale of a young boy born with a severe medical condition — and also got the biggest applause line of the night by saying Occupy Wall Street activists should "get a job right after you take a bath."
Retired Georgia businessman Herman Cain was overcome with emotion while recalling how his wife, sitting in the front row that night, stood by him when he was diagnosed with Stage 4 cancer. Cain was dealing at the time with shrinking poll numbers and a barrage of controversy over sexual harassment allegations.
Santorum choked up while talking about the birth of his youngest daughter, Isabella, who has a genetic disorder that's often deadly. In contrast, then-Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul avoided any deep confessions.
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6. National security will likely play a prominent role
The event will take place one week after suicide bombers and terrorist gunmen went on a deadly rampage in Paris, killing 129 people dead and injuring hundreds.
It would be remiss to not bring the topic to the forefront, Vander Plaats said.
About the Presidential Family Forum
WHEN: 6:30 p.m. to 9 p.m. Friday
WHERE: Community Choice Credit Union Community Center, Des Moines
TICKETS: $40 for limited reserved seating; $15 for general admission. They're available for purchase at the door, organizers said.
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Follow coverage on Twitter by The Des Moines Register politics team, including Kathie Obradovich, political columnist, @KObradovich, and Jennifer Jacobs, chief politics reporter, @JenniferJJacobs.
