Iowa business Republicans still sitting on sidelines

Dennis Albaugh wanted to do something to help Jeb Bush, so he hosted a fundraiser featuring the GOP presidential candidate last week at his grand estate in Ankeny, opening up his personal museum containing every Chevrolet convertible built between 1912 and 1975.

Albaugh laughed it off when 200 more guests showed up than he'd expected, parking their cars on the grassy edges of his private golf course.

But when asked if he's ready to pledge commitment to Bush, Albaugh isn't quite ready.

"Right now I'm very much a Jeb supporter," said Albaugh, an agricultural chemical manufacturer and one of Iowa's most successful entrepreneurs. "I'm stopping short of saying an 'endorsement' just because there are so darned many candidates right now."

It's a common refrain among business Republicans in Iowa five months out from the first-in-the-nation presidential vote. Interviews with more than 20 business leaders by The Des Moines Register found that almost all of them remain on the sidelines.

"There's still too much ambiguity," said Mary Andringa, 65, CEO of Vermeer Corp. in Pella.

Establishment Republicans said the reasons for their hesitation are multi-fold. The menu of GOP contenders is much bigger than ever before, with a larger selection of plausible choices. The texture of the 2016 race feels exceptionally chaotic, with no single candidate projecting an ability to hold a clear, sustained lead. They're typically a cautious lot anyway, reluctant to invest in the wrong candidate and risk alienating the eventual winner.

The Iowa Straw Poll used to be a visible goal line toward which campaigns worked, egging Iowans to commit early. But with that seminal mid-August event canceled, the goal posts are further out, and Republicans feel they have more breathing room for their whittling work.

And with 17 possibilities in the 2016 race, Iowa GOP'ers are finding it takes a long time to get familiar with biographies, current stances, past stances and personalities.

"We have to learn who they all are!" said Jeannie Havnen of Clive, whose family owns a Herff Jones class ring franchise.

Many have trimmed their lists to handful

Now that two key rounds of auditions are about done – the first debate and the Iowa State Fair appearances – business Republicans are giving themselves credit for completing some heavy lifting: They've trimmed their lists to a top three or so. But unlike last election cycle, when former business executive Mitt Romney was the consensus establishment choice, Iowa business leaders are splintered.

"Certainly Jeb," said Jeff Lamberti, 52, a business lawyer and member of the Casey's General Stores board of directors. "He's got a great organization, great people, a great history. But I'm hearing lots of positive comments about (Wisconsin Gov. Scott) Walker, and quite a few about (Florida U.S. Sen. Marco) Rubio."

Other names that crop up in business circles: Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former tech company CEO Carly Fiorina.

And some in this crowd – Republicans who like predictability in the stock market, predictability in their business and predictability in their country – are looking at New York real estate mogul Donald Trump.

"I'd say half the people I talk to don't take him seriously, and half are still intrigued," said Seth Moulton, 34, who owns Classic Builders, an Ankeny-based home building company, with his brother Josh Moulton.

Moulton said he ruled out Trump because the most important factor for him is a candidate's substantive policy ideas. He's going with Rubio, who he thinks is better than Bush at articulating a vision for future growth, he said.

As of today, not a dime has been spent in Iowa on behalf of Bush or Walker on television advertising, one of the most powerful forces in influencing voter opinion. Bush is currently in sixth place in the GOP race in Iowa, according to a rolling average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.com. Walker, the frontrunner for the first half of this year, is in third place.

Iowans have already been exposed to TV ads on behalf of Rubio, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, South Carolina U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, former neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.

September is when the real onslaught begins: $9.5 million in TV air time already has been reserved in Iowa for Rubio alone, $6.8 million for Walker, and $1.9 million for Bush so far, ad tracking records show.

Jobs record, plans for economy scrutinized

As business Republicans get to know the candidates – via personal telephone calls, private gatherings at the campsites of some of the Iowa State Fair's biggest benefactors and other events – they're looking for the one with the strongest jobs record, the most detailed approach to improving the economy, and the most exhilarating message, several told the Register.

"There's so many good candidates out there," said Curt Hames, owner of a Cedar Rapids-area manufactured home builder.

Hames developed a keen interest in Walker in 2012, when he personally delivered a check to a fundraiser Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad did for Walker in Dubuque. Hames said he was impressed with the Wisconsin governor's confidence and stories about courage in the face of threats to himself and his family during his anti-labor union fight. A few weeks ago, Walker accepted Hames' invitation to attend a worship service with his family at Antioch Christian Church in Marion.

"He's our selection," concluded Hames, 90, referring to himself and his wife, Norma, 81. "We feel he's the complete package. He's a Christian, he lives the golden rule, he has a nice family. There's no hidden closets."

Hames added: "We have also known the Bush family for years, and respect them, too. Jeb's no stranger to Iowa." Bush campaigned for his father, George H.W. Bush, here in 1979.

Some business conservatives, like John Rapp, 59, owner of Auto-Jet Muffler in Clive, thought early on that Walker was clearly the best choice, but are now widening their search.

"Originally, I really liked Scott Walker," Rapp said. "But I'm waiting to hear more from him. ... I'm just not ready to lock down on any of them yet."

Rapp, who is listening for specific stances on taxes as well as personal qualities like humility, said his current top four list is Walker, Rubio, Fiorina and Cruz. He finds Bush uninspiring, he said.

Tom Bush, an owner and executive with McCarthy-Bush Corp. in Davenport, has landed with Rubio.

"He's young energy, but with an old soul," said Bush, 56, who appreciates that the Florida senator backs up his message about his vision with solutions.

But like every other business Republican interviewed for this article, he said almost all of his colleagues remain undecided.

Personal connections often come into play

Albaugh, who hosted the Polk County GOP fundraiser last week that featured Jeb Bush, said he's written a check to only one presidential candidate this cycle: Bush. Albaugh told the Register he owns a home on Florida's Marco Island and observed Bush from afar as he turned the status quo in state government there upside down as governor from 1999 to 2007.

"Not everyone had that experience. The people in Iowa need to hear how strong he was," said Albaugh, 65, who earned his fortune manufacturing weed-killing chemicals.

Education was Bush's signature issue, he said.

"I watched people move out of Florida because of its poor education system. Jeb turned that around," Albaugh said.

Chris McLinden, 55, president of the Waukee-based staffing company Axis Human Capital Inc., said he narrowed his choices to the two candidates who rang him on his cell phone: Bush and Fiorina.

"That's really sales 101," he said.

McLinden went with Bush – and became the campaign's Dallas County chairman – because the former Florida governor has the campaign infrastructure to go further than the three earliest voting states, he said.

At Albaugh's car barn last week, McLinden circulated through the audience with a guest list. Bush aides marked those committed to caucusing for Bush and those who were leaning.

"A lot of them said they're still assessing the field," McLinden said after the event. "As is my wife."