Paris attacks likely ‘a game changer’ in Democratic race

Squeamishness about Bernie Sanders' foreign policy savvy — and greater confidence in Hillary Clinton’s experience — could play a role in redefining the Democratic presidential race in the wake of the terrorist attacks in Paris, Iowa voters and politics watchers say.

National security may not be the decisive issue for Iowa Democratic caucusgoers, but “it will move people — and those that are moved will support Clinton,” said Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis, whose company, Park Street Strategies, conducted a focus group in Des Moines Friday night.

All 31 undecided Democratic likely caucusgoers in the focus group, conducted just hours after news emerged about the mass violence in Paris, think Sanders is the candidate who has had the stronger message so far.

But nearly all see Clinton winning the Iowa caucuses and nomination.

The group was split evenly as to whom they thought would win tonight’s CBS News/KCCI-TV/Des Moines Register debate, the second Democratic debate in the 2016 presidential race. They consider the third debate participant, Martin O’Malley, to be a non-factor.

PARIS ATTACKS:

Paris native now in Des Moines disgusted by attacks

Ed Fallon in France: 'Shock, sadness' after deadly attacks

Horrifying video shows carnage outside of Paris theater (graphic)

Timeline: A year of terror in France

Full coverage: Paris under siege

The world’s attention shifted to Paris Friday. French President Francois Hollande said at least 127 people died when at least eight attackers launched gun attacks at Paris cafes, detonated suicide bombs near France's national stadium and killed hostages inside a concert hall during a rock show, the Associated Press reported. More than 200 people were injured, dozens critically. The Islamic State claimed responsibility in online statements in Arabic and French.

“The Paris massacre is a game changer for the Iowa caucuses and the 2016 U.S. presidential elections,” Iowa politics watcher Steffen Schmidt, a political science professor at Iowa State University, wrote in a blog post Saturday morning. “(Republican presidential candidate) Rand Paul is finished. So is Bernie Sanders. The priorities have just totally changed.”

Iowa Democratic leaders also think the Paris attacks will play a critical role in the presidential race.

“It’s going to have a great effect on me,” said state Rep. Ako Abdul-Samad, a Des Moines Democrat who has been holding off on backing a presidential candidate until after the second debate.

Abdul-Samad told The Des Moines Register Saturday he wants a president who can “bring the powers that be together ... to not allow any individuals to bully us or make us fearful of traveling.” He said he’ll choose the Democrat he thinks will best deal with terrorism — both internationally and domestically.

Friday night, the 31 rank-and-file caucusgoers at the focus group said they have a strong passion for Sanders, a Vermont U.S. senator, but doubt he’s electable.

“It's his kryptonite,” Kofinis told the Register Saturday in an interview. Kofinis said he isn’t affiliated with any campaign and isn’t committed to or leaning toward any candidate.

Judging from the focus group members, Sanders would be the unanimous nominee if this were a contest based on Sanders’ message about free college tuition, Wall Street reform and social justice issues.

Although the focus group members — 14 women and 17 men — don't feel as strong an emotional connection to Clinton, a former U.S. secretary of state, they think she’s more ready and experienced to be president than Sanders.

O’Malley, a former Maryland governor who has never risen above the single digits in polling, was barely on the radar for focus group members.

“They simply don't know who he is,” Kofinis said.