As Iowa debate nears, Clinton seems inevitable again
It's hard to foresee a result other than the Hillary Clinton juggernaut winning Iowa unless something major blows up in the presidential race, Democratic activists say.
As another pivot point approaches in the form of Saturday's nationally televised debate in Iowa, Clinton has an enviably strong polling position, a money edge, a determined organizing crew, perceived depth on issues and the power of the establishment behind her.
"Right now, the overall Democratic dynamic seems pretty clear, and the momentum is with Hillary," political strategist David Axelrod told The Des Moines Register. "A win in Iowa effectively could augur an early end to the nominating fight."
But runner-up Bernie Sanders' organizational footprint in Iowa is now as large as Clinton's: Both have more than 70 staffers working from 20 offices. And his backers say the national media narrative that he may have peaked will only fuel them to fight harder.
RELATED: Sanders, Clinton battle it out in organizing
"What I hear is that Hillary has the momentum. What I see on the ground is that Bernie has the momentum," said Ray Zirkelbach, a former state legislator from Monticello, who hasn't endorsed but says he's leaning heavily toward Sanders.
Clinton has the establishment, but Sanders has a swath of progressives — "old hippies," the millennials and the "video game generation" — and his magnetism will draw "new people to the game," Zirkelbach said.
Three Democratic candidates will compete in the CBS News/KCCI/Des Moines Register debate at Drake University on Saturday night. Since the Democrats' first debate 3½ weeks ago, the table has been re-set. Severe underdogs Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb have dropped out, and the specter of an extra podium no longer exists now that Joe Biden, the sitting vice president, has opted not to make a last-minute plunge into the race.
The lone severe underdog is Martin O'Malley, who is "still mired in the Land of the Statistically Insignificant," Axelrod said. "Without a miraculous turnaround, his time and money may well run out."
Knocking Clinton out of a nomination win would likely take a bombshell, such as some sort of major new accusation uncovered by the FBI about her use of a private email server while she was secretary of state, Iowa Democrats said.
"I think she'd have to be indicted. It would be something criminal; otherwise, they're going to be able to weather it," said state Sen. Tony Bisignano, a Des Moines Democrat who backed a Biden bid and is now without a favorite candidate. "They have the money and the organization to withstand anything. They're the Clintons."
Others hope for breakthroughs
Iowans who back Sanders, a Vermont U.S. senator, and O'Malley, a former Maryland governor, are holding out hope that a big moment in Saturday's debate will reroute the course of the race for their candidate.
"Something monumental would need to occur at this point," said Grant Woodard, an Iowa Democratic strategist who is unaffiliated with any campaign. "(Clinton) is clearly ascending rapidly."
The Iowa debate will be "the last truly important event for Iowa Democrats this caucus season," Woodard predicted.
"With the calendar being what it is, we are going to soon enter a period where the rank-and-file caucusgoers are about to become more concerned with Thanksgiving and Christmas and begin to tune out until January," he said. "If Sanders or O'Malley is going to significantly change the dynamic of the race, this needs to be the place."
MORE: Iowa caucuses approaching: Shake-ups ahead?
More than half of Democratic likely caucusgoers in early October said they're not locked in on a candidate yet: 42 percent said their mind was made up, while 58 percent said they could still be persuaded to support another candidate, a Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll found.
But more recent polls in Iowa are showing Clinton pulling further ahead of Sanders.
Iowa Democrats say there's a sense Clinton has passed a test, with her calm demeanor during the 11-hour congressional hearing on the Benghazi attack and her show of force at the Jefferson Jackson dinner in Des Moines, chased by the feat of organizing 150 Iowa house parties to celebrate her birthday.
During Clinton's 2008 presidential bid, everything in Hillaryworld was super-sized, with hundreds of aides on payroll. This time, the campaign has more volunteers, and Iowans have been organizing more deeply and for a longer period, insiders said.
"Her campaign is better this cycle," said unaffiliated strategist Jeff Link of Des Moines.
Clinton doing more interaction
A very long summer campaign season for Clinton was capped by an outdoor event on a 75-degree day in November in Iowa, where Clinton displayed sure-footedness in tackling even the most obscure questions posed to her in Q&As sessions, her backers say.
Iowans at the Coralville event last week quizzed Clinton on everything from Islamic terrorists to small rural school consolidation. When one audience member asked about unexploded land mines in Laos, she shared facts, off the top of her head, for four minutes.
"Laos is the most-bombed nation in the history of the world," she said. "More ordnance was dropped on Laos during the Vietnam War by us than was dropped in any other conflict."
MORE: State of the Democratic race in Iowa
Just the fact that Clinton answered 13 audience questions was noteworthy, said undecided voter Ed Fallon, a former Des Moines state legislator who describes himself as a progressive populist.
"That wouldn't have happened a few months ago," Fallon said.
Another change: Clinton has long had the reputation as the stand-offish, impersonable Democrat in the race, but now it's Sanders who comes across as indifferent or rushed, Fallon said.
"Sure, he gets around and has huge crowds, but there's a lot of grumbling that he just doesn't get the importance of taking time to meet and greet, to answer questions one-on-one, and to show that he cares about people in an up-close, personal way," Fallon said. "I hear that from a lot of people."
Still, Fallon said, Sanders excites a broad range of voters beyond the usual Democratic caucusgoer, and polls could easily seesaw to favor Sanders again.
Embracing idea of female president
Another factor powering support for Clinton is the notion of female leadership in the White House — and the idea that Iowa could be the state that not only launched the first black president, but also catapults the first female president into the Oval Office, several Democrats said.
"At events I've covered, the decibel level increases dramatically for Hillary Clinton when she puts gender in play," said Douglas Burns, co-owner and columnist with the Carroll Daily Times Herald newspaper. "Plenty of Iowa women left Clinton for Obama, but it would be hard to betray their break-the-glass-ceiling instincts twice."
Clinton's backers say they aren't certain that she'll win Iowa, but they're hopeful.
"We are working our tails off every day fighting for every vote," said Jerry Crawford, a Des Moines lawyer and Democratic fundraiser who has endorsed Clinton. "We may be pleased with the current state of the race, but we are the furthest thing from over-confident."
Debates are more impromptu and conversational than podium speeches, a high-pressure setting where Clinton shines, her backers said.
"Nothing else is as likely to effect change as the debates," Crawford said.
Woodard said Clinton's biggest challenge in Iowa in coming weeks could be keeping her people energized and fighting apathy of supporters who aren't convinced their presence will be necessary on the night of the caucuses.
Their absence could "hand a gift to other campaigns," he said, "particularly the Sanders camp."
State of the Democratic presidential race in Iowa
About the debate
When: 8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14
Main host: CBS News
Partners: CBS affiliate KCCI-TV, The Des Moines Register, Twitter, Drake University, the Iowa Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee
Debate site: Sheslow Auditorium, Drake University
Moderators: Lead moderator is John Dickerson of CBS News, anchor of “Face the Nation.” Also moderating are Nancy Cordes, congressional correspondent, CBS News; Kevin Cooney, anchor, KCCI-TV; and Kathie Obradovich, columnist, The Des Moines Register.
Tickets: The Iowa Democratic Party has a very limited number of tickets available; those interested in attending should email info@iowademocrats.org.
Drake's hectic week
The Drake University campus will be busier than usual this week in the run-up to the Democratic presidential debate on Saturday at Sheslow Auditorium. Here’s a quick look at the highlights:
Tuesday: National Public Radio’s Michel Martin plans to host a live storytelling event focused around myths and facts of youth voting. She and a group of young adults plan to discuss how the youth vote helped elect President Barack Obama and what factors might be different this time around. Few tickets remain for the free event at 7 p.m. at Drake’s Olmsted Center.
Wednesday: Joseph Mussomeli plans to discuss “Foreign Policy on the Campaign Trail: Tough Talk is Easy (and Essential).” He’ll draw on his experience as a former U.S. ambassador to Slovenia at the free event at 7 p.m. in Meredith Hall.
Thursday: A handful of policy and media leaders plan to gather throughout the day for “Digital Democracy: The Yahoo Conference on Technology and Politics.” The guest list for the event at Olmsted Hall includes Yahoo News’ chief investigative correspondent Michael Isikoff and Yahoo vice president David Pogue, a former tech writer for the New York Times.
Saturday: Forty high school students from across the Midwest have been invited to tour Drake’s campus and meet with politics faculty and members of the media.
The university’s Student Senate is organizing a pancake breakfast for students, campaign staffers and the media from 9 a.m. to noon, as well as a presidential straw poll throughout the day.
The debate, at Sheslow Auditorium, will be aired nationally on CBS.
Sunday, Nov. 15: CBS News’ “Face the Nation” will air live from campus on CBS at 9:30 a.m.
Find all the details at www.drake.edu.
Watch party
ONE and “Give a Damn, Des Moines” are hosting a debate watch party on Saturday night.
All are welcome to “Watch the Damn Debate” at the Des Moines Social Club. The event will feature free snacks, drinks and beer from Firetrucker Brewery in Ankeny. The party starts at 6:30 p.m., and the debate runs from 8-10 p.m.
The watch party takes place in the Culinary Room on the Social Club's second floor.
“Give a Damn, Des Moines” is a partnership between the Des Moines Register and Social Club aimed at increasing civic engagement, especially among younger voters.
ONE Vote 2016 is a nonpartisan project of ONE Action, a campaign against extreme poverty and preventable disease.
Live coverage
What’s the buzz on social?
During Saturday's debate, The Des Moines Register will offer readers the ultimate second-screen experience with a curated collection of reaction tweets, up-to-the-second coverage from our staff and a feed of our latest stories, photos and videos. We’ll cut through the noise. Follow along during the debate, starting 8 p.m. Saturday, at DesMoinesRegister.com/DemDebate.
Plus check in this week for previews, examination of key issues, photos and videos.
You can also follow coverage on Twitter at @DMRcaucus and @DMRegister. Look for the official hashtag #DemDebate.
Coming Monday
An interview with the main moderator, John Dickerson of CBS News.