Flu hospitalizations are dropping sharply in Iowa

We're not suggesting folks put the Kleenex and Tylenol away just yet, but it looks like Iowa's brutal flu season might finally be waning.

Influenza was back in the spotlight this week, when a bout caused Gov. Terry Branstad to collapse during a speech Monday morning. Branstad joined hundreds of other Iowans to be hospitalized for the flu in the past two months.

But overall, the number hospitalized for the flu has dropped by more than two-thirds since late December, according to the latest report from the Iowa Department of Public Health.

The epidemic spiked in the week ending Jan. 3, when 182 flu victims were admitted at a network of Iowa hospitals the department monitors. That was the highest weekly level in at least three years. But just 50 Iowa flu hospitalizations were recorded in the week ending Jan. 17, the most recent period for which such statistics have been collected.

Dr. Patricia Quinlisk, the health department's medical director, said there probably were a few more cases last week than the latest report indicated, because a major hospital had technical trouble sending in its figures. Even so, she said, there clearly have been fewer people becoming severely ill from flu lately. "But I would not be comfortable declaring victory yet," she added.

Quinlisk said the epidemic could rekindle, as schoolchildren who returned from winter vacation pass viruses around and take them home to their families. She also noted that Iowa sometimes sees a second, smaller flu spike late in the season, as a different virus strain runs through the population. So she says people should keep washing their hands, obtaining a flu shot if they haven't already, and staying home if they're sick.

The dominant flu bug so far this winter has been the H3N2 virus, an A strain that tends to cause severe illness. That strain has been particularly troublesome this season, because it shifted its genes in a way that made it a poor match for this year's version of flu shots.

Most people can recover well at home, with rest, fluids and over-the-counter medications. But the flu can be deadly, especially for young children, the elderly and people with chronic health problems.

Dr. Gregory Schmunk, Polk County's medical examiner, said this week that he's seen 17 death certificates listing flu as a contributing cause of death this winter, up from three in all of last season. Three of this winter's Polk County flu deaths have been children, he said.

There is reason to hope the worst is past, however. Both of Des Moines' main hospital systems have seen sharp declines in flu patients.

Carrie O'Brien, a nurse epidemiologist for UnityPoint Health-Des Moines, said the four hospitals in her system admitted just four people as inpatients for flu complications last week. That compares with 44 the week after Christmas.

O'Brien also said just 11 outpatients at her hospitals' emergency departments tested positive for flu last week, compared to 62 during the third week of December.

O'Brien said that throughout the season, elderly people have been hit the hardest.

Dr. Daniel Gervich, an infectious disease specialist for Des Moines' Mercy system, said 35 flu patients were admitted to his company's two hospitals during the week ending Dec. 20. After holding steady for two more weeks, the number began dropping steeply, and fell to just six last week. The number of Mercy outpatients testing positive for flu peaked at 93 in the week ending Dec. 27, and fell to 31 by last week.

Gervich said the most recent number was the lowest weekly total since mid-November.

Like Quinlisk and O'Brien, Gervich said there could be another uptick in flu cases before the season's through. But, he said, "I think the probability is pretty fair that this will continue to taper on down."

Quinlisk said the recent warm weather could help quell the epidemic, because people are spending less time together indoors and because flu viruses seem to be most infectious during cold snaps. But she said she's still hearing daily reports of flu outbreaks in nursing homes and schools.

The Des Moines school district, whose 32,000 students make it Iowa's largest, has seen 46,011 absences since October, spokeswoman Amanda Lewis said. That's a relatively large number, she said. But it's about 12 percent lower than the rate from two winters ago, the last time the flu really socked Iowa.