Iowa Poll: Trump's ego? It's big. But he's also change agent
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Iowa's likely Republican caucusgoers can agree on one thing about this field of 15 presidential candidates: Donald Trump has a huuuuuge ego.
Better than three-quarters of respondents in the latest Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll say Trump is the most ego-driven candidate in the race.
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, meanwhile, is the most electable, the most presidential, the most pragmatic and the most trustworthy with his finger on the nuclear button — all characteristics befitting a candidate now leading the GOP horse race in Iowa.
But the news isn’t all bad for Trump, who fell to second in two polls of likely caucus attendees last week. The real estate mogul is still seen as the party’s best hope for bringing about real change, the Iowa Poll shows, and that may be the most important qualification for a Republican candidate in this period of political frustration and disaffection.
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Among likely Democratic caucusgoers, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the clear choice on all these characteristics — in some cases by wide margins.
The GOP results underscore voters’ desire for a political outsider and help explain Carson’s surge to the top spot in the poll, at 28 percent. But Iowa Poll pollster J. Ann Selzer said the numbers also provide comfort to Trump, who led the field for months but dropped to second in polling released last week, at 19 percent.
“It’s crystal clear that a majority of Republicans think the bigger risk is to keep electing insiders who will deliver the same results,” Selzer said. “Trump’s position on this goes a ways toward balancing Carson’s position on the other elements.”
Poll respondent Dorothy Vos called Carson her first choice but stressed that she could still be persuaded to support someone else. While she appreciates what she views as Carson’s honesty and believes he could heal racial divisions in the country, she believes Trump is the most credible change agent.
“He doesn’t answer to any special-interest groups,” she said. “And because he’s not being bought and paid for, I think he probably can make some changes.”
(Vos, a retiree from Oskaloosa, also responded to an Iowa Poll conducted last August. Back then, she said Carly Fiorina was her top choice, followed by Carson.)
Roughly a quarter of respondents call Carson the most electable, the most presidential and the most trusted with the country’s nuclear weapons. And 17 percent believe he’s the most pragmatic.
“He seems to be an honest man. He’s an intelligent guy, and I like his backstory a little bit, coming from where he came from, being a neurosurgeon, all those things,” said poll respondent Richard Berrier, a retail department manager from North English. “I just like the way he handles himself.”
Carson is Berrier’s top choice in the Republican field — and the candidate he sees as the most presidential, pragmatic and able to force real change.
The Iowa Poll of 401 likely Republican and 402 likely Democratic caucusgoers was taken Oct. 16-19 by Selzer & Co. Each of the samples has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
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A third of all likely GOP caucusgoers say Trump is best able to bring about real change, and he rates even higher among first-time caucusgoers (49 percent) and independents (40 percent). He places second on pragmatism, electability and nuclear trustworthiness.
Alongside those positives, though, the poll also reveals potential drawbacks for Trump’s candidacy: that 78 percent agreement on the size of his ego, and the 24 percent plurality who say he’s in over his head.
“A lot of times he talks about himself, and I think that’s sickening after a while,” said poll respondent Carlene Lemon, 74, of Keokuk. “That bothers me. I don’t care for that.”
Lemon said she’s still evaluating the field but leaning toward supporting Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.
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The poll contains some promise for Cruz and fellow first-term U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, who represents Florida. Likely caucusgoers rate Rubio third on electability and tied for third — with Cruz — on appearing presidential.
Cruz is the first choice for 10 percent of poll respondents, good for third in the field, while Rubio is 1 percentage point back at 9 percent.
And although former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is tied for fifth in the horse race with just 5 percent support, 18 percent of respondents see him as the most presidential, good for second on that characteristic. Pluralities of self-identified moderates and first-time caucusgoers call him the most presidential, as do 20 percent of Trump supporters.
Among likely Democratic caucus attendees, Clinton is far and away the leading candidate on every positive measure tested in the poll.
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Clinton leads rivals on positive characteristics
Clinton is seen by likely Democratic caucusgoers as the most electable, the most presidential, the most pragmatic, the most trusted in nuclear matters and the best able to bring about real change. She also leads in the perception as most ego-driven.
Those numbers back up her No. 1 position in the Democratic horse race, where 48 percent of respondents call Clinton their top choice.
She rates highest on the characteristics of most electable (57 percent, including 69 percent of respondents age 55 and over), and most presidential (52 percent). The poll includes Vice President Joe Biden, who lagged well behind Clinton on electability and presidential bearing but rated higher than Clinton’s closest competitor, Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Biden announced he would not run for president on Wednesday, after polling concluded.
Sanders — who trails Clinton by 7 percentage points in the latest Iowa Poll horse race — is far behind her on most of the characteristics tested. He came closest on the question about candidates’ ability to bring about real change: 41 percent say Clinton is the top change agent in the field, against 37 percent who say it’s Sanders.
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Even among Sanders’ supporters, Clinton is seen as the most electable Democrat in the race.
Poll respondent Garret Lorensen said he’s backing Sanders but recognizes Clinton as the most electable and the best able to bring about change. Clinton is more willing to court the donors necessary to get elected, he said, and more willing to engage in the compromises necessary to make changes once in office.
“I don’t necessarily agree with Hillary Clinton, but I think she would be more likely to actually change things, whether it’s for good or bad,” Lorensen said.
For Lorensen, a 28-year-old salesman from Vinton, it’s more important to support the candidate who reflects his values than the candidate who’s more likely to win.
“My voting record is more important than the actual outcome of the election,” he said.
A 23 percent plurality said Lincoln Chafee, the former Rhode Island senator, was the Democratic candidate most in over his head. On Friday, Chafee dropped out of the race.
About the poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted October 16-19 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 401 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 402 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 2,771 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list.
Questions based on the subsamples of 402 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 401 likely Republican caucus attendees each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.