Who will compete in the Iowa Straw Poll?

The aim for GOP presidential candidates in Iowa is to score well in the Iowa caucuses, which will take place in precincts across the state Feb. 1.

The Iowa Straw Poll is more of a risk-reward analysis.

Who competes in this year's event, scheduled for Aug. 8 in Boone, is about gamesmanship. All it will take is for one candidate to jump in who's expected to stay out, or vice versa, to change the dynamics. That's why some candidates will wait as long as possible to reveal their plans, GOP strategists told The Des Moines Register on Thursday.

Here's a mash-up of predictions from interviews with 16 insiders:

Best bets: Retired surgeon Ben Carson, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. Watch for them to try to make an early stand in the straw poll, GOP strategists said. Those three will likely be there unless everyone else decides to stay out. But to play to win could bankrupt them — and that could mean the end of the line if they come up short.

Likely abstainers: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Bush's rivals will try to raise expectations for him, arguing he has a recipe for a strong showing because he hired top strategists and should benefit from a long-lasting Bush network in Iowa. After all, Bush's brother, George, won the straw poll in 1999, insiders noted. But polling shows both Christie and Bush have shaky favorability ratings with the conservative activists who will likely dominate this event. In a Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll from late January, 54 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers rated Christie as mostly or very unfavorable, and 43 percent rated Bush that way.

Biggest gamble: Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. A win in the straw poll means Walker either cruises through the caucuses like George W. Bush or he becomes another Michele Bachmann, who sees the ground shift underfoot weeks later. A poor showing could put Walker in a downward spiral until Feb 1. The case for jumping in: Walker is at the top of the polls in Iowa right now, and if he continues to enjoy that kind of momentum, it might be difficult to argue that a Midwestern governor with evangelical conservative credentials who is a front-runner can just skip it. Walker's rivals will argue that he'll look weak if he doesn't play — but if he plays and doesn't win, he looks weak.

Grass-roots favorites: Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul and South Carolina U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham. If Paul's got his father's past-presidential network down, he could win outright if he wanted to, and upend the apple cart, strategists said. Graham has no organizational foundation in Iowa, but could pull off a surprise showing solely by bashing President Barack Obama's foreign policy decisions, insiders said.

Middlemen: Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry. If either enters, it would likely be framed as an organizational tool for the caucuses, not a mission to spend every cent in the bank and win outright. Rubio has yet to engage much in Iowa, while Perry has done intense leg work with a heavy Iowa schedule. If they can carve out realistic expectations, and beat the current polling, they could emerge in good shape, strategists said.

Wild cards: One of the most fascinating aspects will be to see whether former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania participate, Republican insiders said. Each could skip it, arguing they have nothing to prove. Huckabee won in 2008. Santorum won the caucuses in 2012. If they were to compete and don't hold their own in the top three, it could prompt a stench of death, GOP operatives said.

Also-rans: Both retired business executive Carly Fiorina and current business executive Donald Trump could easily leap into the mix and see how far they can get, Iowa Republicans said.