MONEY

Bird flu: Are we prepared for its return?

Christopher Doering, and Donnelle Eller
DesMoines
Sarah Layton, a production associate at Harrisvaccines, performs cell cultures on an Avian Flu vaccine on Thursday, Oct. 22, 2015, in Ames, Iowa.

The last time bird flu swept through the United States a few months ago, it destroyed nearly 50 million farm birds, wiping out about half of Iowa’s egg-laying industry and a fifth of Minnesota’s turkey production.

With fall temperatures dropping and millions of migrating waterfowl potentially carrying the disease as they fly overhead, U.S. poultry producers are bracing for a return of the lethal virus that already has cost the U.S. economy $3.3 billion, according to government estimates.

“A lot of people are nervous, especially those who have had the virus. … With every flock that flies overhead, they wonder, ‘Will it hit me again?’” said Gretta Irwin, executive director of the Iowa Turkey Federation.

This time, however, state, federal and industry leaders vow they’re better prepared, armed with tougher defenses and poised for a quicker response.

“I think we have taken the lessons learned from the last occurrence, and we are implementing those and are ready to go," said John Clifford, the Agriculture Department's chief veterinary officer.

The stakes are high.

While no humans have been infected by the virus, last spring's outbreak decimated large poultry operations in Iowa, Minnesota and 13 other states, sending prices for eggs, turkeys and other products soaring on grocery store shelves. Hundreds of Midwest poultry farms hit by the virus temporarily shuttered their doors and laid off most of their employees.

Officials insist the U.S. food supply remains safe, but the outbreak alone cost the USDA $1 billion in cleanup and other costs, as well as indemnity payments to farmers to help them cover their losses.

Iowa producers, who supply more eggs than any other state, alone lost almost 33 million birds, including about 31 million laying hens and pullets, or young hens, and 1.1 million turkeys.

Vaccines are stored at -80 degrees Celsius at Harrisvaccines on Thursday, Oct. 22, 2015, in Ames, Iowa.

'Operating-room environment'

Clifford said government and industry leaders have learned from what became the nation’s largest animal epidemic last spring.

The rapid spread of the avian influenza virus sometimes overwhelmed officials, who struggled to curtail the disease.

Some farmers waited several days to euthanize sick birds, and once they were dead, the animals piled up in veritable mountains of carcasses, attracting flies and creating a stench.

"We’re definitely prepared for the worst and hoping for the best,” Clifford said. “That doesn’t mean we won’t have some cases, but hopefully we can prevent what we saw this last year.”

Iowa producers are pushing biosecurity efforts, too, even though few of those hit still don't fully understand how their operations became infected, industry leaders said.

Spirit Lake-based Rembrandt Foods, the nation’s third-largest egg producer, will fire noise cannons to keep wild ducks and geese from ponds near their facilities.

FULL COVERAGE ON: Bird flu

Bird flu Q&A: Are we prepared?

Gravel parking lots and company roads will be paved to reduce the dust that can carry the disease. Fences now encircle every operation.

Already workers at the company are required to shower before entering and leaving Rembrandt facilities, with their work clothing provided each day.

“We’ve almost created an operating-room environment,” said Dave Rettig, president of the company that lost nearly 8 million laying hens at facilities in Rembrandt and Renville, Minn.

Other Iowa operations also are adding showers for workers, and are looking to build enclosed wash bays to better disinfect cars and trucks that could carry disease on their tires, said Randy Olson, executive director of the Iowa Poultry Association.

Even though it’s a large investment, poultry farmers are considering every possible solution, he said, given the extent of their losses.

“They have experienced the worst time financially and emotionally that they’re ever likely to,” Olson said.

Sarah Layton, a production associate at Harrisvaccines, performs cell cultures on an Avian Flu vaccine on Thursday, Oct. 22, 2015, in Ames, Iowa.

The 24-hour solution

In recent months, USDA has worked closely with states to ensure birds at infected operations are quickly destroyed, a problem that plagued Iowa earlier this year.

Bill Northey, Iowa’s agriculture secretary, said testing at facilities that are believed to be infected likely will be streamlined. USDA expects to depopulate operations within 24 hours after the virus is detected, a move officials believe will dramatically reduce the disease’s spread.

Birds are typically euthanized with carbon dioxide or a foam. USDA also will consider shutting off ventilation systems at infected poultry barns to suffocate the flocks if other methods cannot be completed within a day.

Northey said the state has purchased two foam machines to euthanize turkeys. And Iowa and neighboring states have agreed to share equipment if an outbreak occurs. Quickly containing the virus, he said, could prevent the virus from spreading across state lines.

Bird flu Q&A: Are we prepared?

Disposal of dead birds will be kept as close to poultry operations as possible, with carcasses potentially composted or buried on site, Northey said.

Last spring, large incinerators were set up to eliminate stockpiled birds after USDA and state officials struggled to find landfills that would accept them. In some cases, birds were hauled to a landfill about 200 miles away from the outbreak.

“We still need all the options, but certainly closest-to-home is going to be least expensive and the safest,” Northey said.

USDA is hiring hundreds of veterinarians and other temporary workers to help respond to an outbreak, and it’s stockpiling an arsenal of 500 million flu vaccine doses as a potential tool to prevent illnesses in birds and slow the spread of the disease.

Sampling wild fowl

To detect a return of the virus sooner, USDA and state officials will conduct 41,000 samples of wild fowl throughout the country through next March. In the Mississippi flyway, which includes Iowa, 10,575 are targeted to be tested.

Dale Garner, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources wildlife bureau chief, said the state began testing waterfowl for avian influenza this summer. Altogether, nearly 500 birds will undergo testing through January.

Most of the samples are from live birds, but the state also will test some ducks hunters have harvested.

In Iowa and the nation, no positive tests have been found so far, Clifford said. But the fall migration has only recently begun as temperatures have started to cool.

Most wild birds are still waiting to make the annual autumn journey.

Clifford said if the virus has not come back by early January, “we probably should be in pretty good shape” before attention turns to next spring.

Stocking up vaccines

Joel Harris, a vice president at Harrisvaccines, said the Ames company has added a second shift to help pump out the first 25 million doses of avian influenza vaccines over by Dec. 1. It will produce 48 million doses under the company’s $6 million, two-year contract with USDA.

The agency said despite stockpiling the vaccine, the department has not decided whether to use it, but they want to have it ready as an option.

Harris said the vaccine is 93 percent to 95 percent effective at protecting birds.

“No vaccine is 100 percent in the field,” he said. “Our vaccine is not a silver bullet."

There are potential consequences to using the vaccine.

Iowa's Harrisvaccines gets bird flu vaccine order from USDA

Broiler chicken producers who depend on trade have expressed concern that some trading partners could ban U.S. poultry imports. Egg and turkey producers, who are less dependent on exports, have been more open to the vaccine.

“Vaccines are not widely accepted worldwide, and if you vaccine like that basically your trading partners are going to believe that you’re not able to control the disease,” Clifford said. “While I understand the desire of people wanting to do it, the ramifications are quite severe.”

Rettig, the Rembrandt president, believes the high costs to the egg-laying and turkey industries — and to taxpayers, both in indemnity payments and higher consumer prices — far outweigh potential export losses.

“I certainly understand the broiler industry’s concerns, but that potential cost pales in comparison to the billion dollars the federal government has already spent on the disease,” he said.

Importing from Europe

Though the virus has dissipated, its effect on egg prices remains for the nation's grocery shoppers.

Rick Brown, a senior vice president with commodity market research firm Urner Barry, said egg prices have fallen in recent week with imports from Europe and Mexico.

In addition, an estimated 5 million of the 34 million egg-laying hens lost from infected facilities this spring have been restocked, including an estimated 1.5 million in Iowa.

Rembrandt is importing eggs from roughly 10 countries — including France, Spain, the Netherlands, Latvia and Italy — to help meet its customers’ needs, Rettig said. That has helped bring back many of the 230 workers laid off by the company.

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“The fact is, we’ll be importing eggs for a while,” he said.

Rembrandt is restocking its infected barns — as are most Iowa producers — but it will take at least another year before the effort is completed, Rettig said.

Consumer costs linger

While prices have plunged to $1.62 for a dozen large eggs in the Midwest from a high of $2.88 in August, they still remain 21 percent higher than a year ago, according to Urner Barry.

Many egg users who have cut back consumption of liquefied, dried or frozen eggs in favor of other substitutes such as whey or oil have been hesitant to return.

“They are going to stick with what they have for a time, until they feel comfortable that procedures have taken the necessary steps to improve their biosecurity and there will not be additional outbreaks," Brown said. "That has yet to be seen.”

Dermot Hayes, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University, said he expects the poultry industry to ramp up within a year.

“I think eggs at a normal price are such an incredibly good value, I would expect those customers to come back,” he said.

The greatest threat to consumers, Hayes said, is the broiler industry’s exposure to bird flu. He still sees weaker biosecurity at those facilities, mostly in the southeastern United States that was untouched by bird flu last spring.

At the Drake Diner in Des Moines, co-owner Shannon Vilmain said her cost for eggs and egg products have come down by about $350 a week from their peak earlier this summer. But she fears the impact of bird flu on her business may not be over yet — even if the virus doesn’t return this fall.

One of her suppliers said they are expecting a turkey shortage in the next month, with another warning of similar challenges early next year.

Already, Vilmain said turkey prices have increased $1.40 a pound from August, and she’s bracing for them to rise even more.

“That's kind of difficult with Thanksgiving coming up,” Vilmain said. “If it’s not one thing, it’s another.”

Tyson raises biosecurity bar

Worth Sparkman, a spokesman with Tyson Foods, said while the company is optimistic bird flu will not return, it has been “preparing for this possibility” since spring.

Tyson, the largest U.S. poultry producer, said it has put in place heightened biosecurity measures including limiting nonessential visitors to contract farms and providing extra training for employees who come in contact with birds to protect against the spread of the disease.

Tyson, which has not reported bird flu at its chicken operations, said it tests all Tyson-owned birds for the virus before they leave the farm and knows the results before the animals are processed.