Crowds noncommittal in waning days of Bush campaign
CEDAR FALLS, Ia. – George H.W. Bush famously started his first Iowa caucus campaign as an asterisk in the polls before going on to win the 1980 contest.
In 2016, his son appears poised to do the opposite.
Jeb Bush said at the outset of this campaign that he intended to win Iowa, but the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll places him tied for seventh in the 11-candidate field with support from 2 percent of likely caucusgoers.
That is, asterisk territory.
Meeting with reporters in Dubuque on Saturday night, Bush brushed off questions about his expectations for caucus night and his viability going forward in the race.
"You know what, if you’re going to run for president and you don’t expect to win, why do you do it?" Bush said. "Of course I expect to win."
"I think we’re in good shape," he went on, "and I’m looking forward to going to New Hampshire and South Carolina with a message that a person with a proven record that has detailed plans that can lead this country is what we need to defeat Hillary Clinton."
Saturday was the second day of a three-day, 11-stop tour for Bush, taking him across the state’s northern tier from Okoboji to Dubuque. Still, although that represents Bush’s most frenzied road trip of the campaign season, it’s a substantially lighter schedule than other candidates are pursuing in this final weekend — and it’ll barely last into caucus day.
Bush is scheduled to hold one midday event at a media-hub hotel in downtown Des Moines on Monday before jetting to New Hampshire, where he’ll hold a town hall meeting just as the caucuses here are coming to order.
Despite more than $100 million in financial support and an Iowa political network dating back to his father’s campaigns of the 1980s, Bush never caught on here after declaring his candidacy.
“It's my intention to win, period,” Bush said during a press conference in Iowa City on May 16. “I'm a competitive person. My hope is to win any place where I'm competing.”
Since then, however, his polling numbers have steadily declined as Scott Walker, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and, especially, Donald Trump took turns leading the polls. In recent days, rival Marco Rubio has been seen as on the rise.
Even among the self-selected sample of would-be caucusgoers who turned out for Bush’s final events of this caucus season, many were largely noncommittal about supporting him.
Larry Schroeder, a retiree who attended Bush’s noon-hour event in Clear Lake on Saturday, said he was impressed but remained “up in the air” on who to support. Clear Lake Mayor Nelson Crabb offered a similar view. He attended the Bush event but said he planned to stop by a Chris Christie even later that evening.
Deb Manske, a retired schoolteacher from Algona who attended the Clear Lake event, offered a string of superlatives for Bush, variously calling him serious, genuine, caring, honest and intelligent.
“He wants to help people. That’s what you want in a president,” Manske said.
But for all that, she wasn’t ready to commit.
“I’m still kind of undecided,” she said. “I’m definitely glad I came to see him and hear what he had to say because he did impress me.”
ABOUT THE EVENT
SETTING: A conference center meeting room in Okoboji, a VFW post in Clear Lake, an Eagles Club in Cedar Falls (where he was joined by U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley) and the barroom of an American Legion post in Dubuque.
CROWD: Bush consistently drew crowds of 150 or 200 at each of the four events.
REACTION: Crowds were polite and receptive to Bush’s message, if not especially committed. In Cedar Falls, the crowd responded loudly and emotionally to Army Sgt. Leroy Petry, who told the story of the mission in Afghanistan for which he earned the Medal of Honor.
WHAT’S NEXT: This was the second day of Bush’s final tour through Iowa. On Sunday, he’ll visit Cedar Rapids, Clinton and Davenport. For details, go to DesMoinesRegister.com/candidatetracker.