IOWA CAUCUSES

Donald Trump reclaims lead in latest Iowa Poll

Jennifer Jacobs

jejacobs@dmreg.com

Donald Trump has muscled ahead in Iowa, regaining his lead on the brink of the first votes being cast in the 2016 presidential race.

Trump stands at 28 percent, while rival Ted Cruz has slid to 23 percent. But there’s still a strong case for Cruz in this race — he’s more popular and respected than Trump, the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows.

“The drill-down shows, if anything, stronger alignment with Cruz than Trump, except for the horse race,” said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Iowa Poll.

Mainstream Republicans, faced with seeing governors Jeb Bush and Chris Christie stalling and the grim reality looming of a victory by a smash-mouth game show host or an ultra-conservative obstructionist, have gravitated toward Marco Rubio. The young-looking, first-term U.S. senator from Florida is now at 15 percent. Still, Trump gets more of their support.

“Donald Trump could win Iowa,” said Stuart Stevens, a Maryland-based GOP strategist who has worked on five presidential campaigns but is neutral this election cycle. “But he has little room for error. He is almost no one's second choice.”

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Rubio and Cruz, in contrast, are popular backup selections.

Another sign of a possible cliffhanger Monday night: Although just 9 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers haven't yet made a choice, they're part of the 45 percent who could be persuaded to change their minds in the final hours before the nation fires the starting gun on 2016 presidential voting at 7 p.m. in Iowa.

Trump excels with voters who have never participated in the caucuses. But the poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, detects no flood of fresh voters.

A victory for Trump would give him a huge head start toward the nomination, paving the way for him to achieve the unprecedented feat of winning both the first caucus voting in Iowa and the first primary in New Hampshire. A second-place finish for Cruz could make his path to the nomination difficult. He was expected to dominate in Iowa, where fellow religious conservatives make up a bigger bloc than in many other states.

The rest of the GOP field is struggling, the poll shows.

Ben Carson has dropped to 10 percent, remaining in double digits but with his lowest support since May.

Rand Paul remains at 5 percent.

Christie is still at 3 percent.

With 2 percent each: Bush, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich and Rick Santorum.

An irreverent New York real estate mogul and reality TV icon, Trump hasn’t been a front-runner in an Iowa Poll since August, when he had 23 percent support. Carson, a mild-mannered retired brain surgeon and inspirational book author, snatched the crown from Trump in October with 28 percent, but has since collapsed to fourth place.

Cruz, a Texas U.S. senator and anti-Washington crusader, streaked to the poll's zenith with 31 percent in December, but his 10-point edge over Trump eroded as his presidential rivals attacked him as a shape-shifter on issues, a faux Christian and an illegitimate American citizen. And on Jan. 19, Iowa’s powerful establishment Republican governor condemned him as a danger to the state’s agriculture economy.

After months of under-performing in a state where he is perceived as palatable to both establishment and anti-establishment voters, Rubio is up 3 percentage points since early January. But there's no indication of a surge: His support declined during the four days of polling.

The new Iowa Poll of 602 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 26-29 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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Here are some highlights:

1. Nothing in this poll forecasts a groundswell of new people.

Just 40 percent of the likely GOP electorate is made up of first-time caucusgoers, which is on par with the 38 percent of first-time caucusgoers reflected in 2012 entrance polling.

In 2008, the year Democrats ignited passions outside a tight circle of party activists, entrance polling showed 57 percent of Democrats hadn't caucused before.

Trump leads both with Iowans who say they’ll definitely vote and those who will probably vote. “Turnout seems not to affect him," Selzer said. "Either way, he seems on solid ground.”

Among first-time caucusgoers, Trump has a 16-point lead. But the universe of experienced caucusgoers is bigger, where Cruz has a 3-point lead.

2. If evangelicals turn out with the same force as in 2012, the race will be closer.

This poll shows 47 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers identify themselves as evangelical or born-again Christians. Entrance polling four years ago measured 57 percent.

When Selzer rejiggered the new Iowa Poll results to reflect a hypothetical 60 percent evangelical turnout, the race tightens: Trump gets 26 percent of their support, and Cruz gets 25 percent.

3. Is Trump’s lead so solid in Iowa that, as he put it, he could just about shoot somebody and get away with it?

He's up 6 percentage points since the early-January Iowa Poll.

His supporters are hardened in their bunkers: 71 percent say their minds are made up, 10 points higher than for Cruz supporters.

Another number that jumps off the page in an election where many Republican voters cite national security as their top issues: 50 percent of likely caucusgoers say Trump would be most feared by enemies of the United States. Twenty-one percent name Cruz. Rubio is viewed as an amateur in this area, with only 5 percent.

Trump’s voters have said they want him to stick it to The Man — and he’s seen as a better change agent than Cruz and a stronger leader.

4. There are niggling worries about Trump.

He’s not the most knowledgeable or most experienced in the race, likely caucusgoers say.

That’s Cruz.

Trump isn’t the most respected by leaders of countries friendly to the United States.

That’s Cruz.

What dents Trump most: his comfort with use of eminent domain and past statements that he favors abortion rights.

It bothers 60 percent of likely caucusgoers that Trump supports using government powers to seize property. It bothers 56 percent that he supported abortion rights in the past and would not have banned late-term abortions.

Questions about his familiarity with the Bible troubles 36 percent, and his bankruptcy filings for four businesses bugs 34 percent.

Negatives about Trump show up in his favorability rating: He’s above water by only his famous hair-do, with 50 percent who view him positively and 47 percent who think negatively about him.

“I don't think that bodes well for him moving ahead. Ultimately, a nominee must move to unite the party as other candidates drop out,” Stevens said.

Trump is upside-down with women (40 percent positive, 58 percent think negatively about him) and voters who consider themselves in the evangelical lane (42 percent positive, 56 percent negative).

“One thing is clear: Trump is a very unusual candidate for a primary,” Stevens said.

18 hours on the Iowa caucuses campaign trail

5. Cruz’s downward spiral continues: He’s down 8 points since early December.

“The trend is your friend in the last days of a campaign, and Cruz is not on a good trend,” Stevens said. “That would scare the hell out of me if I were in Cruz's camp.”

If the vote had been in early January like it was during the 2012 presidential election cycle, Cruz appeared headed to a caucus win, leading in Iowa polling and buoyed by the endorsements of U.S. Rep. Steve King and Christian conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats.

But now, even in King's congressional district, where social conservatives dominate and Trump has visited just three times, Trump is up by 1 point. Cruz, in contrast, has stopped in every county in the state.

Cruz’s favorability has dropped 11 percentage points, from 76 percent to 65 percent, since early January.

6. But Cruz is stronger than Trump, if you look beyond the horse-race numbers.

There’s an appreciation for Cruz even among those who aren’t intending to vote for him, Selzer said.

Cruz has the greatest depth of knowledge and experience in the field, a plurality of likely caucusgoers say.

GOP caucusgoers are more comfortable with Cruz winning the nomination, becoming president and representing the United States to the world than they are with Trump.

If the race eventually comes down to two Republicans, 53 percent say they would prefer Cruz as the nominee, not Trump. Just 35 percent would choose Trump in a one-on-one contest with Cruz.

“Shake this all together and throw it out on the dice board, and I would predict that Cruz will win,” Stevens said.

7. If Iowa Republicans didn’t like Trump's decision to skip this week's debate, there’s little sign they’re holding it against him.

Forty-six percent of likely caucusgoers say they don’t care that he boycotted Fox News’ event, the final match-up before the vote.

Just 29 percent say they disapprove, while 24 approve of Trump's choice, which was announced the day this poll went into the field.

8. Gov. Terry Branstad's call for Cruz's defeat doesn't appear to hurt him.

Seventy-seven percent say it makes no difference to them that less than two weeks before the vote, the Iowa governor publicly described Cruz as "the biggest opponent of renewable fuels" and a politician who "could be very damaging to our state."

Eleven percent say Branstad's opposition makes them less likely to support Cruz, but that's balanced by the 11 percent who say they're actually more likely to back Cruz thanks to Branstad.

9. Should rivals have turned their fire on Trump earlier?

Almost everyone saw their favorability rating take a hit, the poll shows. Cruz’s is down 11 points, as is Christie’s. Bush’s dropped 6 points, Paul’s 5 points, Trump’s 4 points, Rubio’s 3 points, and Carson’s 1 point.

The explosion of end-of-the-race attacks and negative TV ads likely contributed.

If Cruz pulls up short on Monday, the question will linger: Was his earlier strategy to embrace Trump a mistake?

For months, Cruz refused to criticize Trump, in an apparent bid to avoid his ire and inherit his support when Trump faltered. But Trump didn’t falter. He ruthlessly turned his howitzers on Cruz, most notably for his birth in Canada and his Wall Street loans.

“One of this cycle's great mysteries is why both Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush didn't provide more information to voters earlier about Donald Trump,” Stevens said.

Both had super PACs with vast resources, but they were largely silent as Trump grew in strength.

“By trying to be Trump's best friend, Cruz was feeding the alligator, hoping it would eat him last,” Stevens said. “That never works.”

10. If voters change their mind at the last minute, Cruz benefits most.

Among Carson's backers, a plurality name Cruz as their second choice. The same is true of Trump's voters, and of Rubio's voters.

Among those who could still be persuaded to pick a different candidate, it’s a very close race, with Cruz leading, then Trump and Rubio right behind.

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted January 26-29 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 602 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 602 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers contacted 3,019 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list.

Questions based on the subsamples of 602 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 602 likely Republican caucus attendees each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.