IOWA CAUCUSES

Straw Poll meeting offers clues on who will participate

Jennifer Jacobs
jejacobs@dmreg.com

Representatives for seven presidential hopefuls showed up Thursday morning for an information-only meeting on the Iowa Straw Poll, a beleaguered event that state party officials want to keep alive despite years of criticism.

That offered some clues as to which contenders intend to compete in the straw poll — and who is more likely to skip it. Teams in attendance Thursday morning: Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, Carly Fiorina and Rick Perry.

It's not clear if that list could represent participation that's substantial enough to keep the party fundraiser afloat financially or relevant in the eyes of the media, which have in the past covered it extensively.

Republican Party of Iowa officials stressed this week that attendance at the meeting would not signify that a contender was officially committing to compete in the straw poll, scheduled for Aug. 8 at the Central Iowa Expo in Boone.

The most concrete commitment is from Trump, a New York entrepreneur who told The Des Moines Register last week that he'll sign up if he decides to join the presidential race. Retired surgeon Ben Carson is in, a spokesman told the Register. When asked in late April if he'll compete, Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz told the New York Times: "Yes." But Cruz's staff has since said that he is still undecided.

The straw poll is political theater that in recent presidential election cycles has drawn hundreds of reporters eager for easy access to the pack of GOP presidential contenders, even as pundits from some national media outlets belittled the event for giving false hope to long shots. Advocates have argued its real purpose is to help whittle the field — and the 2016 GOP field is particularly large; 15 are currently competing in Iowa.

Some presidential contenders — including Jeb Bush, Graham and Mike Huckabee — have already firmly declared that they won't compete in this year's straw poll.

A representative for Graham, a U.S. senator from South Carolina, showed up at Thursday's informational meeting. But his Iowa strategist, Tracie Gibler, told the Register his position on participating in the straw poll hasn't changed; she came to listen to the information presented "out of respect for the party and the chairman."

Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said in a memo Wednesday that party officials would use the meeting, at state GOP headquarters in Des Moines, to answer "logistical questions regarding the setup and production of the Straw Poll, which is, by design, different from past straw polls."

Earlier this month, party officials announced they'll provide free tent space and utilities for the campaigns — a response to complaints from past campaigns about feeling bilked by the fees charged by the party. And party officials are doing their best to spin the straw poll as simply a fun event, with State Fair-style food vendors and an unscientific poll that shouldn't be taken too seriously. In the past, the straw poll vote was interpreted to have such high significance that it caused some candidates who did worse than expected to drop out of the race.

Strategists for Marco Rubio, a U.S. senator from Florida, have said he's running a lean campaign, which means it's highly unlikely he'll spend money competing in straw polls. A spokesman told the Register last week that every dollar will likely go toward the caucuses and later primary votes. Read: No Iowa Straw Poll.

Rubio didn't send a representative to Thursday's meeting. Nor did Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, who declared last week in an opinion piece in the Register that he won't compete in the straw poll because he has concluded it "will serve only to weaken conservative candidates." The Register reported earlier in May that Bush, a former Florida governor, had RSVP'ed to speak at the RedState Gathering in Georgia on the day of the Iowa Straw Poll. And Graham told Radio Iowa in an interview in March that he'd "take a pass" on the straw poll.

Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul didn't send anyone to the meeting Thursday, either, which raised doubts about his interest in competing in the straw poll.

There were no representatives Thursday from the teams for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who recently told the Register he's not a presidential candidate yet so any straw poll decision would be premature. Aides for Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal told the Register their lawyers cautioned them against participating in such meetings if Jindal is not an official presidential candidate. He had no aide there Thursday.

Kaufmann, the Iowa GOP chairman, said in his memo Wednesday that several Republicans considering presidential bids "expressed concerns that their participation in these preliminary meetings will trigger 'candidate' status under federal election laws and require them to register as candidates with the Federal Election Commission." Kaufmann said that's not true. The trigger is when the individual "raises or spends more than $5,000 and engages in activities indicating that he or she has decided to run for a particular office," he said.

Several contenders who sent aides to Thursday's meeting are still weighing straw poll play, including Christie, the governor of New Jersey; Fiorina, a former tech company CEO; and Perry, a former governor of Texas, their aides said.

But some national publications have already predicted doom. "Iowa Straw Poll on death watch," the Hill wrote. The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza wrote last week after Huckabee's announcement that the straw poll's relevance has shrunk substantially.

UPDATE ON STRAW POLL PLAYERS

IN: Donald Trump*, Ben Carson. (Trump has said he's in if he joins the presidential race.)

MAYBES: Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal. (Have sent some signals they're considering coming.)

OUT: Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio. (Rubio staffers have signaled his attendance is unlikely; the others are a firm no.)

UNCERTAIN: Rand Paul, George Pataki, Rick Santorum, Scott Walker. (No strong signals either way.)

NOTE: Due to an editing error, an earlier version of this story incorrectly said that a Bobby Jindal representative attended the informational meeting about the Iowa Straw Poll at GOP headquarters in Des Moines on Thursday.