IOWA CAUCUSES

State of the race 6 months before Iowa caucuses

Jennifer Jacobs
jejacobs@dmreg.com

How this pulse check was done:

To size up how Iowa-centric the candidates' schedules are, the Republicans and Democrats are ranked in order of days spent in Iowa since the day after the 2012 election through Saturday. To qualify as a day spent in Iowa, a candidate must hold an event with some aspect of public involvement. In the case of a tie, the candidate who has staged the most events is listed higher.

  • The polling number is their rolling average in Iowa from RealClearPolitics.com as of midnight Friday.
  • The cash is the amount they reported to the Federal Election Commission on June 30.
  • The strategy is one that, if employed at the exact right time, could win Iowa.
  • Staff and offices numbers were compiled by the Register.
  • Information is not included on the war chests of super political action committees allied with the candidates. The filing deadline for those committees was Friday. Super PACs cannot legally coordinate activities with a candidate, but are expected to spend more money than ever this cycle to buy advertising and handle what traditionally have been campaign organizing functions.

Rick Santorum

1. RICK SANTORUM

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 37.
  • Polling in Iowa: 2.8 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 10.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: One of the biggest headlines for Santorum so far was about how just one Iowan showed up to one of his campaign events last month. The former Pennsylvania U.S. senator, who triumphed over Mitt Romney by just 34 votes in a messy certified count of Iowa caucus results in 2012, has said he'll keep packing in the miles even if Iowans aren't packing in to see him.
  • Hallmark issue: Economic revival for the blue-collar worker.
  • Cash: $232,000.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 2.
  • Iowa offices: None.
  • Strategy: Activate his constituency from 2012 and become the surprise winner in Iowa a second time.

MORE: Des Moines Register - Iowa Caucuses coverage

Rick Perry

2. RICK PERRY

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 36.
  • Polling in Iowa: 3.5 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 9.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: The former Texas governor is still remembered as the "oops" candidate who in the 2012 race blanked on one of the federal departments he had pledged to eliminate, but he has rebranded himself as a jobs candidate, the one who ran the 12th-largest economy in the world for 15 years. With the recent rise of Donald Trump, Perry's signature role has been Trump critic in chief.
  • Hallmark issue: Border security.
  • Cash: $884,000.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 10.
  • Iowa offices: None.
  • Strategy: Use time to his advantage, something he didn't have with his late entry into the race in mid-August 2011, his backers say.

Mike Huckabee

3. MIKE HUCKABEE

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 28 (tied with Bobby Jindal).
  • Polling in Iowa: 7 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 6 (tied with Ted Cruz).
  • Campaign in a nutshell: The come-from-behind winner of the 2008 Iowa caucuses was seen as that cycle's anti-establishment choice. This time, he faces rough-and-tumble competition for that vote. One way Huckabee separates himself is to say he's the only one who has run against the "Clinton political machine." He never directly competed with Bill or Hillary Clinton, but had to deal with their money and influence in Arkansas, he says.
  • Hallmark issue: Protect Israel.
  • Cash: $885,000.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 5.
  • Iowa offices: 1.
  • Strategy: Work the Pizza Ranch approach, employing the hand-to-hand combat that is retail campaigning.

Bobby Jindal

3. BOBBY JINDAL

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 28 (tied with Mike Huckabee).
  • Polling in Iowa: 2.5 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 11 (tied with Carly Fiorina).
  • Campaign in a nutshell:The Louisiana governor, who gained a reputation as a brainy policy wonk, is focusing on social conservative issues, including religious freedom and opposition to same-sex marriage. After his campaign conducted its own poll July 19-21, which reportedly showed a rise to 8 percent, India West newspaper reported a Jindal "surge" in Iowa. He's the first Indian-American to run for the White House.
  • Hallmark issue: Religious liberty.
  • Cash: $514,000.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 3.
  • Iowa offices: None.
  • Strategy: Break away from religious conservative candidates such as Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz.

Ted Cruz

5. TED CRUZ

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 24.
  • Polling in Iowa: 7 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 6 (tied with Mike Huckabee).
  • Campaign in a nutshell: The Texas U.S. senator is running as a steadfast conservative who has never flip-flopped on any of the major issues of the day, and as a Washington rebel who has proven he'll take on not only the Democrats but also his own party to break up what he calls the Washington cartel. He had one of the most aggressive responses condemning last month's U.S. Supreme Court ruling that made same-sex marriage a right nationwide; he called for measures to limit the justices' tenure.
  • Hallmark issue: Repeal Obamacare.
  • Cash: $8.53 million.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 2.
  • Iowa offices: None.
  • Strategy: Cruz can succeed in the Iowa caucuses by winning all of the tea party vote, a chunk of the liberty movement activists who were loyal to Ron Paul last election cycle, and a chunk of evangelicals, his backers say.

Martin O’Malley

6. MARTIN O'MALLEY

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 22 (tied with Bernie Sanders).
  • Polling in Iowa: 3.3 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa Democratic horse race: No. 3.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: He's the singalong candidate, who stands on chairs to strum an acoustic guitar and lead his Iowa audiences in folksy tunes. Before he sings for votes, he praises President Barack Obama and describes his own eight-year record as governor in Maryland. He ties with Sanders in spending more days Iowa than other Democratic candidates, but has yet to catch fire in the polls.
  • Hallmark issues: Immigration reform and combating climate change.
  • Cash: $1.31 million.
  • Paid Iowa staff: About 30.
  • Iowa offices: 3.
  • Strategy: Campaign harder than anyone else, working the underdog path in Iowa as a likeable, credible progressive candidate who could ultimately run up the middle between Sanders and Hillary Clinton, his backers said.

Bernie Sanders

6. BERNIE SANDERS

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 22 (tied with Martin O'Malley).
  • Polling in Iowa: 25.5 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa Democratic horse race: No. 2.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: He's calling for a liberal political revolution that "tells the billionaire class: 'You can't have it all,' " he says. Iowans have rewarded Sanders with the biggest crowd counts of anyone in the 2016 presidential race. He has declared he'll show respect for the other candidates in the race, he'll not engage in negative campaigning and will discourage any super political action committees from coming to his aid.
  • Hallmark issue: Rein in the greed of corporations and the wealthiest Americans and use government to help everyday people.
  • Cash: $12.16 million.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 43.
  • Iowa offices: 11.
  • Strategy: Convert big crowds into caucusgoers.


Rand Paul

8. RAND PAUL

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 20 (tied with Carly Fiorina).
  • Polling in Iowa: 7.3 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 5.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: Paul, a Kentucky eye doctor turned U.S. senator, started digging in deep in Iowa early, one of the first to hire staff. His backers point out that he consistently does well in national head-to-head matchups with Clinton.
  • Cash: $4.16 million.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 9.
  • Iowa offices: 1.
  • Strategy: Leverage the depth of commitment of his father's followers to the new Rand Paul brand. If the Rand Paul house is built on his father's foundation, activists will fill it to the attic with money and populate it with many of the 26,000 voters who turned out for his father in 2012.

Former Hewlett Packard (HP) CEO Carly Fiorina speaks about the economy during a panel at the Heritage Foundation on December 18, 2014 in Washington, DC. AFP PHOTO / SAUL LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

8. CARLY FIORINA

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 20 (tied with Rand Paul).
  • Polling in Iowa: 2.5 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 11 (tied with Bobby Jindal).
  • Campaign in a nutshell: The only woman in the GOP pack is taking the anti-Hillary Clinton approach, exhilarating her Iowa audiences with sharp criticism and the prospect of a fiery conservative woman going nose to nose with the likely Democratic nominee. Fiorina has diluted criticism about herself by telling Iowans that yes it's true she laid off 30,000 workers, but it made Hewlett-Packard stronger, and that yes she was fired after six years as CEO and that's because "when you lead, you challenge the status quo."
  • Hallmark issue: Use technology to engage citizens in government and to put pressure on the political system to make changes.
  • Cash: $991,000.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 2.
  • Iowa offices: None.
  • Strategy: Hillary, Hillary, Hillary. Fiorina said in Iowa last week: "The boys are going to fight, and I'm going to keep talking about the issues and the solutions." She doesn't throw elbows at her GOP rivals or talk much about President Barack Obama. She keeps the focus on Clinton.

Ben Carson

10. BEN CARSON

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 17.
  • Polling in Iowa: 7.8 percent.
  • Ranking in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 4.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: The calm, soft-spoken retired brain surgeon popped onto the conservative scene in a showdown with President Barack Obama at a prayer breakfast, and his message continues to be anti-Obama. He sings the same anti-politician tune as Donald Trump, but without the loud tenor. As a physician who operated on babies in the womb, Carson is committed to saving lives and raising money for anti-abortion organizations, his aides said.
  • Hallmark issue: Opposition to abortion and Planned Parenthood.
  • Cash: $4.75 million.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 5.
  • Iowa offices: 2.
  • Strategy: The $20 million super PAC Run Ben Run is working Iowa hard in Carson's favor, boosting his name ID with billboard advertisements, distributing free books to doorsteps, organizing for him and packing events that include straw poll votes with his fans.

Republican U.S. presidential hopeful, Sen. Lindsey Graham.

11. LINDSEY GRAHAM

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 16.
  • Polling in Iowa: 0.7 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 15.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: The witty South Carolina U.S. senator gets more laughter out of Iowa audiences than almost any other candidate. Earlier this month, the U.S. Air Force veteran made a humorous tutorial video on how to destroy a cellphone by meat cleaver, blender, lighter fluid and sword after a feuding rival, Donald Trump, gave his private number to the public. Graham's relaxed, jovial demeanor contrasts with fierce hawkishness on matters of national security and foreign affairs.
  • Hallmark issue: The nuclear deal with Iran and national defense.
  • Cash: $2.58 million.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 5.
  • Iowa offices: None, but the plan is to open one in August, aides said.
  • Strategy: Compete in Iowa, do well in New Hampshire and fight at least until the race reaches his home state of South Carolina, third among the early voting states, his backers said.

Hillary Clinton

12. HILLARY CLINTON

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 15 (tied with Jim Webb).
  • Polling in Iowa: 53.5 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa Democratic horse race: No. 1.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: Fears that she would avoid Iowa because she resented her third-place finish here in 2008 have not played out. This was the first place she came, both after she announced she was running this cycle and again after her formal speech in New York. She has battled a narrative that she's untrustworthy and that she hid information from the public by using a private home-based email server to conduct government business when she was U.S. secretary of state.
  • Hallmark issue: An economy that "works for everyone."
  • Cash: $28.85 million.
  • Paid Iowa staff: About 60.
  • Iowa offices: 11.
  • Strategy: Do everything it takes to win over Iowans. She has already visited 20 counties, and has put by far the largest staff on the ground.

Jim Webb

12. JIM WEBB

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 15 (tied with Hillary Clinton).
  • Polling in Iowa: 1.7 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa Democratic horse race: No. 4.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: The only combat veteran in the 2016 race, Webb pitches himself as the most qualified candidate on national security matters, saying he'd avoid blunders like the invasion of Iraq and destabilization of Libya that create threats like ISIS. Webb, a one-term U.S. senator from Virginia, spreads a message about economic fairness and social justice and stresses trust and keeping promises.
  • Hallmark issue: Foreign policy.
  • Cash: He filed his paperwork on July 14, after the June 30 financial disclosure deadline.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 1.
  • Iowa offices: None.
  • Strategy: Make it a three-way race for Democratic caucusgoers who question Bernie Sanders' electability or don't want to vote for Hillary Clinton, his backers say.

Chris Christie

14. CHRIS CHRISTIE

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 14
  • Polling in Iowa: 2.3 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 13.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: The New Jersey governor's status in Iowa is much different from 2012, when a team of conservatives flew east to beg him to get into the race. A high number of likely GOP caucusgoers have negative feelings about Christie, who made big headlines when confidants were criminally charged with orchestrating a bridge traffic jam as an act of political payback. His campaign has been parked in New Hampshire, but he has come to Iowa as frequently as Scott Walker.
  • Hallmark issue: Entitlement reform.
  • Cash: His presidential announcement date was June 30, the day of the financial disclosure deadline.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 2.
  • Iowa offices: None.
  • Strategy: Christie intends to include at least one town hall meeting on each trip to give Iowans a chance to ask him direct questions, aides said.

Scott Walker

15. SCOTT WALKER

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 13 (tied with Marco Rubio).
  • Polling in Iowa: 19.3 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 1.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: The Wisconsin governor is trying to appeal to all the factions in the GOP in Iowa as a fighter who has won conservative battles in a blue state and can do the same in Washington, D.C. He's a divisive figure back home, beset by criticism from Wisconsin Democrats. Walker faces scrutiny from the right for changing his messages on ethanol, immigration, gay marriage and abortion. He leans on a local-boy-done-good angle; he lived for several years in Plainfield, Ia., as a youth.
  • Hallmark issue: Pass a federal constitutional amendment to allow states to ban gay marriage.
  • Cash: Walker filed his paperwork on July 13, after the June 30 financial disclosure deadline.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 5.
  • Iowa offices: 1.
  • Strategy: Keep Iowa Republicans intrigued by a Walker candidacy by meeting as many of them as possible during a 99-county tour, his backers say.


Marco Rubio

15. MARCO RUBIO

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 13 (tied with Scott Walker).
  • Polling in Iowa: 6.3 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 8.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: The Florida U.S. senator is known for his charisma and youthfulness — he's the second-youngest in the race after Bobby Jindal — and for his message about building a better future. He suffers from a lack of organization in Iowa. Other hurdles include a battle to prove to voters a one-term senator has the experience to be president, and stiff competition from another Floridian, Jeb Bush. Rubio's path to the nomination could hinge on a finish ahead of Bush in Iowa and New Hampshire.
  • Hallmark issue: The future.
  • Cash: $9.86 million.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 2.
  • Iowa offices: None, but one will open in a few days.
  • Strategy: Become the first choice of a small committed base, and then the second choice for as many Iowans as possible, his backers said.

Donald Trump

17. DONALD TRUMP

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 12.
  • Polling in Iowa: 11.8 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 2.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: Trump tells Iowans he's using his own money to campaign; therefore he's not controlled by special interests, lobbyists or donors. With pithy one-liners and sharp-tongued zingers for his rivals, he has tapped into the deep frustration voters have with government gridlock.
  • Hallmark issue: He would "build the finest and most modern veterans hospitals in the world."
  • Cash: $488,000.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 10.
  • Iowa offices: None.
  • Strategy: Virtually unlimited personal resources mean anything can happen, especially in Iowa, his backers said.

Jeb Bush

18. JEB BUSH

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 7.
  • Polling in Iowa: 9.8 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 3.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: Although his campaign is billed as the establishment standard, Bush emphasizes conservative victories on school choice, tax cuts and crusades against public unions as Florida governor. Some Iowa conservatives express distaste for his support for a path to legal status for illegal immigrants and for state-based education standards known as Common Core, but his backers see a path in Iowa by uniting economic conservatives, Catholic voters and education reform advocates.
  • Hallmark issue: 4 percent economic growth.
  • Cash: $8.35 million.
  • Paid Iowa staff: 9.
  • Iowa offices: 1.
  • Strategy: His Iowa backers predict that a campaign appearance from his brother, who maintains high approval ratings among Republicans here, could be a popular move.

Democratic presidential candidate and former governor of Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee

19. LINCOLN CHAFEE

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 4.
  • Polling in Iowa: 0.3 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa Democratic horse race: No. 5.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: So far, there has been little but polite curiosity in Iowa for Chafee, a former Republican governor of Rhode Island who became an independent in 2007 and then a Democrat in 2013. But he has booked four trips to Iowa between now and the end of August.
  • Hallmark issue: Prosperity through peace.
  • Cash: $329,000.
  • Paid Iowa staff: None.
  • Iowa offices: None.
  • Strategy: Few political observers see a winning strategy for Chafee, but he told the Register, "I am in it to win."

Former New York Gov. George Pataki

20. GEORGE PATAKI

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 3.
  • Polling in Iowa: Not included in polling rolling average.
  • Rank in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 16.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: The former New York governor pitches himself as an optimist who can get things done. On a trip to Iowa earlier this month, he repudiated comments Trump made about Mexicans, then toured the Des Moines area to talk with Hispanic business leaders and do an interview with Spanish-language radio station La Reina.
  • Hallmark issue: Rewrite the federal tax code.
  • Cash: $208,000.
  • Paid Iowa staff: None.
  • Iowa offices: None.
  • Strategy: Pataki notes that he has never lost an election, but he has stopped short of laying out a plan for winning Iowa.

John Kasich

21. JOHN KASICH

  • Days spent in Iowa this cycle: 2.
  • Polling in Iowa: 1.8 percent.
  • Rank in Iowa GOP horse race: No. 14.
  • Campaign in a nutshell: The second-term Ohio governor, a former 18-year congressman, has mostly skipped Iowa in favor of New Hampshire and South Carolina.
  • Hallmark issues: Balance the budget and rebuild the military.
  • Cash: He filed his paperwork on July 21, after the June 30 financial disclosure deadline.
  • Paid Iowa staff: None.
  • Iowa offices: None.
  • Strategy: He's more focused on New Hampshire than Iowa, his backers said.

former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore

22. JIM GILMORE

The former Virginia governor announced his bid for the Republican nomination on Wednesday. In an announcement video, he said he is running to "return America to the policies of a dynamic, entrepreneurial free-market economy and a policy of peace-through-strength for our national security." He has campaigned in Iowa one day, speaking at U.S. Rep. Steve King's Iowa Freedom Summit in January.