Exclusive: Iowa GOP to revisit fate of straw poll

Friday could be the day the Iowa Straw Poll dies.

The governing board for the Republican Party of Iowa will revisit going forward with the event during a conference call Friday morning, as some party officials resign themselves to the view that the much-criticized party fundraiser could potentially damage Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses, GOP insiders told The Des Moines Register Wednesday.

Back in January, the Iowa GOP board voted 16-0 to proceed with the straw poll, a tradition dating to 1979. It's a daylong political festival meant to showcase the party's presidential candidates and to bring Iowa Republicans together for food, music and field-winnowing. This year, it's scheduled for Aug. 8 at the Central Iowa Expo near Boone.

TIMELINE: History of wins, losses, criticism at Iowa Straw Poll

The fresh discussion signals nervousness among state party leadership about the wisdom of spending money to organize for an event that is a regular target of criticism — and that appears on the verge of falling flat because so many presidential contenders are steering clear of it. Some candidates have said they might show up to give a speech, but won't spend money trying to win the straw poll. That could mean the fundraiser would struggle to break even, much less garner hundreds of thousands for the party as it has in the past.

If the board does indeed kill the straw poll, it would bring to pass what Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad called for at the end of the 2012 presidential election cycle, and would end a litany of straw poll criticism that some Republicans worry is fueling a desire to diminish Iowa's place in the presidential selection process.

Critics for years have blasted Iowa Republicans for taking "two bites of the apple": holding tight to their prestigious role as the first state in the nation to vote in the presidential nomination contest, and also hosting the straw poll. The straw poll in past cycles has been one of the most high-profile events on the election calendar, drawing a slate of White House hopefuls and a slew of national media. But detractors say the straw poll buoys long-shot candidates with little chance of winning the GOP nomination.

Candidate participation makes or breaks the success of the straw poll, and this year's event, scheduled for Aug. 8, suffered major blows when three major 2016 contenders — Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee and Marco Rubio — decided not to spend money to compete.

Scott Walker, the frontrunner in Iowa polling, has dodged questions about whether he's in for the straw poll by saying he's not an official presidential candidate yet. But Walker telegraphed disinterest by not sending aides to straw poll planning meetings, even after party officials secured a legal opinion that assured contenders who weren't yet official candidates that they could participate in the meetings without triggering a requirement that they formally announce.

State GOP leaders, under national scrutiny for signs that the pressure they're putting on candidates to compete in the straw poll has turned into bullying, have in recent weeks begun downplaying the straw poll. Instead, they have talked up how Iowa can't put a price tag on its first-in-the-nation voting privileges.

Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann earlier this year was one of the chief cheerleaders for the straw poll, but last week told the Register "the straw poll is the least important of all the mechanisms that Iowa has in picking a candidate. ... We start talking about the caucuses, then we're talking about the meat and potatoes."

On Wednesday, Kaufmann and other Iowa GOP officials declined to comment on Friday's scheduled conference call. Multiple sources confirmed the fate of the straw poll would be discussed.

But other leaders have begun to push the message that it's more important for Republicans to keep their eye on the ball — the Iowa caucuses — and to avoid anything that reflects poorly on that marquee event.

Will Rogers, chairman of the Polk County GOP, was one of 156 GOP leaders who wrote a guest opinion piece published in the Register May 29 urging the 2016 contenders to play in the straw poll.

But Rogers said Wednesday: "I don't think the straw poll is absolutely critical to the success of the GOP candidates. It gives some of the candidates the opportunity to get in front of more people, and the media pays a little more attention to them, but I certainly don't think it's a deal breaker for candidates."

A late May Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll showed that 51 percent of GOP likely caucusgoers think it's important for a presidential candidate to attend the straw poll; 47 percent don't think it's important.

But the straw poll does have some passionate backers who say it gives budget-conscious, anti-establishment candidates a shot at the White House.

Drew Ivers, chairman of Ron Paul's Iowa campaign in 2012, told the Register Wednesday he would be unhappy to see it scrapped. "The Ames Straw Poll is a magnificent fundraiser. It's a magnificent statewide event, and it's a superb national event that should stay alive and function," he said.

Ivers said he thinks if the straw poll dies, it will be due to ripple effects from Branstad's declaration in 2012 that it had "outlived its usefulness."

Criticism like that sheds a negative light on the caucuses, too, argued Ivers, who has found himself at odds with Branstad in the past.

"If people like Scott Walker say, 'Well, the Ames straw poll isn't important because, like the governor says, it's been commandeered by the grassroots right,' well, then the same thing applies to the caucuses. It's a pretty easy leap in terms of logic to take the next step and say the caucuses aren't important."

In 2012 at the national convention in Tampa, Ivers and a crew of Paul backers caused feelings of ill will from some Republicans in other states toward Iowa. Paul backers who were delegates to the convention cast their votes for Paul instead of the Republican the party had gathered to nominate: Mitt Romney. Some Republicans nationally considered the incident an embarrassing display of rebellion, as well as a disservice to Iowa caucus voters who had selected Rick Santorum and Romney as their top two picks.

The image of the Iowa caucuses also suffered a blow nationally in 2012 when the initial count giving the win to Romney was overturned by a final count that made Santorum the victor.

Some Iowa Republicans have told the Register that they worry that if they refuse to let go of the straw poll that Iowa, already on thin ice because of the Tampa incident and miscount, could be in trouble when it comes time for national GOP officials to decide whether to preserve the state's first-in-the-nation status.