IOWA CAUCUSES

Santorum faces steep climb to win Iowa again, experts say

William Petroski
bpetrosk@dmreg.com

Don't count out 2012 Iowa caucuses winner Rick Santorum, who was given little chance to win in Iowa last time, as he launches a second try for the Republican presidential nomination, Iowa political experts say.

Santorum, 57, who represented Pennsylvania for 12 years in the U.S. Senate and four years in the House, made his 2016 presidential candidacy official Wednesday in a speech before a cheering crowd in Butler County, Pa.

"I offer a full vision for America - one that is clear and conservative," he declared. He proposed scrapping the federal tax code and replacing it with a simple flat tax; promised efforts to strengthen families and improve schools, and vowed to stand behind American workers.

Santorum won 11 states — including a belated victory in Iowa — in a low-budget, grassroots 2012 presidential campaign that appealed strongly to Christian conservatives. But he faces a steep climb to win the caucuses again, experts say: He's competing in a larger, more talented field of Republican candidates than last time, and he's lost a slew of key Iowa campaign operatives who are working for his rivals.

"The question is, 'How difficult is that path?'" said University of Iowa political scientist Tim Hagle.

Santorum once again faces a crowded field of Republicans vying for social conservatives' support, Hagle said. But he suggested the GOP contest may be even more complicated this cycle, as candidates such as Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker seek backing from establishment Republicans and social conservatives, and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz appeals to libertarians and social conservatives.

Santorum, grandson of an Italian immigrant, has rebranded himself for this campaign as an advocate for blue-collar workers who have been left behind as the national economy has recovered. His endorsement of an increase in the minimum wage sets him apart among candidates who favor free-market policies, along with his contention that the GOP needs to stand for more than cutting taxes and balancing the budget.

So how can Santorum win in the 2016 Iowa caucuses? For starters, he already has earned a reputation as a relentless campaigner.

He appeared at 385 events in Iowa in all 99 counties in the run-up to the 2012 caucuses, speaking to audiences that range from a handful of people to hundreds. Even before formally announcing his candidacy on Wednesday, Santorum had repeatedly visited Iowa in recent months.

He's scheduled to appear at 3 p.m. Thursday at the Machine Shed in Davenport and at 8 a.m. Friday at the Hy-Vee grocery store club room on West Broadway in Council Bluffs.

"Remember, this is all about expectations," says Drake University political scientist Dennis Goldford. He noted that in August 2011, Santorum came in fourth in the Iowa Republican Party's straw poll in Ames and claimed it showed his campaign had momentum. Then in the weeks heading into the 2012 Iowa caucuses, Santorum still trailed in the polls, but support ultimately shifted to his side as other candidates faltered and he surged at the finish line. On caucus night, Santorum was in a dead heat with former Massaschusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and was later declared the winner.

"People who follow thoroughbred racing will tell you there is always a reason why you actually run the race, and that is because the unexpected can happen," Goldford said. "So while it looks very uphill now for someone like Santorum, there is a reason why you actually have the caucuses."

Iowa State University political scientist Steffen Schmidt said Santorum should use his victory in the 2012 Iowa caucuses as a selling point.

"That is not too bad a credential. He can say, 'Why I won the last Iowa caucuses, and I hope you Republicans who supported me in all 99 counties and went out for me on caucus night will come back and see that I still offer you the same thing that made you vote for me then,'" "Schmidt said.

SANTORUM IN IOWA:

But Schmidt says Santorum will also need to make an effective case why he's better than Walker, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Lousiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and others who also appeal to faith-based Republicans. He also needs to explain what he has been doing to build a toolkit that would make him a good president, the professor said.

One area of emphasis in Santorum's Iowa speeches has been his foreign policy experience gained in the U.S. Senate. He says he stands clearly with Israel, and he warns that President Barack Obama has been negotiating away the security of the United States to Iran.

"You are going to have a tough job to decide who is the right person for Iowa to send forth," Santorum told Iowa Republicans at the recent Lincoln Dinner in Des Moines.

Bob Vander Plaats, chief executive of the Family Leader, a Christian conservative advocacy group, personally endorsed Santorum in 2012 after serving as Huckabee's Iowa campaign chairman in 2008. He's undecided about 2016, but he thinks Santorum has the potential to win the Iowa caucuses again early next year.

Santorum works "awfully hard," Vander Plaats said, and he believes the ex-senator's second-place finish for the national GOP nomination in 2012 puts him in a good position this time. If Santorum had been able to defeat Mitt Romney in Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin in 2012, he might have emerged as the Republican nominee for the White House, Vander Plaats believes.

Santorum enters the 2016 race in the lower tier of recent polling. He's averaging 2.3 percent in the national RealClearPolitics polling average, and 3 percent in the RealClearPolitics average of Iowa polls. The caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 1, 2016.

Still, with about 15 Republicans either having officially announced campaigns or exploring a presidential bid, support for the GOP nomination is spread so thin it's way too early to start picking winners and losers, Schmidt said.

"We don't know what issues will come up, what things will boost candidates," he said.

SANTORUM LOSES KEY ALLIES

The list of defectors from Rick Santorum's 2012 Iowa campaign is significant. They include:

  • Chuck Laudner, a former executive director of the Iowa Republican Party, who gained fame during the last campaign as he ferried Santorum to campaign events in all 99 counties in a Ram 1500 pickup truck that became known as the "Chuck Truck." This time around, Laudner is working for businessman Donald Trump as he explores a Republican presidential candidacy.
  • Former Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz, a prominent social conservative who is is now the Iowa campaign chairman for Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz's presidential bid.
  • Nick Ryan, who worked on a super political action committee in support of Santorum in 2012, and his wife, Jill Latham Ryan, who was a senior adviser to Santorum. Both are now supporting former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's presidential campaign.
  • Jamie Johnson, a Republican Party leader known for his connections in evangelical Christian political circles, served as Santorum's coalitions director four years ago. Now he's organizing social and economic conservatives on behalf of former Texas Gov. Rick Perry's presidential campaign.

One key national ally from four years ago remains in Santorum's corner. Foster Friess, who gave more than $2 million to a pro-Santorum super PAC in 2012, told the Associated Press he will continue to support Santorum for the White House, although he plans to avoid large direct donations to the campaign or a supportive super PAC in an effort to have a lower profile.