CAUCUS IOWA POLLS

Where does Trump get GOP support? Just about everywhere

Jason Noble
jnoble2@dmreg.com

Donald Trump's appeal cuts across several of the Republican Party's various and often divergent factions, attracting pluralities of both tea-party and establishment voters to his candidacy.

That surprising development, revealed in the latest Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, helps explain his lead in the race for Iowa's first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses.

The billionaire businessman and media personality is the top choice for 30 percent of Iowa Republicans who identify with the tea party movement, 30 percent of business-oriented establishment Republicans and 16 percent of Christian conservatives.

"To a certain extent, it seems people see in Trump what they want to see," said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Register/Bloomberg poll. "He's thin on issue positions on purpose. Tea party supporters see him as anti-establishment. Business-oriented people see him the consummate businessman. And Christian conservatives see him as a man who says the Bible is his favorite book — even ahead of his bestselling 'Art of the Deal.'"

Overall, 23 percent of likely Republican caucus attendees call Trump their No. 1 choice, putting him 5 percentage points ahead of second-place Ben Carson.

And on top of that, his popularity among Republican activists appears to be surging: 61 percent of respondents report favorable feelings about him. That's a 34-percentage-point spike since the last Iowa Poll in May, and it moves his popularity into positive territory after months underwater.

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Several poll respondents said they appreciate Trump's status as a political outsider and his ability to force the discussion on difficult or impolitic issues.

"He's not a career politician, he's a businessman, and my God, the way things are going in this country I think it'd be great to have a businessman in the presidency," said poll respondent Jon Glahn, 75, of Camanche.

Julie Roe, 47, of Eldora is a Christian conservative who calls former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz her top choices. But she, too, sees Trump as a positive force in the race.

"I kind of like the way he has emboldened the rest of the Republican field," she said. "These other candidates tend to follow the same line of thinking that he's brought to the forefront, but he's just bolder in the way that he says them. And he's unafraid of the backlash."

Trump's primary appeal, among his supporters and Republicans overall, is his ability and willingness to "tell it like it is."

Thirty-seven percent of likely caucusgoers and 43 percent of Trump backers call that the most attractive thing about his candidacy.

"I think he is saying the things that need to be said, although not articulately sometimes, and not courteously. I think he could do a lot better that way," said Robert Kazimour, 80, the retired owner of a trucking company from Cedar Rapids. "But I do think he is touching on topics that need to be discussed."

A narrow plurality of poll respondents — 41 percent — say Trump cares more about "people like you" than "people like Donald Trump" (40 percent). Among Trump's supporters though, there's a wide belief that he's looking out for average Americans, with 72 percent saying he cares more about people like them.

Poll respondents are likewise divided on Trump's political ideology. Forty-one percent call him a "moderate" — which can be a kiss of death in the GOP caucuses — while 35 percent call him a "conservative." Among his supporters, a 47 percent plurality identifies him as "conservative" but 30 percent call him "moderate" and another 11 percent say he's "liberal."

For many, it's his personality rather than his ideology that makes the difference. A 65 percent majority of Trump's supporters say they're willing to put their trust in his ability to figure out the issues on the fly and don't need him to be clear about specific policies he'd address if elected.

The Republican ballot is filled with candidates of deep religious faith. But a 57 percent majority of likely GOP caucusgoers don't care that Trump, who says he's a Christian and goes to church, admits he has never has asked God for forgiveness.

That does bother 59 percent of likely caucusgoers who identify themselves as Christian conservatives. Yet he trails only retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson in support among that group (23 percent for Carson, 16 percent for Trump, followed by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz at 12 percent), noted pollster Selzer.

Poll respondents have great confidence in Trump's ability to handle economic and trade matters as president. Eighty-eight percent of likely caucusgoers say international trade would be a strength for Trump; 87 percent call creating jobs a strength and 84 percent say he'd be strong in improving middle-class economic conditions.

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"I think it's probably going to take someone like Trump who is almost apolitical or a nonpolitician to restructure the country and get the common people back on track," Kazimour said.

Trump rates worst on working with Congress (51 percent say that'd be a weakness for him as president) and improving race relations (47 percent call it a weakness).

In a consistent finding, caucusgoers split on whether understanding Iowa would be a strength (46 percent) or a weakness (45 percent) for Trump, Selzer said. Among business-oriented establishment caucusgoers, 57 percent say understanding Iowa would be a strength, as do 58 percent of those with less than a college degree.

For all the positive views revealed by the poll, though, even Trump's supporters expressed some surprise at his durability as a presidential candidate and wondered whether he could make it all the way to Election Day.

"I'm sure the Republicans will try to kill him," said Glahn, the Trump supporter from Camanche. "After all, the Republican Party is just as crooked as the Democratic Party. They don't want guys like that. They're in it as a business more or less and a lifetime career. They don't want Donald Trump. They'll try to get him out and they'll probably do it, too."

About the poll 

The Iowa Poll, conducted Aug. 23-26 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 400 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 404 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 2,975 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list. Interviews were administered in English Questions based on the subsamples of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 400 likely Republican caucus attendees each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error. For additional technical information about this study, contact Michelle Yeoman at myeoman@selzerco.com.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register is prohibited.