IOWA POLL

Iowa Poll: Trump blazes to lead; Carson quietly rises

Jennifer Jacobs
COPYRIGHT 2015, DES MOINES REGISTER AND TRIBUNE COMPANY

Donald Trump has built up tremendous support in Iowa — he's very wealthy, he loves the Bible and he'd be just terrific as president of the United States. And he's very handsome.

That's according to interviews with some likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa.

A new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll finds that Trump, the flamboyant real estate entrepreneur, has 23 percent support here. But Ben Carson, a soft-spoken retired neurosurgeon, has been a submarine, quietly cruising into second with 18 percent, just 5 percentage points from the front-runner.

Carson has the highest favorability rating of the 17 Republican candidates, with 79 percent who view him positively. Only 8 percent have negative feelings about him.

All the other candidates are grinding away in the single digits, in this order: Ted Cruz and Scott Walker (both 8 percent), Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio (both 6 percent), Carly Fiorina (5 percent), and Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul (both 4 percent).

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"Wow," said Kedron Bardwell, a political science professor at Simpson College. "This poll will have Republican consultants shaking heads in bewilderment. Not since 1992 has anti-establishment sentiment been this strong."

Bringing up the rear are Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal and John Kasich (all with 2 percent); Rick Perry and Rick Santorum (both 1 percent); and Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki (all with less than 1 percent).

'Mad as hell' voters drawn to outsiders

Candidates who are political outsiders don't seem to be just a summer fling, as some analysts had predicted, but a budding long-term relationship five months out from the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses.

Combine Trump, Carson and Fiorina — three candidates who have never been elected to any public office — and their support accounts for 46 percent of the vote.

Part of what's driving their ballot share is a "mad as hell" contingent. Forty-three percent of likely GOP caucusgoers say they're mad as hell about the Internal Revenue Service; 48 percent about Democrats in Congress; 57 percent with President Barack Obama; and 58 percent with Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.

They're not just mad at Democrats: Three-fourths are frustrated with Republicans in Congress, with 54 percent unsatisfied and 21 percent mad as hell.

Electing a nonpolitician is "becoming more important as I realize that the Republicans in Washington are no different than the Democrats," said retired engineer Craig Wiegel, 63, of Bettendorf, who participated in the Iowa Poll in May. "They tell you one thing until they're voted in, and then just go along with the Democrats."

Walker was his top choice in the May poll. Now, he is paying attention to Carson, too. Cruz, who castigates the "Washington cartel," is also a possibility, Wiegel said.

The Iowa Poll of 400 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Aug. 23-26 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Carson attracting Christian conservatives

Several poll respondents describe Carson as a kind Christian whom they can trust. Carson beats Trump with Christian conservatives (23 percent to 16 percent) and also with women (20 percent to 16 percent).

Melanie Hobbs, 45, of Sioux City, a stay-at-home mother who home-schools her seven kids, names Carson as her first choice because he's "totally against abortion, and that's one of our biggest issues."

Hobbs also thinks Carson aligns with her thinking on immigration.

"We need to build a fence. We need to stop the influx of illegals," she said.

As for Trump, who is viewed favorably by 54 percent of Christian conservatives, Hobbs said she has two thoughts: "One, he is better than what we have. But two, I'm not sure I trust him. I believe he could be a charlatan. I believe he could be telling us what we want to hear, then pull stuff like Obama has. Deceive us. I just don't know enough that I could trust him."

Will Iowans reveling in the Trump and Carson love fest wake up with a political hangover at some point and wonder what happened to that great crop of governors they used to talk about?

All of the governors — Walker, Bush, Huckabee, Christie, Jindal, Kasich, Perry, Gilmore, Pataki — talk up records of accomplishment, but that's not driving caucus commitments. Only four of the nine (Walker, Huckabee, Jindal and Perry) crack the 50 percent level in favorable views from likely caucusgoers.

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Negative feelings toward two long-term U.S. senators, Graham (59 percent) and Santorum (37 percent), also underscore the exact point caucusgoers say they don't want: prior service in elective office.

Skating over the thin ice, for now, are two first-term senators, Rubio and Cruz, part of the tight pack trailing the leaders, who earn favorable ratings from 67 percent and 61 percent, respectively.
"I'll be watching closely to see which GOP candidates veer wildly into the outsider lane, versus who will stay true to principle and their records, hoping to find a niche with more steady, establishment GOP voters," Bardwell said.

Trump now viewed favorably by most

In the last Iowa Poll, in May, Trump had the highest unfavorable rating of all the Republicans, back when he was tied for ninth place with 4 percent. Trump has almost completely reversed his rating. Then, 27 percent had positive feelings about him and 63 percent negative. Now, it's 61 percent positive, 35 percent negative.

"People asked if he could right the ship of his upside-down favorable scores. The answer is: Yes, hell yes," said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Register/Bloomberg Iowa Poll.

Poll respondents might not know many specifics about Trump's positions, but they don't really care. The majority of likely Republican caucusgoers say they're willing to put trust in their top candidate to figure out the issues once in office (57 percent).

Among Trump supporters, the feeling is even more widespread (65 percent).

Like Democrats in 2007 who looked for their savior in Barack Obama, Republicans in 2015 seem to be looking for their savior in Trump.

Scott Walker, governor of neighboring Wisconsin, led in two Iowa Polls earlier this year, in January and May. In July, Trump came to Iowa to ask Republicans to toss Walker off the first-place perch, and they complied.

"He's got that Type A personality to go out and get what he wants and not back down," said Trump supporter Garrison Reekers, 43, a deputy sheriff from Belle Plaine who considers himself a business-oriented establishment Republican. "There's too much money in politics, and Trump can afford to take care of himself, and then he doesn't have to put on somebody else's agenda."

Large swaths of likely caucusgoers from both parties share Reekers' frustration with the amount of money in politics. Forty percent of Republicans are mad as hell about it, and 61 percent of Democrats, their highest number in that category.

Respondents keeping their options open

The poll is bad news for Walker, who is collapsing in his firewall state, shedding half the support he had in May.
"I don't think he's dynamic enough at this point," said Christian conservative respondent Julie Roe, 47, of Eldora, who works in ag marketing.

Roe likes Huckabee and Cruz, and says she would never caucus for Bush, because "all he wants to do is make government bigger" and he has "no concept of how the real world lives" because he "has never lived anything close to a middle class life."

She also said she detests political dynasties.

Bush continues to struggle in Iowa. Only 45 percent of likely caucusgoers have favorable feelings about him; 50 percent view him negatively. Bush has yet to spend a dime on TV advertising here, but his super PAC launches ads in September, hoping to use its financial advantage to tell the story of Bush's conservative record to a larger audience.

Politics watchers also might be surprised to see Huckabee and Fiorina so far back. He's a previous winner of the Iowa caucuses, in 2008, and she's hot on the national scene after a widely praised national debate performance a month ago.

Dorothy Vos, 79, of Oskaloosa, a retired nurse and a farmer's wife, is among the 5 percent who back Fiorina. Carson is her No. 2. But she's still looking at almost everyone.

"I have a few I've totally ruled out, but all in all I'm very flexible," Vos said.

Ten percent of likely GOP caucusgoers are uncommitted or not sure of their first choice.

Every voter quoted in this article is keeping an open mind, expressing willingness to swap to a different first-choice candidate.

A prime example of likely caucusgoers' fickleness this cycle: In late May, 58 percent said they'd never caucus for Trump. Now, a combined 32 percent say he's their first or second choice, and he's cut in half his "would never support him" score (now 29 percent).

Poll respondent Barbara Olson, 63, of Burlington says Trump is now her first choice because of what he has said about stopping illegal immigration and repealing Obamacare, and because he's "a very good, savvy businessman."

"I think he could do a little different on his comb-over. Be a man, speak up: 'I'm bald,'" Olson said. "But he's a good guy, and he has very good ideas."

— Jason Noble contributed to this report

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted August 23-26 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 400 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 404 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 2,975 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state's voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list. Interviews were administered in English

Questions based on the subsamples of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 400 likely Republican caucus attendees each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

For additional technical information about this study, contact Michelle Yeoman at myeoman@selzerco.com.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register is prohibited.